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Brazil vs Mexico Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 30 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#19
Record6-2
FormWWWLL
Points / game90.8
Allowed / game78.1
vs
Position#10
Record5-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game93.7
Allowed / game81.8
EuropeWorld CupRound 4
Other2027
Meetings · Brazil v Mexico
30 Nov 2026
BRAZ v MEXI
upcoming
29 Aug 2022
BRAZ72
MEXI82
03 Jul 2021
BRAZ102
MEXI74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brazil win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mexico win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canada
#4
W
69-65
69
65
+4
A01/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
84-104
84
104
-20
H03/09
World Cup
Chile
#66
W
82-66
82
66
+16
A27/11
World Cup
Chile
#66
W
78-62
78
62
+16
H30/11
World Cup
Venezuela
#80
W
94-84
94
84
+10
H27/02
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
101-72
101
72
+29
H02/03
World Cup
Venezuela
#80
W
103-88
103
88
+15
A05/07
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
104-80
104
80
+24
A07/07
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
L
90-94
90
94
-4
H27/08
World Cup
Mexico
#10
L
74-79
74
79
-5
A01/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
11-24
18-15
24-13
20-22
22-23
21-36
21-23
17-10
21-24
25-18
19-14
25-16
22-9
14-26
17-11
28-17
25-21
19-19
22-27
23-13
32-24
21-8
25-27
29-24
17-15
23-23
34-26
33-21
35-18
15-21
21-20
29-18
29-32
14-25
18-19
23-24
21-30
14-13
16-12
167.3Avg total
87.9Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)90.878.1168.9+12.675%
Season at home (4)90.878.0168.8+12.875%
Season away (4)90.878.2169.0+12.575%
Last 10 (10)87.979.4167.3+8.570%
Last 5 (5)94.482.6177.0+11.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)69.065.0134.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (5)79.889.6169.4-9.80%
vs Weaker (24)87.471.3158.8+16.179%
This opponent (Mexico) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MexicoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#9
L
66-96
66
96
-30
A27/08
World Cup
Egypt
#27
L
72-100
72
100
-28
A29/08
World Cup
New Zealand
#11
W
108-100
108
100
+8
A31/08
World Cup
Jordan
#37
W
93-80
93
80
+13
A02/09
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
L
85-92
85
92
-7
H29/11
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
W
89-88
89
88
+1
A02/12
World Cup
Nicaragua
#88
W
99-72
99
72
+27
A27/02
World Cup
Nicaragua
#88
W
98-79
98
79
+19
H04/07
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
112-86
112
86
+26
H28/08
World Cup
Brazil
#19
W
79-74
79
74
+5
H01/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-32
17-21
17-23
15-20
16-30
19-29
21-18
16-23
31-22
26-19
21-27
30-32
24-24
19-19
25-22
25-15
23-17
20-25
15-26
27-24
24-28
23-26
20-9
22-25
22-21
27-10
21-16
29-25
22-22
27-19
25-17
24-21
28-25
26-17
28-23
30-21
24-23
30-21
13-14
12-16
176.8Avg total
90.1Scored
86.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)93.781.8175.5+11.883%
Season at home (4)93.582.8176.2+10.875%
Season away (2)94.080.0174.0+14.0100%
Last 10 (10)90.186.7176.8+3.470%
Last 5 (5)95.479.8175.2+15.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)75.491.7167.1-16.222%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.276.0155.2+3.264%
vs Weaker (7)95.474.6170.0+20.986%
This opponent (Brazil) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.5+6.5Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.5+6.5Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +0.8+0.8
BrazilMexico
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BrazilLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canada
#4
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A01/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-45
42
45
-3
H03/09
World Cup
Chile
#66
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A27/11
World Cup
Chile
#66
W
47-25
47
25
+22
H30/11
World Cup
Venezuela
#80
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H27/02
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
55-37
55
37
+18
H02/03
World Cup
Venezuela
#80
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A05/07
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
68-39
68
39
+29
A07/07
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
W
58-50
58
50
+8
H27/08
World Cup
Mexico
#10
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A01/09
World Cup
87.6Avg total
47.8Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.637.981.6+5.763%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.139.082.1+4.156%-
Last 30 away (14)44.336.781.0+7.671%-
Last 10 (10)47.839.887.6+8.070%-
Last 5 (5)54.243.898.0+10.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)27.037.064.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)44.849.494.2-4.620%-
vs Weaker (24)44.135.679.7+8.575%-
This opponent (Mexico) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MexicoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lithuania
#9
L
34-53
34
53
-19
A27/08
World Cup
Egypt
#27
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A29/08
World Cup
New Zealand
#11
W
57-41
57
41
+16
A31/08
World Cup
Jordan
#37
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A02/09
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H29/11
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#9
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A02/12
World Cup
Nicaragua
#88
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A27/02
World Cup
Nicaragua
#88
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H04/07
World Cup
Colombia
#55
W
54-42
54
42
+12
H28/08
World Cup
Brazil
#19
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H01/09
World Cup
91.5Avg total
46.5Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.640.482.0+1.257%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.839.881.6+2.057%-
Last 30 away (16)41.540.982.4+0.656%-
Last 10 (10)46.545.091.5+1.560%-
Last 5 (5)50.642.493.0+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)39.445.484.9-6.044%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.239.578.7-0.343%-
vs Weaker (7)49.335.785.0+13.6100%-
This opponent (Brazil) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Brazil wins
4
Mexico wins
DateGameScore
01/09/26Mexico v Brazil79-74
15/11/22Mexico v Brazil56-102
29/08/22Brazil v Mexico72-82
03/07/21Brazil v Mexico102-74
26/08/17Mexico v Brazil99-76
03/09/15Mexico v Brazil65-58
Brazillast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/26AMexico74-79
27/08/26HDominican Republic90-94
07/07/26AColombia104-80
05/07/26AVenezuela103-88
02/03/26HColombia101-72
27/02/26HVenezuela94-84
30/11/25HChile78-62
27/11/25AChile82-66
03/09/23HLatvia84-104
01/09/23ACanada69-65
Mexicolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/09/26HBrazil79-74
28/08/26HColombia112-86
04/07/26HNicaragua98-79
27/02/26ANicaragua99-72
02/12/25ADominican Republic89-88
29/11/25HDominican Republic85-92
02/09/23AJordan93-80
31/08/23ANew Zealand108-100
29/08/23AEgypt72-100
27/08/23ALithuania66-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brazil
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL75%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%75%75%
Points / game90.890.890.8
Allowed / game78.178.078.2
Point differential+12.6+12.8+12.5
Avg total168.9168.8169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%75%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mexico
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %83%75%100%
Points / game93.793.594.0
Allowed / game81.882.880.0
Point differential+11.8+10.8+14.0
Avg total175.5176.2174.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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