PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Butler hosts Western Carolina on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Butler the clear favourite, rating them 86% to win largely because of their 2-1 record, 92.0 points per game and 75.0 allowed per game, placing them 144th in the league, while Western Carolina also sits 2-1 with 97.0 points per game and 74.3 allowed per game, 131st. Butler's home form is flawless, 2-0 with 97.5 points per game and 62.5 allowed, and their last five games include a 99-65 win over Fairleigh Dickinson and a 96-60 win over Lafayette, though they suffered an 81-100 loss to Boise State away. Western Carolina's road record is 1-1, 77.5 points per game and 77.5 allowed, and their last five games feature a 136-68 home win over Virginia-Lynchburg and a 83-75 away win over UNC Asheville, offset by a 72-80 loss to North Carolina away. The model projects a 85-73 score, 158.5 total points, and an 86% probability that Butler covers the line, with a 3% chance of overtime. The next contest will test whether Butler can maintain their dominant home edge.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 92.0 | 75.0 | 167.0 | +17.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 97.5 | 62.5 | 160.0 | +35.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 81.0 | 100.0 | 181.0 | -19.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.9 | 77.2 | 157.1 | +2.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.6 | 77.4 | 165.0 | +10.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 71.4 | 84.4 | 155.8 | -13.0 | 12% |
| vs Similar (17) | 79.1 | 77.6 | 156.6 | +1.5 | 53% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 87.8 | 69.8 | 157.6 | +18.0 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 97.0 | 74.3 | 171.3 | +22.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (1) | 136.0 | 68.0 | 204.0 | +68.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 77.5 | 77.5 | 155.0 | +0.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 85.2 | 72.1 | 157.3 | +13.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.0 | 73.0 | 160.0 | +14.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 78.1 | 80.9 | 159.0 | -2.8 | 60% |
| vs Similar (13) | 75.2 | 81.5 | 156.8 | -6.3 | 23% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 96.6 | 64.7 | 161.3 | +31.9 | 86% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.2 | 35.8 | 72.9 | +1.4 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.8 | 33.5 | 72.3 | +5.3 | 61% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 34.8 | 39.2 | 73.9 | -4.4 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.7 | 35.6 | 76.3 | +5.1 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.6 | 37.2 | 80.8 | +6.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 33.8 | 41.2 | 75.0 | -7.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 36.6 | 34.5 | 71.2 | +2.1 | 59% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 44.4 | 31.2 | 75.6 | +13.2 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.8 | 36.1 | 75.9 | +3.7 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 44.2 | 33.8 | 77.9 | +10.4 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 36.9 | 37.7 | 74.6 | -0.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.5 | 32.2 | 73.7 | +9.3 | 90% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.6 | 33.0 | 77.6 | +11.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 37.4 | 36.1 | 73.5 | +1.3 | 70% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 36.5 | 38.7 | 75.2 | -2.2 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 49.4 | 31.4 | 80.9 | +18.0 | 100% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Boise State | 81-100 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 99-65 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Lafayette | 96-60 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Providence | 81-91 |
| 07/03/26 | A | DePaul | 81-71 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Creighton | 59-76 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Villanova | 73-82 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Xavier | 80-75 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Georgetown | 93-89 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Seton Hall | 56-63 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Virginia-Lynchburg | 136-68 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UNC Asheville | 83-75 |
| 03/11/26 | A | North Carolina | 72-80 |
| 08/03/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 67-69 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Mercer | 77-73 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Furman | 86-67 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Mercer | 78-74 |
| 21/02/26 | A | VMI | 81-62 |
| 19/02/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 91-77 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Chattanooga Mocs | 81-76 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 97.5 | 81.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.0 | 62.5 | 100.0 |
| Point differential | +17.0 | +35.0 | -19.0 |
| Avg total | 167.0 | 160.0 | 181.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 97.0 | 136.0 | 77.5 |
| Allowed / game | 74.3 | 68.0 | 77.5 |
| Point differential | +22.7 | +68.0 | +0.0 |
| Avg total | 171.3 | 204.0 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xavier | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 53.3 | +37.7 |
| 2 |  Uconn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 54.7 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  St. John's (N.Y.) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 62.3 | +28.3 |
| 4 |  DePaul | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 80.3 | 61.7 | +18.7 |
| 5 |  Georgetown | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.0 | +13.0 |
| 6 |  Seton Hall | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 67.0 | 54.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  Marquette | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 53.0 | +27.3 |
| 8 | Butler | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.0 | 75.0 | +17.0 |
| 9 |  Villanova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.3 | 66.3 | +16.0 |
| 10 |  Providence | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.0 | 59.3 | +13.7 |
| 11 |  Creighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.3 | 68.3 | +12.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Citadel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.3 | 61.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 | Western Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 74.3 | +22.7 |
| 4 |  NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 5 |  Samford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.0 | 73.0 | +10.0 |
| 6 |  VMI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.5 | 74.8 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 78.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.5 | 82.0 | +0.5 |
| 9 |  Chattanooga Mocs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 86.7 | 82.7 | +4.0 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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