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Butler vs Lafayette Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 96-60
54-34 42-26
Position#71
Record-
FormWLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Butler 🏆
USA
Vs
78%
22%
■ BUTL 78%■ LAFA 22%
Pythia win probability
Projected 78-70
Projected total 147.8
Lafayette
USA
Position#371
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Butler faces Lafayette in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Butler as the clear favourite at 78% because their projected 78 points far exceed Lafayette's 70 and the spread of -21.5 shows the model expects a decisive win. Butler's last five games include a 81-71 victory over DePaul, a 91-81 loss to Providence, and a 76-59 defeat by Creighton, while Lafayette's recent outings feature a 77-82 loss to Holy Cross, a 83-77 win over Army, and a 70-69 victory against Colgate, giving the visitors a 3-2 edge in their last five. Their head-to-head history is not listed, so no prior meetings are noted. Pythia projects a final score of 78-70 and a total of 147.8 points, with a 13% chance that Butler covers the -21.5 line and a 45% chance the game will go over the 149.5 total; the model also estimates a 4% probability of overtime. The game ends with Butler's 78 points, a concrete fact that anchors the preview.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Butler winWon
78.0%fair 1.28
Best odds1.02
Implied94.0%
Edge-16.0pp
Lafayette winLost
22.0%fair 4.55
Best odds26.00
Implied6.0%
Edge+16.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ButlerUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Providence
#246
L
87-97 OT
87
97
-10
A05/02
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
55-70
55
70
-15
A07/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
70-80
70
80
-10
H12/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
56-63
56
63
-7
H15/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
93-89
93
89
+4
A18/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Creighton
#238
L
59-76
59
76
-17
H04/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
81-71
81
71
+10
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
81-91
81
91
-10
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-32
39-41
28-32
27-38
38-41
32-39
24-23
32-40
54-45
39-44
47-28
33-47
28-42
45-40
36-32
23-44
39-32
42-39
42-40
39-51
152.9Avg total
73.5Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.579.4152.9-5.930%
Last 5 (5)74.879.0153.8-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)71.982.8154.6-10.912%
vs Similar (17)78.178.3156.4-0.253%
vs Weaker (5)87.670.0157.6+17.680%
LafayetteUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
American University
#204
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A31/01
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H05/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A07/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H12/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
69-78
69
78
-9
H14/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
86-83
86
83
+3
A18/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
61-75
61
75
-14
H22/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A26/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
83-77
83
77
+6
H28/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
L
77-82
77
82
-5
H04/03
NCAA
1H
2H
27-32
40-33
24-26
26-39
26-28
37-32
29-40
25-28
37-33
32-45
33-49
53-34
31-34
30-41
31-25
39-44
37-26
46-51
39-34
38-48
140.2Avg total
68.0Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)68.072.2140.2-4.250%
Last 5 (5)75.477.2152.6-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)66.778.6145.3-11.920%
vs Similar (15)71.171.5142.7-0.447%
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
57.6%
@ 1.47-5.8pp
Under 144.5
42.4%
@ 2.60+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
45.4%
@ 1.90-4.6pp
Under 149.5
54.6%
@ 1.90+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
33.8%
@ 2.60-2.9pp
Under 154.5
66.2%
@ 1.47+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Butler total 81.5Actual: Butler over 81.5
Over 81.5
37.5%
@ 1.44-25.5pp
Under 81.5
62.5%
@ 2.45+25.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Butler total 85.5 · main lineActual: Butler over 85.5
Over 85.5
23.6%
@ 1.93-26.4pp
Under 85.5
76.4%
@ 1.85+26.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Butler total 89.5Actual: Butler over 89.5
Over 89.5
13.1%
@ 2.70-20.4pp
Under 89.5
86.9%
@ 1.36+20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36
Lafayette total 60.5Actual: Lafayette under 60.5
Over 60.5
81.0%
@ 1.39+15.9pp
Under 60.5
19.0%
@ 2.60-15.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Lafayette total 64.5 · main lineActual: Lafayette under 64.5
Over 64.5
68.5%
@ 1.94+19.5pp
Under 64.5
31.5%
@ 1.85-19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Lafayette total 68.5Actual: Lafayette under 68.5
Over 68.5
53.5%
@ 2.65+19.2pp
Under 68.5
46.5%
@ 1.38-19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Butler -24.5Actual: Butler -24.5
BUTL -24.5
8.7%
@ 2.45-30.2pp
LAFA +24.5
91.3%
@ 1.55+30.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.30
LAFA
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.47
Spread Butler -21.5 · main lineActual: Butler -21.5
BUTL -21.5
13.2%
@ 2.02-35.3pp
LAFA +21.5
86.8%
@ 1.90+35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.96
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
LAFA
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Spread Butler -18.5Actual: Butler -18.5
BUTL -18.5
19.4%
@ 1.67-37.3pp
LAFA +18.5
80.6%
@ 2.30+37.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BUTL
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.55
LAFA
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: -7.2-7.22nd half: -2.9-2.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: -7.2-7.22nd half: -2.9-2.9
ButlerLafayette
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ButlerLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Providence
#246
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A05/02
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A07/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H12/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
W
24-23
24
23
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A18/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A26/02
NCAA
Creighton
#238
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H04/03
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A07/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H11/03
NCAA
71.7Avg total
37.0Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)37.235.372.5+1.957%50%
Last 30 at home (17)38.233.571.7+4.659%53%
Last 30 away (13)35.937.573.5-1.654%46%
Last 10 (10)37.034.771.7+2.370%40%
Last 5 (5)38.434.873.2+3.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)35.239.674.9-4.438%62%
vs Similar (17)35.734.470.1+1.459%35%
vs Weaker (5)45.431.476.8+14.080%80%
LafayetteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
American University
#204
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
24-26
24
26
-2
H05/02
NCAA
Army
#318
L
26-28
26
28
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Loyola Maryland
#314
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H12/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H14/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A18/02
NCAA
American University
#204
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Colgate
#168
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A26/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H28/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/03
NCAA
64.1Avg total
31.4Scored
32.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)31.835.367.2-3.527%37%
Last 30 at home (15)33.734.468.1-0.733%47%
Last 30 away (15)29.936.366.2-6.320%27%
Last 10 (10)31.432.764.1-1.340%20%
Last 5 (5)34.233.667.8+0.660%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)31.336.768.1-5.413%47%
vs Similar (15)32.333.966.3-1.640%27%
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Butler win
BUTL win
no forecast
@ 1.06
LAFA win
no forecast
@ 9.25
1st half Spread Butler -10.5 · main lineActual: Butler -10.5
BUTL -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
LAFA +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Butler 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: Butler over 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Lafayette 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Lafayette over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Butler -11.5Actual: Butler -11.5
BUTL -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
LAFA +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Butler -9.5Actual: Butler -9.5
BUTL -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
LAFA +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Butler -12.5Actual: Butler -12.5
BUTL -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
LAFA +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Butler -8.5Actual: Butler -8.5
BUTL -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
LAFA +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Spread Butler -13.5Actual: Butler -13.5
BUTL -13.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
LAFA +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Butler -7.5Actual: Butler -7.5
BUTL -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
LAFA +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.85
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.85
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Butler (regulation)
BUTL
no forecast
@ 1.08
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
LAFA
no forecast
@ 8.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BUTL win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
LAFA win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BUTL leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Lafayette +1571.8%3.20
Bet365
3.20		----+42.8ppLost
Lafayette +1777.6%2.65
Bet365
2.65		----+42.5ppLost
Lafayette +1674.8%2.85
Bet365
2.85		----+42.3ppLost
Lafayette +1880.1%2.40
Bet365
2.40		----+41.3ppLost
Lafayette +1982.5%2.22
Bet365
2.22		----+40.9ppLost
Lafayette +15.572.7%2.85
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.70		---+40.1ppLost
Lafayette +16.575.5%2.60
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.50		---+39.8ppLost
Lafayette +2084.6%2.05
Bet365
2.05		----+39.5ppLost
Lafayette +17.578.2%2.40
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.30		---+39.4ppLost
Lafayette +2186.5%1.91
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.86		---+37.5ppLost
Lafayette +18.580.6%2.16
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07		--+37.3ppLost
Lafayette +19.582.8%2.04
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.96		--+36.8ppLost
Lafayette +2288.2%1.77
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75		---+35.8ppLost
Lafayette +21.586.8%1.81
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.75		+35.3ppLost
Lafayette +20.584.9%1.89
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83		-+35.2ppLost
Lafayette +2389.8%1.68
Bet365
1.68		----+34.8ppLost
Lafayette +23.589.9%1.62
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.55		--+33.6ppLost
Lafayette +2491.2%1.60
Bet365
1.60		----+33.3ppLost
Lafayette +22.588.4%1.68
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.62		-+33.1ppLost
Lafayette +2592.4%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+31.2ppLost
Lafayette +24.591.3%1.51
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.47		---+30.2ppLost
Butler under 85.576.4%1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78		+26.4ppLost
Butler under 8575.7%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85		---+26.1ppLost
Butler under 84.573.2%1.93
Betano
1.93		----+25.3ppLost
Butler under 86.579.4%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+23.5ppLost
Butler under 87.582.1%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+22.4ppLost
Butler under 88.584.6%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+21.6ppLost
Lafayette over 6470.9%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+20.7ppLost
Lafayette over 63.571.9%1.81
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.72		--+20.5ppLost
Butler under 89.586.9%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+20.4ppLost
Butler under 90.588.9%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+19.4ppLost
Lafayette over 62.575.2%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+17.7ppLost
Lafayette over 61.578.2%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+16.7ppLost
Lafayette over 60.581.0%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+15.9ppLost
Lafayette over 58.585.9%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+15.8ppWon
Lafayette over 59.583.6%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+15.1ppWon
Under 156.570.5%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35		---+2.6ppWon
Under 15772.0%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+2.0ppWon
Under 157.572.6%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+1.1ppWon
Butler (regulation)75.7%1.03
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.03		----13.6ppWon
Butler win78.0%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01		--16.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Butler wins
0
Lafayette wins
No previous meetings.
Butlerlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HProvidence81-91
07/03/26ADePaul81-71
04/03/26HCreighton59-76
26/02/26AVillanova73-82
21/02/26HXavier80-75
18/02/26AGeorgetown93-89
15/02/26HSeton Hall56-63
12/02/26HUconn70-80
07/02/26AMarquette55-70
05/02/26AProvidence87-97 OT
Lafayettelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26HHoly Cross77-82
28/02/26HArmy83-77
26/02/26AColgate70-69
22/02/26HAmerican University61-75
18/02/26AHoly Cross86-83
14/02/26HLehigh69-78
12/02/26HLoyola Maryland54-68
07/02/26AArmy63-60
05/02/26HNavy50-65
31/01/26AAmerican University67-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Butler
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 149.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Lafayette
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 149.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
2 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
3 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Loyola Maryland1010%58.080.0-22.0
2 Army1010%50.084.0-34.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Butler544296
Lafayette342660
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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