California Baptist faces Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the NCAA on 13 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating California Baptist as the clear favourite, assigning it a 97% chance to win largely because the team has scored 64.3 points per game while allowing 82.7, and has a 0-3 record, yet the model still rates them highly relative to Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which has scored 50.3 points per game and allowed 107.0, also 0-3; both teams are at the bottom of their league positions, 372 and 497 respectively, but California Baptist's home record of 0-2 with 62.5 points per game and 76.0 allowed is slightly better than Arkansas-Pine Bluff's road record of 0-3 with the same averages, and California Baptist's last five games included a win, whereas Arkansas-Pine Bluff's last five also included a win; the most recent result for California Baptist was a 62-81 loss to Chicago State at home on 11 November, and for Arkansas-Pine Bluff a 37-106 loss to UCLA away on 11 November; the teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available; Pythia projects a score of 85-61, a total of 146.1, with a 77% probability that California Baptist will cover the home line of -15.0, a 44% chance of the over on the 148.5 total, and a 1% chance of overtime, ending the preview with California Baptist's projected 85 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
California Baptist winWon
97.2%fair 1.03
Best odds1.07
Implied90.7%
Edge+6.5pp
Arkansas-Pine Bluff winLost
2.8%fair 36.15
Best odds10.50
Implied9.3%
Edge-6.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (California Baptist) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5Actual: Under 139.5
Over 139.5
67.8%
@ 1.40+1.5pp
Under 139.5
32.2%
@ 2.75-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 144.5 · main lineActual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
56.0%
@ 1.88+5.4pp
Under 144.5
44.0%
@ 2.40-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
43.6%
@ 2.40+0.1pp
Under 149.5
56.4%
@ 1.85-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.18
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
📊 3. Team Totals
California Baptist total 78Actual: California Baptist under 78
Over 78
76.7%
Under 78
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California Baptist total 82 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 82
Over 82
62.2%
@ 1.86+12.5pp
Under 82
37.8%
@ 1.85-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
California Baptist total 86Actual: California Baptist under 86
Over 86
45.5%
Under 86
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 63Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 63
Over 63
45.6%
Under 63
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 67 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 67
Over 67
29.9%
@ 1.88-19.3pp
Under 67
70.1%
@ 1.85+19.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 71Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 71
Over 71
17.4%
Under 71
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread California Baptist -18Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +18
CALI -18
67.4%
@ 2.39+27.3pp
ARKA +18
32.6%
@ 1.60-27.3pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.35
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.54
Spread California Baptist -15 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +15
CALI -15
76.5%
@ 1.90+25.9pp
ARKA +15
23.5%
@ 1.95-25.9pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Spread California Baptist -12Actual: California Baptist -12
CALI -12
83.8%
@ 1.54+23.4pp
ARKA +12
16.2%
@ 2.35-23.4pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.54
ARKA
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
California BaptistArkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (California Baptist) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: California Baptist win
CALI win
no forecast
@ 1.28
ARKA win
no forecast
@ 3.75
2nd half Spread California Baptist -7.5 · main lineActual: California Baptist -7.5
CALI -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
ARKA +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
California Baptist 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: California Baptist over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Spread California Baptist -6.5Actual: California Baptist -6.5
CALI -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
ARKA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: California Baptist (regulation)
CALI
no forecast
@ 1.31
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
ARKA
no forecast
@ 3.75
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
California Baptist -17
70.6%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.15
Marathon Bet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
-
+28.7pp
Lost
California Baptist -16
73.7%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
+27.7pp
Lost
California Baptist -16.5
71.5%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.91
+27.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -15.5
74.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.99
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.90
+26.3pp
Lost
California Baptist -15
76.5%
1.89
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
-
+25.9pp
Lost
California Baptist -14.5
77.1%
1.82
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
+24.0pp
Lost
California Baptist -14
79.1%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.71
-
+23.7pp
Push
California Baptist -12
83.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
California Baptist -11.5
84.2%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
California Baptist -13
81.6%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
California Baptist -13.5
79.7%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
+22.3pp
Won
California Baptist over 78.5
74.3%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
California Baptist -10.5
86.1%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
California Baptist -11
85.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
California Baptist over 79.5
71.0%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -12.5
82.0%
1.58
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
California Baptist -10
87.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
California Baptist -9.5
87.9%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 67
70.1%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
California Baptist -8.5
89.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
California Baptist -9
89.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 69.5
77.5%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
California Baptist -8
90.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 71.5
83.0%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
California Baptist -7.5
91.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
California Baptist -7
92.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
California Baptist over 75.5
83.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 67.5
71.1%
1.79
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.67
-
+14.8pp
Won
California Baptist -6.5
92.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 68.5
74.4%
1.54
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
California Baptist over 77.5
77.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 70.5
80.4%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
California Baptist -4.5
94.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
California Baptist over 73.5
87.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
California Baptist (regulation)
96.7%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
California Baptist over 71.5
91.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 72.5
85.4%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
California Baptist over 70.5
92.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
California Baptist over 69.5
94.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
California Baptist over 67.5
96.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
California Baptist over 65.5
97.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
California Baptist +4.5
98.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
California Baptist over 63.5
98.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
California Baptist over 74.5
85.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
California Baptist win
97.2%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Pinnacle
1.06
+6.5pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 74.5
89.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
California Baptist over 72.5
89.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 78.5
94.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 80.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 76.5
92.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 75.5
91.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.3%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 156.5
72.4%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 120.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 156
71.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Over 125.5
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 138
71.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Over 137.5
72.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Under 170.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 158.5
76.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 123.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
76.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
Under 163.5
84.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 155.5
70.3%
1.32
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Over 130.5
84.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
California Baptist under 97.5
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 49.5
89.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 165.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 51.5
85.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
California Baptist under 95.5
85.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Under 160.5
80.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 52.5
82.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 53.5
80.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
California Baptist under 93.5
80.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 54.5
77.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 55.5
74.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
California Baptist under 91.5
74.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 56.5
70.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
California Baptist under 90.5
71.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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