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California vs Radford Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 85-72
Projected total 156.7
Final 84-70
45-37 39-33
Position#119
Record1-0
FormLWLLW
Points / game115.0
Allowed / game86.0
California 🏆
USA
Vs
86%
14%
■ CALI 86%■ RADF 14%
Pythia win probability
Radford
USA
Position#309
Record0-1
FormLWLLL
Points / game62.0
Allowed / game76.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

California faces Radford on 4 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring California at 86% versus 14% for Radford, reflecting California's 1-0 season record, 115.0 points per game and 86.0 points allowed per game, the highest scoring output in the league and the lowest points allowed among teams with a single game. Radford, by contrast, sits at 0-1, averaging 62.0 points scored and 76.0 points allowed, the lowest offensive average and a higher defensive allowance than California. California's lone home game saw a 115-86 win, while Radford's sole road outing ended 62-76. In the last five games, California won 2 and lost 3, whereas Radford won 1 and lost 4. The projected score is 85-72, with a total of 156.7 points; the home team line is -16.5 with a 36% chance of covering, and the total line is 156.5 with a 50% chance of the over. The overtime probability is 3%. The final concrete fact: California's 115-point outing on 2 November 2026 remains the benchmark for this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

California winWon
86.3%fair 1.16
Best odds1.05
Implied90.5%
Edge-4.2pp
Radford winLost
13.7%fair 7.30
Best odds12.00
Implied9.5%
Edge+4.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CaliforniaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
55-77
55
77
-22
H08/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
100-107 OT
100
107
-7
A12/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
86-75
86
75
+11
A14/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
72-66
72
66
+6
H21/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H26/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
56-72
56
72
-16
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
76-65
76
65
+11
A05/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
73-80
73
80
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
89-95
89
95
-6
A11/03
NCAA
Adams State
#356
W
115-86
115
86
+29
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
20-39
35-38
35-35
43-43
43-28
43-47
39-25
33-41
38-33
35-36
26-34
30-38
32-36
44-29
37-29
36-51
32-46
57-49
66-37
49-49
158.7Avg total
79.5Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)115.086.0201.0+29.0100%
Season at home (1)115.086.0201.0+29.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.579.2158.7+0.350%
Last 5 (5)81.879.6161.4+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.082.5150.5-14.525%
vs Similar (13)75.574.5149.9+1.054%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)81.871.2153.0+10.783%
This opponent (Radford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RadfordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Presbyterian
#263
W
93-84 OT
93
84
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
78-80
78
80
-2
H05/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
77-86
77
86
-9
A08/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
W
90-80
90
80
+10
H14/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
82-70
82
70
+12
H20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
73-74 OT
73
74
-1
A21/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H27/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A28/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
L
85-91 OT
85
91
-6
H07/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#146
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-36
42-39
36-42
42-38
37-39
40-47
50-30
40-50
48-34
34-36
33-32
33-34
29-30
42-29
37-34
37-56
36-28
41-49
30-37
32-39
157.5Avg total
78.5Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)62.076.0138.0-14.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)62.076.0138.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)78.579.0157.5-0.540%
Last 5 (5)73.078.0151.0-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)77.786.7164.3-9.00%
vs Similar (12)79.678.2157.8+1.450%
vs Weaker (13)85.378.7164.0+6.662%
This opponent (California) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
61.2%
@ 1.43-3.8pp
Under 152
38.8%
@ 2.65+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 157 · main lineActual: Under 157
Over 157
48.7%
@ 1.89-1.3pp
Under 157
51.3%
@ 1.97+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.97
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 162Actual: Under 162
Over 162
36.5%
@ 2.50-1.0pp
Under 162
63.5%
@ 1.50+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

California total 82Actual: California over 82
Over 82
60.7%
Under 82
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California total 86 · main lineActual: California under 86
Over 86
44.1%
@ 1.85-5.9pp
Under 86
55.9%
@ 1.85+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
California total 90Actual: California under 90
Over 90
28.5%
Under 90
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radford total 66Actual: Radford over 66
Over 66
73.0%
Under 66
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radford total 70 · main linePush
Over 70
57.9%
@ 1.85+7.9pp
Under 70
42.1%
@ 1.85-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Radford total 74Actual: Radford under 74
Over 74
41.6%
Under 74
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread California -19Actual: Radford +19
CALI -19
27.3%
@ 2.50-10.2pp
RADF +19
72.7%
@ 1.50+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
2.50
RADF
Bet365
1.50
Spread California -16 · main lineActual: Radford +16
CALI -16
37.1%
@ 1.95-14.1pp
RADF +16
62.9%
@ 1.95+14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
RADF
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Spread California -13Actual: California -13
CALI -13
47.9%
@ 1.58-10.5pp
RADF +13
52.1%
@ 2.22+10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.58
RADF
Bet365
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: -1.6-1.62nd half: -3.4-3.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.6+2.61st half: +2.7+2.72nd half2nd half: -1.6-1.62nd half: -3.4-3.4
CaliforniaRadford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
CaliforniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
20-39
20
39
-19
H08/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A12/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
43-28
43
28
+15
A14/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H21/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H26/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A05/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A07/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A11/03
NCAA
Adams State
#356
W
66-37
66
37
+29
H03/11
NCAA
71.0Avg total
36.8Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)36.734.871.5+1.950%33%
Last 30 at home (19)37.532.770.2+4.858%32%
Last 30 away (11)35.438.573.8-3.136%36%
Last 10 (10)36.834.271.0+2.650%20%
Last 5 (5)38.636.475.0+2.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)35.543.078.5-7.525%75%
vs Similar (13)34.833.568.3+1.454%23%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)36.733.370.0+3.350%25%
This opponent (Radford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RadfordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Presbyterian
#263
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A31/01
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H05/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A08/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H14/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H20/02
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
33-32
33
32
+1
A21/02
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H27/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H07/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#146
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A03/11
NCAA
71.1Avg total
36.9Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75
Last 30 (30)38.934.873.7+4.160%53%
Last 30 at home (16)40.834.575.3+6.362%62%
Last 30 away (14)36.735.271.9+1.557%43%
Last 10 (10)36.934.271.1+2.750%40%
Last 5 (5)33.032.265.2+0.860%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)37.337.374.7+0.033%67%
vs Similar (12)38.234.272.5+4.058%50%
vs Weaker (13)40.336.076.3+4.369%62%
This opponent (California) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread California -8.5 · main lineActual: Radford +8.5
CALI -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
RADF +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75 · main lineActual: Over 75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
California 1st half total 42 · main lineActual: California over 42
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Radford 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Radford over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread California -11.5Actual: Radford +11.5
CALI -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
RADF +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread California -5.5Actual: California -5.5
CALI -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
RADF +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.29
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.29
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.14
Under
no forecast
@ 5.00
1st half Over/Under 84.5Actual: Under 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 5.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.14
1st half Spread California -14.5Actual: Radford +14.5
CALI -14.5
no forecast
@ 3.50
RADF +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.25
1st half Spread California -2.5Actual: California -2.5
CALI -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.29
RADF +2.5
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Spread California -17.5Actual: Radford +17.5
CALI -17.5
no forecast
@ 5.50
RADF +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.12
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: California (regulation)
CALI
no forecast
@ 1.15
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
RADF
no forecast
@ 5.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CALI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: RADF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Radford +18.570.5%1.57
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.55		---+10.7ppWon
Radford +1972.7%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+10.2ppWon
Radford +19.573.5%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+10.1ppWon
Radford +20.576.3%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+10.0ppWon
Radford +2075.6%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+9.9ppWon
Radford +21.578.8%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+9.4ppWon
Radford +2178.3%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+9.3ppWon
Radford +22.581.2%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+8.9ppWon
Radford +2280.8%1.29
Bet365
1.29		----+8.9ppWon
California under 91.575.7%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+8.7ppWon
Radford +2383.1%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+8.3ppWon
Radford +23.583.4%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+8.1ppWon
California under 96.588.5%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+8.0ppWon
California under 93.581.6%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+7.5ppWon
California under 92.578.8%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+7.2ppWon
California under 97.590.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+6.5ppWon
California under 95.586.4%1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14		---+6.3ppWon
California under 99.593.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+6.1ppWon
California under 101.595.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.1ppWon
Radford over 53.596.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.9ppWon
Radford over 63.580.0%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+3.8ppWon
Radford over 55.594.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.8ppWon
Radford over 54.595.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.6ppWon
Radford over 57.592.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+3.1ppWon
Radford over 56.593.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.0ppWon
Radford over 59.589.2%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+2.6ppWon
Radford over 64.577.1%1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23		---+2.6ppWon
Radford over 61.585.1%1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12		---+2.4ppWon
Radford over 58.591.0%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+2.3ppWon
Radford over 62.582.6%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+2.1ppWon
Radford over 60.587.3%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+1.2ppWon
California over 71.590.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.1ppWon
Radford over 66.570.6%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+1.1ppWon
Under 177.589.8%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.1ppWon
Under 167.574.9%1.26
Bet365
1.26		----+0.8ppWon
Under 16570.3%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+0.8ppWon
Under 165.570.9%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+0.4ppWon
Under 172.583.5%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+0.4ppWon
Over 132.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.3ppWon
California +4.592.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.1ppWon
California over 73.586.7%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----0.4ppWon
California over 75.581.9%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----1.1ppWon
California (regulation)84.5%1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05		-----1.6ppWon
Over 137.588.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.7ppWon
Radford under 79.576.9%1.17
1xBet
1.17		-----2.4ppWon
Radford under 78.573.9%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----3.8ppWon
California over 76.579.2%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----3.9ppWon
California win86.3%1.04
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
WilliamHill
1.03		--4.2ppWon
Over 142.580.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.9ppWon
Over 147.571.0%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----5.1ppWon
California over 77.576.2%1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.11		----5.4ppWon
California -4.576.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----7.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
California wins
0
Radford wins
No previous meetings.
Californialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HAdams State115-86
11/03/26AFlorida State89-95
07/03/26AWake Forest73-80
05/03/26AGeorgia Tech76-65
28/02/26HPittsburgh56-72
26/02/26HSMU Mustangs73-69
21/02/26HStanford72-66
14/02/26ABoston College86-75
12/02/26ASyracuse100-107 OT
08/02/26HClemson55-77
Radfordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26ASan Francisco62-76
07/03/26HPresbyterian85-91 OT
28/02/26ALongwood74-90
27/02/26HUSC Upstate71-59
21/02/26AUNC Asheville73-74 OT
20/02/26HGardner Webb82-70
14/02/26HCharleston Southern90-80
08/02/26AHigh Point77-86
05/02/26HWinthrop78-80
31/01/26APresbyterian93-84 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

California
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game115.0115.0-
Allowed / game86.086.0-
Point differential+29.0+29.0-
Avg total201.0201.0-
Over 157100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Radford
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game62.0-62.0
Allowed / game76.0-76.0
Point differential-14.0--14.0
Avg total138.0-138.0
Over 1570%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Pittsburgh110100%95.057.0+38.0
2 Duke110100%84.050.0+34.0
3 Virginia Tech110100%88.054.0+34.0
4 California110100%115.086.0+29.0
5 Virginia110100%89.060.0+29.0
6 Boston College110100%76.050.0+26.0
7 Wake Forest110100%83.062.0+21.0
8 Georgia Tech110100%75.055.0+20.0
9 NC State110100%83.064.0+19.0
10 Syracuse110100%74.058.0+16.0
11 Louisville110100%84.070.0+14.0
12 Clemson110100%85.072.0+13.0
13 SMU Mustangs110100%85.072.0+13.0
14 Stanford110100%74.065.0+9.0
15 North Carolina110100%80.072.0+8.0
16 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
17 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
18 Florida State1010%69.0112.0-43.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big South conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 High Point220100%67.553.0+14.5
2 Longwood21150%98.074.5+23.5
3 UNC Asheville21150%89.087.0+2.0
4 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
5 Presbyterian1010%78.087.0-9.0
6 USC Upstate1010%70.083.0-13.0
7 Radford1010%62.076.0-14.0
8 Charleston Southern1010%71.098.0-27.0
9 Gardner Webb1010%46.086.0-40.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
California453984
Radford373370
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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