Caxias do Sul vs Brasilia Result & Analysis

Caxias do Sul will host Brasilia on 7 November 2026 in the NBB, with the model favouring Brasilia and predicting a 73% chance of a win for the visitors and a 27% chance for the hosts, a projected score of 71-78 and a total of 149.6 points. Caxias do Sul comes into the game on a 0-5 season record, averaging 64.2 points and conceding 80.4, and has gone 0-2 at home, scoring 63.5 and allowing 75.0; their last five games have all been losses, including a 53-91 defeat to Pinheiros on 2 November and a 59-77 loss to Flamengo on 30 October. Brasilia, meanwhile, sits 3-3 on the season, with 84.7 points scored and 85.5 allowed, and is 1-1 on the road, averaging 75.0 points and 90.0 conceded; their last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to Flamengo, Botafogo and Minas. In the 10 meetings between the clubs, Brasilia has won seven to Caxias do Sul's three, most recently beating them 71-70 on 30 April 2026. The home team faces a 7-point line and a 50% chance of covering it, while the over on the 150-point total has a 48% probability, and there is a 4% chance the game will go into overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Caxias do Sul winLost

27.4%fair 3.65

Best odds3.75

Implied25.2%

Edge+2.2pp

Brasilia winWon

72.6%fair 1.38

Best odds1.29

Implied74.8%

Edge-2.2pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Caxias do Sul Brazil

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormSul

Date

Competition

Corinthians Paulista

79-92

-13

76avg 66

H17/04

NBB

Brasilia

64-73

-9

57avg 66

A22/04

NBB

Brasilia

70-78

-8

59avg 66

H25/04

NBB

Brasilia

66-63

52avg 66

H27/04

NBB

Brasilia

70-71

-1

62avg 66

A30/04

NBB

Cruzeiro

61-72

-11

45avg 66

H17/10

NBB

Minas

66-78

-12

52avg 66

H20/10

NBB

Botafogo

#10

82-84

-2

76avg 66

A28/10

NBB

Flamengo

59-77

-18

no box

A30/10

NBB

Pinheiros

53-91

-38

no box

A02/11

NBB

14-18

23-26

24-30

18-18

15-23

20-11

15-19

14-20

23-20

14-26

20-17

13-15

20-20

8-11

20-17

18-15

24-15

9-22

18-19

19-15

20-21

19-12

9-19

13-20

20-25

13-18

10-18

23-17

24-22

16-14

21-25

21-23

15-17

12-18

9-28

23-14

6-25

15-20

14-23

18-23

144.9Avg total

67.0Scored

77.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	64.2	80.4	144.6	-16.2	0%
Season at home (2)	63.5	75.0	138.5	-11.5	0%
Season away (3)	64.7	84.0	148.7	-19.3	0%
Last 10 (10)	67.0	77.9	144.9	-10.9	10%
Last 5 (5)	64.2	80.4	144.6	-16.2	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	67.2	78.4	145.6	-11.2	16%
vs Similar (5)	76.6	75.6	152.2	+1.0	40%
vs Weaker (6)	82.0	75.0	157.0	+7.0	67%

This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Brasilia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBrasilia

Date

Competition

Franca

67-50

+17

61avg 71

H21/05

NBB

Franca

74-91

-17

70avg 71

H23/05

NBB

Franca

71-69

60avg 71

A26/05

NBB

Franca

66-68

-2

53avg 71

A28/05

NBB

Corinthians Paulista

#14

104-92

104

+12

109avg 71

H22/10

NBB

Paulistano

91-73

+18

85avg 71

H24/10

NBB

Cruzeiro

89-80

23avg 71

A27/10

NBB

Minas

61-100

100

-39

20avg 71

A29/10

NBB

Botafogo

#10

76-77

-1

no box

H02/11

NBB

Flamengo

87-91

-4

no box

H04/11

NBB

24-7

9-19

17-12

12-28

27-20

18-16

17-27

17-10

15-20

17-14

22-25

15-21

11-21

21-16

19-10

29-28

17-17

31-27

27-20

29-22

25-16

18-16

19-19

16-21

16-28

30-11

27-20

12-26

21-17

19-24

9-33

22-16

14-20

17-23

23-18

25-33

21-26

27-14

14-18

157.7Avg total

78.6Scored

79.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	84.7	85.5	170.2	-0.8	50%
Season at home (4)	89.5	83.2	172.8	+6.2	50%
Season away (2)	75.0	90.0	165.0	-15.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	78.6	79.1	157.7	-0.5	50%
Last 5 (5)	80.8	84.2	165.0	-3.4	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	71.4	78.5	149.9	-7.1	25%
vs Similar (9)	84.8	82.2	167.0	+2.6	78%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	77.8	68.2	146.0	+9.5	77%

This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 144.5Actual: Under 144.5

Over 144.5

61.7%

@ 1.47-1.5pp

Under 144.5

38.3%

@ 2.60+1.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.47

Bet365

1.45

Under

Bet365

2.60

Betano

2.42

Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Under 149.5

Over 149.5

49.7%

@ 1.85-0.7pp

Under 149.5

50.3%

@ 1.95+0.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.85

SBO

1.82

Betano

1.80

WilliamHill

1.80

Marathon Be

1.80

Under

Bet365

1.95

WilliamHill

1.91

Pinnacle

1.88

BetVictor

1.88

Betano

1.87

Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5

Over 154.5

37.8%

@ 2.32-2.1pp

Under 154.5

62.2%

@ 1.55+2.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.32

Bet365

2.30

Under

Bet365

1.55

Betano

1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Caxias do Sul total 66.5Actual: Caxias do Sul under 66.5

Over 66.5

68.0%

@ 1.42+3.3pp

Under 66.5

32.0%

@ 2.75-3.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.38

Under

Bet365

2.75

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.41

Caxias do Sul total 70.5 · main lineActual: Caxias do Sul under 70.5

Over 70.5

53.0%

@ 1.83+3.0pp

Under 70.5

47.0%

@ 1.85-3.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

1xBet

1.73

Under

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.72

Caxias do Sul total 74.5Actual: Caxias do Sul under 74.5

Over 74.5

37.7%

@ 2.57+1.6pp

Under 74.5

62.3%

@ 1.50-1.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.57

Bet365

2.50

1xBet

2.42

Under

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.37

Brasilia total 75.5Actual: Brasilia over 75.5

Over 75.5

60.6%

@ 1.44-3.0pp

Under 75.5

39.4%

@ 2.55+3.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.44

1xBet

1.38

Under

Betano

2.55

1xBet

2.38

Brasilia total 79.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia under 79.5

Over 79.5

44.9%

@ 1.85-4.8pp

Under 79.5

55.1%

@ 1.83+4.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.73

Under

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

BetVictor

1.83

Betano

1.82

1xBet

1.71

Brasilia total 83.5Actual: Brasilia under 83.5

Over 83.5

30.0%

@ 2.62-5.6pp

Under 83.5

70.0%

@ 1.42+5.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.62

1xBet

2.43

Under

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.37

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Caxias do Sul +5.5Actual: Brasilia -5.5

CAXI +5.5

44.6%

@ 2.34+3.2pp

BRAS -5.5

55.4%

@ 1.58-3.2pp

Best 5 market prices

CAXI

1xBet

2.34

Betano

2.30

Bet365

2.30

Pinnacle

2.24

BRAS

Pinnacle

1.58

Marathon Be

1.58

Bet365

1.55

Betano

1.52

1xBet

1.43

Spread Caxias do Sul +8.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia -8.5

CAXI +8.5

55.8%

@ 1.97+6.1pp

BRAS -8.5

44.2%

@ 1.86-6.1pp

Best 5 market prices

CAXI

SBO

1.97

Betfair

1.91

Pinnacle

1.88

Marathon Be

1.88

BetVictor

1.88

BRAS

Pinnacle

1.86

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.82

Betfair

1.80

BetVictor

1.80

Spread Caxias do Sul +11.5Actual: Brasilia -11.5

CAXI +11.5

66.3%

@ 1.59+8.0pp

BRAS -11.5

33.7%

@ 2.25-8.0pp

Best 5 market prices

CAXI

Pinnacle

1.59

Betano

1.57

Bet365

1.57

1xBet

1.50

BRAS

Bet365

2.25

Betano

2.22

Pinnacle

2.22

1xBet

2.16

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Caxias do SulBrasilia

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 37.25
Last 30 (30)	18.1	19.9	38.0	-1.8	40%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	17.6	20.5	38.1	-2.9	31%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	18.8	19.2	38.0	-0.4	50%	64%
Last 10 (10)	18.1	20.6	38.7	-2.5	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	17.0	22.0	39.0	-5.0	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	18.3	19.8	38.2	-1.5	42%	58%
vs Similar (5)	17.2	22.2	39.4	-5.0	20%	80%
vs Weaker (6)	18.3	18.2	36.5	+0.2	50%	33%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 37.25
Last 30 (30)	20.2	19.2	39.4	+1.0	50%	63%
Last 30 at home (18)	21.9	19.4	41.3	+2.4	61%	78%
Last 30 away (12)	17.6	18.8	36.4	-1.2	33%	42%
Last 10 (10)	20.1	21.2	41.3	-1.1	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	20.8	23.6	44.4	-2.8	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.2	19.9	38.1	-1.6	38%	50%
vs Similar (9)	20.9	20.0	40.9	+0.9	44%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	20.8	18.2	39.1	+2.6	62%	69%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 36.75
Last 30 (30)	16.2	18.3	34.6	-2.1	30%	27%
Last 30 at home (16)	16.4	18.0	34.4	-1.6	31%	31%
Last 30 away (14)	16.1	18.7	34.8	-2.6	29%	21%
Last 10 (10)	14.9	17.8	32.7	-2.9	30%	20%
Last 5 (5)	15.0	16.4	31.4	-1.4	40%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	14.7	18.5	33.2	-3.8	26%	21%
vs Similar (5)	16.8	16.6	33.4	+0.2	40%	20%
vs Weaker (6)	20.7	19.3	40.0	+1.3	33%	50%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 36.75
Last 30 (30)	17.7	18.7	36.5	-1.0	40%	47%
Last 30 at home (18)	18.4	19.2	37.7	-0.8	39%	50%
Last 30 away (12)	16.7	18.0	34.7	-1.3	42%	42%
Last 10 (10)	17.6	20.4	38.0	-2.8	30%	50%
Last 5 (5)	19.4	21.4	40.8	-2.0	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	16.5	20.0	36.5	-3.5	25%	38%
vs Similar (9)	19.9	21.6	41.4	-1.7	33%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	17.0	16.0	33.0	+1.0	54%	38%

Caxias do SulLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Corinthians Paulista

37-44

-7

H17/04

NBB

Brasilia

35-34

A22/04

NBB

Brasilia

37-46

-9

H25/04

NBB

Brasilia

28-31

-3

H27/04

NBB

Brasilia

33-37

-4

A30/04

NBB

Cruzeiro

39-33

H17/10

NBB

Minas

33-43

-10

H20/10

NBB

Botafogo

#10

40-36

A28/10

NBB

Flamengo

27-35

-8

A30/10

NBB

Pinheiros

21-45

-24

A02/11

NBB

71.4Avg total

33.0Scored

38.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 75.5
Last 30 (30)	34.4	38.2	72.6	-3.9	40%	37%
Last 30 at home (16)	33.9	38.5	72.4	-4.6	31%	38%
Last 30 away (14)	34.9	37.9	72.8	-3.1	50%	36%
Last 10 (10)	33.0	38.4	71.4	-5.4	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	32.0	38.4	70.4	-6.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	33.0	38.3	71.3	-5.3	42%	37%
vs Similar (5)	34.0	38.8	72.8	-4.8	20%	20%
vs Weaker (6)	39.0	37.5	76.5	+1.5	50%	50%

This opponent (Brasilia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Franca

33-26

H21/05

NBB

Franca

39-48

-9

H23/05

NBB

Franca

32-30

A26/05

NBB

Franca

26-42

-16

A28/05

NBB

Corinthians Paulista

#14

46-45

H22/10

NBB

Paulistano

54-38

+16

H24/10

NBB

Cruzeiro

32-49

-17

A27/10

NBB

Minas

33-43

-10

A29/10

NBB

Botafogo

#10

36-36

H02/11

NBB

Flamengo

46-59

-13

H04/11

NBB

79.3Avg total

37.7Scored

41.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 75.5
Last 30 (30)	37.9	37.9	75.8	-0.0	50%	50%
Last 30 at home (18)	40.3	38.7	79.0	+1.7	56%	56%
Last 30 away (12)	34.2	36.8	71.1	-2.6	42%	42%
Last 10 (10)	37.7	41.6	79.3	-3.9	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	40.2	45.0	85.2	-4.8	20%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	34.8	39.9	74.6	-5.1	38%	38%
vs Similar (9)	40.8	41.6	82.3	-0.8	44%	78%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	37.8	34.2	72.1	+3.6	62%	38%

This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Brasilia win

CAXI win

no forecast

@ 3.26

BRAS win

no forecast

@ 1.40

1st half Spread Caxias do Sul +4.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia -4.5

CAXI +4.5

no forecast

@ 1.95

BRAS -4.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.91

Caxias do Sul 1st half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Caxias do Sul under 35.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

Brasilia 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Brasilia over 40.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.95

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half: CAXI + total 76.5

CAXI & over

no forecast

@ 5.50

CAXI & under

no forecast

@ 5.25

1st half: Draw + total 76.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 31.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: BRAS + total 76.5

BRAS & over

no forecast

@ 2.85

BRAS & under

no forecast

@ 2.80

1st half Over/Under 74.25Actual: Under 74.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.72

Under

no forecast

@ 1.92

1st half Over/Under 76.75Actual: Under 76.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.91

Under

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Spread Caxias do Sul +3.5Actual: Brasilia -3.5

CAXI +3.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

BRAS -3.5

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half Spread Caxias do Sul +5.5Actual: Brasilia -5.5

CAXI +5.5

no forecast

@ 1.78

BRAS -5.5

no forecast

@ 2.01

1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.62

Under

no forecast

@ 2.60

1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.20

Under

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Spread Caxias do Sul +2.5Actual: Brasilia -2.5

CAXI +2.5

no forecast

@ 2.30

BRAS -2.5

no forecast

@ 1.67

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Brasilia (regulation)

CAXI

no forecast

@ 3.20

Draw

no forecast

@ 17.50

BRAS

no forecast

@ 1.45

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 35.75
Last 30 (30)	17.4	20.5	37.8	-3.1	27%	63%
Last 30 at home (16)	18.2	19.1	37.4	-0.9	44%	56%
Last 30 away (14)	16.4	22.0	38.4	-5.6	7%	71%
Last 10 (10)	16.0	21.5	37.5	-5.5	20%	70%
Last 5 (5)	12.6	22.6	35.2	-10.0	0%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	15.9	22.1	38.0	-6.1	16%	63%
vs Similar (5)	19.4	17.6	37.0	+1.8	40%	60%
vs Weaker (6)	20.2	17.8	38.0	+2.3	50%	67%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 35.75
Last 30 (30)	20.5	18.8	39.3	+1.8	60%	67%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.6	18.4	39.0	+2.2	72%	56%
Last 30 away (12)	20.4	19.3	39.8	+1.1	42%	83%
Last 10 (10)	21.5	17.3	38.8	+4.2	80%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	17.6	39.8	+4.6	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	18.9	18.1	37.0	+0.8	62%	62%
vs Similar (9)	21.4	20.8	42.2	+0.7	56%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	20.9	17.8	38.7	+3.2	62%	69%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 37.25
Last 30 (30)	19.3	18.0	37.3	+1.3	50%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	18.6	17.3	35.9	+1.2	50%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	20.1	18.9	39.0	+1.3	50%	50%
Last 10 (10)	18.0	18.0	36.0	+0.0	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	19.6	19.4	39.0	+0.2	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	18.3	18.0	36.3	+0.3	47%	42%
vs Similar (5)	23.2	19.2	42.4	+4.0	60%	80%
vs Weaker (6)	19.3	17.2	36.5	+2.2	50%	33%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 37.25
Last 30 (30)	19.2	17.9	37.1	+1.3	60%	50%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.3	18.7	39.1	+1.6	56%	61%
Last 30 away (12)	17.5	16.6	34.1	+0.9	67%	33%
Last 10 (10)	19.4	20.2	39.6	-0.8	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	18.4	21.6	40.0	-3.2	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	17.0	19.1	36.1	-2.1	50%	38%
vs Similar (9)	21.4	19.1	40.6	+2.3	67%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	19.0	16.2	35.2	+2.8	62%	46%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 73
Last 30 (30)	36.7	38.5	75.2	-1.8	47%	50%
Last 30 at home (16)	36.8	36.4	73.2	+0.4	56%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	36.5	40.9	77.4	-4.4	36%	57%
Last 10 (10)	34.0	39.5	73.5	-5.5	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	32.2	42.0	74.2	-9.8	0%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	34.2	40.1	74.3	-5.8	26%	42%
vs Similar (5)	42.6	36.8	79.4	+5.8	100%	80%
vs Weaker (6)	39.5	35.0	74.5	+4.5	67%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 73
Last 30 (30)	39.7	36.6	76.4	+3.1	50%	50%
Last 30 at home (18)	40.9	37.1	78.1	+3.8	56%	61%
Last 30 away (12)	37.9	35.9	73.8	+2.0	42%	33%
Last 10 (10)	40.9	37.5	78.4	+3.4	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	40.6	39.2	79.8	+1.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)	35.9	37.2	73.1	-1.4	38%	50%
vs Similar (9)	42.9	39.9	82.8	+3.0	44%	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	39.9	34.0	73.9	+5.9	62%	38%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

CAXI win + total 149.5

🔒 Pro

BRAS win + total 149.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: CAXI leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BRAS leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (CAXI:BRAS): CAXI wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Caxias do Sul +16.5	80.5%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	+8.4pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +14	74.6%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+8.4pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +13	71.6%	1.47	Bet365 1.47	-	-	-	-	+8.2pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +16	80.0%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +14.5	75.3%	1.34	Bet365 1.38	Betano 1.36	1xBet 1.28	-	-	+8.0pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +15.5	78.0%	1.32	Bet365 1.33	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +15	77.4%	1.34	Bet365 1.34	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Lost
Caxias do Sul +13.5	72.5%	1.40	Bet365 1.44	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.34	-	-	+7.8pp	Lost
Brasilia under 89.5	86.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
Caxias do Sul +18.5	84.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Lost
Brasilia under 88.5	84.7%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Brasilia under 86.5	79.5%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
Brasilia under 90.5	88.9%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Brasilia under 84.5	73.4%	1.35	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.32	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Caxias do Sul +23.5	92.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Brasilia under 92.5	92.2%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Brasilia under 85.5	76.6%	1.24	1xBet 1.24	-	-	-	-	+5.9pp	Won
Brasilia under 83.5	70.0%	1.40	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.37	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Brasilia +16.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Brasilia +11.5	93.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Overtime: no	95.5%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	-
Brasilia over 62.5	93.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 90.5	96.3%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 88.5	94.7%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Under 175.5	93.8%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Under 158	70.3%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 91.5	97.0%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 86.5	92.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Won
Under 165.5	83.3%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Brasilia over 64.5	91.2%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
Under 170.5	89.6%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Under 160.5	74.9%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+2.1pp	Won
Under 158.5	71.0%	1.35	Bet365 1.35	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 84.5	89.5%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 80.5	81.1%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
Brasilia over 66.5	87.6%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+1.5pp	Won
Brasilia +6.5	86.9%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 82.5	85.7%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 81.5	83.5%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Brasilia over 69.5	80.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Brasilia over 68.5	83.1%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+0.9pp	Won
Caxias do Sul under 78.5	75.6%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+0.9pp	Won
Over 130.5	87.7%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Brasilia over 70.5	77.7%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-0.0pp	Won
Brasilia +1.5	74.8%	1.23	Betano 1.24	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
Brasilia over 72.5	71.4%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	-0.9pp	Won
Brasilia (regulation)	70.1%	1.25	Betano 1.26	1xBet 1.25	Marathon Bet 1.25	-	-	-1.1pp	Won
Over 135.5	80.3%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-1.2pp	Lost
Brasilia -1.5	70.1%	1.29	Bet365 1.30	Betano 1.27	-	-	-	-1.7pp	Won
Brasilia -1	71.9%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
Over 140.5	70.6%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	-2.2pp	Lost
Brasilia win	72.6%	1.24	WilliamHill 1.29	1xBet 1.25	Betfair 1.25	Bet365 1.25	Betano 1.24	-2.2pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Caxias do Sultheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caxias do Sul: 70.3 points a game scored

🏀🏀40%

🏀🏀🏀44%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers28.0 pts a game · 40% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 44% of the points

🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 71.0 points a game

51%

34%

15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	29.8	14.0	47.0%	49.9%	28.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.4	10.4	34.2%	31.7%	31.2
🏀 Free throws	15.4	11.1	72.1%	71.2%	11.1

They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 67.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers31.4 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 71.0 points a game

51%

34%

15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	31.2	15.7	50.3%	49.9%	31.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.9	33.0%	31.7%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	13.3	9.8	73.7%	71.2%	9.8

They take 58.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.5	18.8	54.5%	49.9%	37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.2	8.1	33.5%	31.7%	24.3
🏀 Free throws	15.3	11.6	75.8%	71.2%	11.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.0	16.3	50.9%	49.9%	32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.3	8.9	31.4%	31.7%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	16.6	12.1	72.9%	71.2%	12.1

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	31.9	15.8	49.4%	49.9%	31.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.0	9.6	34.3%	31.7%	28.8
🏀 Free throws	17.9	12.9	72.2%	71.2%	12.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.5	17.7	52.8%	49.9%	35.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.8	9.5	32.9%	31.7%	28.4
🏀 Free throws	16.7	11.8	70.8%	71.2%	11.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.9	19.5	54.3%	49.9%	39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	8.0	32.2%	31.7%	24.1
🏀 Free throws	17.4	12.6	72.4%	71.2%	12.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.5	16.9	51.8%	49.9%	33.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.4	9.5	30.3%	31.7%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	16.3	11.6	71.5%	71.2%	11.6

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Caxias do Sul

LLLLLLWLLL

Brasilia

LLLWWWLWLW

#18

League position

-4.0

Net rating

-4.5

88.6

Offensive rating

87.1

92.7

Defensive rating

91.6

49.2%

Effective FG%

49.9%

52.7%

Opp. effective FG%

49.2%

15.1%

Turnover %

15.8%

0.26

Free-throw rate

0.23

34.2%

3-point %

33.0%

63.9%

Assist %

63.4%

10%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Caxias do Sul ■ Brasilia

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Caxias do Sul wins

Brasilia wins

Date	Game	Score
30/04/26	Brasilia v Caxias do Sul	71-70
27/04/26	Caxias do Sul v Brasilia	66-63
25/04/26	Caxias do Sul v Brasilia	70-78
22/04/26	Brasilia v Caxias do Sul	73-64
12/01/26	Brasilia v Caxias do Sul	77-65
05/11/25	Caxias do Sul v Brasilia	64-96
12/02/25	Brasilia v Caxias do Sul	83-77
14/11/24	Caxias do Sul v Brasilia	71-76
09/02/24	Caxias do Sul v Brasilia	79-67
11/11/23	Brasilia v Caxias do Sul	69-77

Caxias do Sullast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
02/11/26	A	Pinheiros	53-91
30/10/26	A	Flamengo	59-77
28/10/26	A	Botafogo	82-84
20/10/26	H	Minas	66-78
17/10/26	H	Cruzeiro	61-72
30/04/26	A	Brasilia	70-71
27/04/26	H	Brasilia	66-63
25/04/26	H	Brasilia	70-78
22/04/26	A	Brasilia	64-73
17/04/26	H	Corinthians Paulista	79-92

Brasilialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Flamengo	87-91
02/11/26	H	Botafogo	76-77
29/10/26	A	Minas	61-100
27/10/26	A	Cruzeiro	89-80
24/10/26	H	Paulistano	91-73
22/10/26	H	Corinthians Paulista	104-92
28/05/26	A	Franca	66-68
26/05/26	A	Franca	71-69
23/05/26	H	Franca	74-91
21/05/26	H	Franca	67-50

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Caxias do Sul

NBB 2026-27

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	0%
Home	LL	0%
Away	LLL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	2	3
Win %	0%	0%	0%
Points / game	64.2	63.5	64.7
Allowed / game	80.4	75.0	84.0
Point differential	-16.2	-11.5	-19.3
Avg total	144.6	138.5	148.7
Over 149.5	20%	0%	33%
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	-	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Brasilia

NBB 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLLL	50%
Home	WWLL	50%
Away	WL	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	4	2
Win %	50%	50%	50%
Points / game	84.7	89.5	75.0
Allowed / game	85.5	83.2	90.0
Point differential	-0.8	+6.2	-15.0
Avg total	170.2	172.8	165.0
Over 149.5	100%	100%	100%
Win by 10+	33%	50%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (2)	0% (2)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Minas	6	6	0	100%	86.0	67.2	+18.8
2	Pinheiros	6	5	1	83%	86.8	70.2	+16.7
3	Unifacisa	6	5	1	83%	83.2	73.0	+10.2
4	Flamengo	5	4	1	80%	82.6	72.8	+9.8
5	Mogi	5	4	1	80%	80.8	74.4	+6.4
6	Franca	6	3	3	50%	77.3	73.3	+4.0
7	Brasilia	6	3	3	50%	84.7	85.5	-0.8
8	Cruzeiro	6	3	3	50%	76.2	78.8	-2.7
9	Paulistano	6	3	3	50%	70.3	73.0	-2.7
10	Botafogo	5	2	3	40%	80.0	83.0	-3.0
11	Uniao Corinthians	5	2	3	40%	73.8	80.0	-6.2
12	Sao Jose	6	2	4	33%	80.5	84.5	-4.0
13	Bauru	6	2	4	33%	73.2	77.7	-4.5
14	Corinthians Paulista	4	1	3	25%	80.5	80.0	+0.5
15	Osasco	4	1	3	25%	79.5	86.0	-6.5
16	Pato	4	1	3	25%	74.0	82.5	-8.5
17	Cearense	5	1	4	20%	65.6	86.8	-21.2
18	Caxias do Sul	5	0	5	0%	64.2	80.4	-16.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Caxias do Sul	12	11	19	13	55
Brasilia	22	26	23	5	76

← all games of the day

Caxias do Sul vs Brasilia Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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