PythiaBasketballBETA
Super League· Palace of Pioneers and Schoolchildren N.K. Krupskaya
Chelyabinsk faces Desna Bryansk in the Super League on 13 November 2026, with the model designating Chelyabinsk as the clear favourite at 95% probability of winning, a reflection of their 7-1 record and 92.1 points per game versus Desna Bryansk's 1-7 record and 68.9 points per game; Chelyabinsk's defence has allowed only 86.8 points per game, while Desna Bryansk's opponents have scored 78.0 against them. Chelyabinsk has been unbeaten at home, winning all three of its home games with an average of 97.0 points scored and 85.3 points allowed, and has won four of its last five games, including a 93-68 victory over Rusichi Kursk at home on 10 November 2026 and a 94-79 win over University-Ugra away on 5 November 2026, though they suffered a 82-117 loss to Khimki M. away on 2 November 2026. Desna Bryansk has lost all three of its road games, averaging 65.3 points scored and 83.3 points allowed, and has lost every one of its last five games, including defeats to Metallurg, Dynamo Grozny and CSKA Moscow in the past month. The Pythia model projects a 91-72 scoreline with a total of 163.4 points, giving Chelyabinsk a 58% chance to cover the home line of -16.5 and a 37% probability that the over on the 168.5 total will be hit, while the overtime probability sits at 1%.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 92.1 | 86.8 | 178.9 | +5.4 | 88% |
| Season at home (3) | 97.0 | 85.3 | 182.3 | +11.7 | 100% |
| Season away (5) | 89.2 | 87.6 | 176.8 | +1.6 | 80% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.7 | 82.9 | 170.6 | +4.8 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 93.4 | 90.4 | 183.8 | +3.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 91.0 | 92.0 | 183.0 | -1.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (8) | 80.1 | 84.4 | 164.5 | -4.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 90.9 | 78.8 | 169.7 | +12.0 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 68.9 | 78.0 | 146.9 | -9.1 | 12% |
| Season at home (5) | 71.0 | 74.8 | 145.8 | -3.8 | 20% |
| Season away (3) | 65.3 | 83.3 | 148.7 | -18.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.2 | 81.7 | 150.9 | -12.5 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.6 | 82.2 | 146.8 | -17.6 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 65.3 | 84.9 | 150.2 | -19.6 | 0% |
| vs Similar (2) | 73.5 | 71.5 | 145.0 | +2.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 82.0 | 60.5 | 142.5 | +21.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.2 | 39.8 | 84.1 | +4.4 | 63% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.9 | 39.9 | 83.7 | +4.0 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 44.6 | 39.8 | 84.4 | +4.8 | 67% | 47% |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.2 | 39.8 | 83.0 | +3.4 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.0 | 42.6 | 88.6 | +3.4 | 60% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 52.0 | 44.0 | 96.0 | +8.0 | 100% | 100% |
| vs Similar (8) | 38.9 | 39.8 | 78.6 | -0.9 | 38% | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 45.9 | 39.7 | 85.6 | +6.2 | 71% | 48% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (14) | 37.6 | 38.6 | 76.2 | -1.1 | 50% | 29% |
| Last 30 at home (8) | 37.2 | 37.4 | 74.6 | -0.1 | 50% | 12% |
| Last 30 away (6) | 38.0 | 40.3 | 78.3 | -2.3 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.7 | 40.2 | 78.9 | -1.5 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 39.8 | 76.2 | -3.4 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 37.4 | 42.6 | 80.0 | -5.2 | 30% | 40% |
| vs Similar (2) | 36.0 | 30.5 | 66.5 | +5.5 | 100% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 40.0 | 27.0 | 67.0 | +13.0 | 100% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desna Bryansk under 78 | 72.6% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | - | - | - | +20.5pp | Won |
| Desna Bryansk under 77.5 | 70.2% | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | - | - | - | +18.1pp | Won |
| Under 173 | 73.1% | 1.59 | 1.64 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Under 172 | 71.0% | 1.66 | 1.72 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 73.6% | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +16.8pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 71.6% | 1.62 | 1.68 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +16.8pp | Won |
| Chelyabinsk (regulation) | 93.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| Chelyabinsk win | 94.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 77.5% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Under 175 | 77.1% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Under 174.5 | 75.6% | 1.56 | 1.56 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Under 174 | 75.1% | 1.58 | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Chelyabinsk -12.5 | 71.0% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Chelyabinsk -13 | 70.1% | 1.58 | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Rusichi Kursk | 93-68 |
| 05/11/26 | A | University-Ugra | 94-79 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Khimki M. | 82-117 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Barnaul | 95-94 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Novosibirsk | 103-94 OT |
| 15/10/26 | A | Tambov | 90-85 |
| 12/10/26 | A | Izhevsk | 87-78 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Metallurg | 93-79 |
| 23/05/26 | A | Khimki M. | 79-61 |
| 20/05/26 | H | Khimki M. | 61-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Metallurg | 65-69 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Dynamo Grozny | 73-80 |
| 02/11/26 | H | CSKA Moscow 2 | 54-81 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Temp Sumz Revda | 62-88 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Ufa | 69-93 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Rusichi Kursk | 89-62 |
| 05/10/26 | H | Khimki M. | 63-73 |
| 02/10/26 | H | University-Ugra | 76-78 |
| 19/09/25 | H | BC Moscow | 56-95 |
| 18/09/25 | H | Rusichi Kursk | 85-98 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLWW | 88% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | WWWLW | 80% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Win % | 88% | 100% | 80% |
| Points / game | 92.1 | 97.0 | 89.2 |
| Allowed / game | 86.8 | 85.3 | 87.6 |
| Point differential | +5.4 | +11.7 | +1.6 |
| Avg total | 178.9 | 182.3 | 176.8 |
| Over 169 | 75% | 67% | 80% |
| Win by 10+ | 38% | 33% | 40% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (2) | 100% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 12% | 33% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 12% |
| Home | LLWLL | 20% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Win % | 12% | 20% | 0% |
| Points / game | 68.9 | 71.0 | 65.3 |
| Allowed / game | 78.0 | 74.8 | 83.3 |
| Point differential | -9.1 | -3.8 | -18.0 |
| Avg total | 146.9 | 145.8 | 148.7 |
| Over 169 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 12% | 20% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ufa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 88.8 | 70.4 | +18.4 |
| 2 |  Temp Sumz Revda | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 91.2 | 79.0 | +12.2 |
| 3 | Chelyabinsk | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 92.1 | 86.8 | +5.4 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Grozny | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 84.0 | 74.9 | +9.1 |
| 5 |  Khimki M. | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 82.9 | 74.9 | +8.0 |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 72.1 | 69.0 | +3.1 |
| 7 |  Tambov | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 75.5 | 76.4 | -0.9 |
| 8 |  Barnaul | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 80.0 | 82.6 | -2.6 |
| 9 | Metallurg | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 73.8 | 78.2 | -4.5 |
| 10 |  Novosibirsk | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 82.0 | 89.0 | -7.0 |
| 11 |  University-Ugra | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 73.9 | 82.6 | -8.7 |
| 12 | Desna Bryansk | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 68.9 | 78.0 | -9.1 |
| 13 |  Izhevsk | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 77.5 | 87.0 | -9.5 |
| 14 |  Rusichi Kursk | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 70.5 | 85.9 | -15.4 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelyabinsk | 26 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 85 |
| Desna Bryansk | 18 | 18 | 20 | 11 | 67 |
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