PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Cincinnati hosts Youngstown State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Bearcats as the clear favourite, assigning them a 94% chance of victory largely because of their 2-1 record, 73.7 points per game and 60.0 points allowed per game, the best defensive stat among the two sides. Cincinnati's season has been solid: 2-1 overall, 73.7 points scored and 60.0 points allowed per game, and they have won both of their home games, scoring 73.7 points per game at home while allowing 60.0. Their last five games include a 61-63 loss to Minnesota, an 81-64 win over Wisc. Green Bay and a 79-53 win over American University. Youngstown State, by contrast, sits at 1-2 overall, 74.0 points per game and 83.7 points allowed per game, and has lost two of its three road outings, with a 78-91 defeat to Central Michigan, a 65-89 loss to Ohio State and a 79-71 win over St. Bonaventure. The Pythia model gives Cincinnati a 94% win probability and Youngstown State a 6% chance, projects a score of 83-65 and a total of 147.2 points, and assigns a 2% probability that the game will go into overtime. The Bearcats' recent 79-53 victory over American University shows they can dominate on home turf.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 73.7 | 60.0 | 133.7 | +13.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 73.7 | 60.0 | 133.7 | +13.7 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.5 | 66.9 | 142.4 | +8.6 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.8 | 62.4 | 134.2 | +9.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 61.7 | 72.8 | 134.5 | -11.2 | 17% |
| vs Similar (12) | 72.4 | 67.3 | 139.8 | +5.1 | 42% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 76.9 | 65.0 | 141.9 | +11.9 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 74.0 | 83.7 | 157.7 | -9.7 | 33% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (3) | 74.0 | 83.7 | 157.7 | -9.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.9 | 78.0 | 150.9 | -5.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 67.6 | 80.8 | 148.4 | -13.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 74.0 | 83.7 | 157.7 | -9.7 | 33% |
| vs Similar (12) | 73.8 | 74.4 | 148.2 | -0.6 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 77.6 | 72.1 | 149.7 | +5.6 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.7 | 31.0 | 65.7 | +3.7 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.0 | 28.6 | 65.6 | +8.4 | 88% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 31.6 | 34.1 | 65.7 | -2.5 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.4 | 31.3 | 66.7 | +4.1 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.2 | 28.2 | 60.4 | +4.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 30.3 | 31.8 | 62.2 | -1.5 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 33.0 | 30.6 | 63.6 | +2.4 | 58% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 38.5 | 31.0 | 69.5 | +7.5 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 33.7 | 70.3 | +3.0 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.7 | 31.4 | 70.1 | +7.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.6 | 35.9 | 70.5 | -1.3 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.5 | 35.6 | 70.1 | -1.1 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.0 | 37.6 | 67.6 | -7.6 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 33.0 | 41.3 | 74.3 | -8.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 36.1 | 34.8 | 70.8 | +1.3 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 37.2 | 31.9 | 69.1 | +5.3 | 50% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Minnesota | 61-63 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Wisc. Green Bay | 81-64 |
| 03/11/26 | H | American University | 79-53 |
| 11/03/26 | A | UCF Knights | 65-66 OT |
| 10/03/26 | H | Utah Utes | 73-66 |
| 07/03/26 | A | TCU | 63-73 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Brigham Young | 90-68 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Oklahoma State | 91-68 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Texas Tech | 68-80 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Kansas | 84-68 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Central Michigan | 78-91 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Ohio State | 65-89 |
| 03/11/26 | A | St. Bonaventure | 79-71 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Robert Morris | 53-68 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Wisc. Green Bay | 63-85 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Wisc. Milwaukee | 65-78 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Northern Kentucky | 64-58 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Cleveland State | 106-82 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Detroit | 70-76 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Oakland | 86-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 73.7 | 73.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 60.0 | 60.0 | - |
| Point differential | +13.7 | +13.7 | - |
| Avg total | 133.7 | 133.7 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLL | 33% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | - | 3 |
| Win % | 33% | - | 33% |
| Points / game | 74.0 | - | 74.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.7 | - | 83.7 |
| Point differential | -9.7 | - | -9.7 |
| Avg total | 157.7 | - | 157.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  TCU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 68.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 4 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 5 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 6 |  Arizona State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.3 | 63.7 | +19.7 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 79.7 | +6.7 |
| 10 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 11 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 12 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 13 |  Arizona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 89.7 | 75.7 | +14.0 |
| 14 | Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wright State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 70.0 | +21.7 |
| 2 |  Wisc. Green Bay | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 75.2 | 66.8 | +8.4 |
| 3 |  Wisc. Milwaukee | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 77.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 |  Cleveland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 75.2 | 88.0 | -12.8 |
| 5 |  Northern Kentucky | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 99.8 | -20.8 |
| 6 |  IPFW | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 74.7 | +3.0 |
| 7 | Youngstown State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.0 | 83.7 | -9.7 |
| 8 |  Oakland | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 69.0 | 95.0 | -26.0 |
| 9 |  Robert Morris | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 52.7 | 80.3 | -27.7 |
| 10 |  Detroit | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 43.5 | 96.5 | -53.0 |
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