Davidson faces Howard on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Davidson 87% to 13% as the clear favourite, a rating driven by Davidson's undefeated 3-0 record, 75.3 points per game and 60.7 allowed, placing them 70th in the league, while Howard sits 218th with a 2-2 record, 74.0 points per game and 73.8 allowed. Davidson has gone 2-0 at home, scoring 75.0 and conceding 60.5, and won four of its last five games, including a 62-45 win over Bradley, a 88-76 win over Mercer and a 76-61 win away at Washington State. Howard's road record is 1-2, averaging 73.7 points and allowing 77.7, with two wins and three losses in its last five, highlighted by a 75-62 victory over Stetson, a 65-78 loss to Penn and a 94-83 win over Alcorn State. The projected score is 78-65 for Davidson, with a projected total of 143.1 points; the home line is -9.5 with a 61% chance of covering, the total line is 141.5 with a 54% over probability, and the overtime probability is 3%. The next game will see Davidson maintain its strong start.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Davidson winLost
86.7%fair 1.15
Best odds1.22
Implied80.3%
Edge+6.4pp
Howard winWon
13.3%fair 7.54
Best odds4.89
Implied19.7%
Edge-6.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Davidson) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136.5Actual: Under 136.5
Over 136.5
65.5%
@ 1.47+2.2pp
Under 136.5
34.5%
@ 2.60-2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 141.5 · main lineActual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
53.6%
@ 1.91+3.6pp
Under 141.5
46.4%
@ 1.91-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
41.4%
@ 2.60+4.8pp
Under 146.5
58.6%
@ 1.47-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Davidson total 71.5Actual: Davidson under 71.5
Over 71.5
74.2%
@ 1.40+9.6pp
Under 71.5
25.8%
@ 2.55-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Davidson total 75.5 · main lineActual: Davidson under 75.5
Over 75.5
59.7%
@ 1.93+10.8pp
Under 75.5
40.3%
@ 1.87-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Davidson total 79.5Actual: Davidson under 79.5
Over 79.5
43.7%
@ 2.57+8.5pp
Under 79.5
56.3%
@ 1.40-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
Howard total 62Actual: Howard over 62
Over 62
62.4%
Under 62
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Howard total 66 · main lineActual: Howard under 66
Over 66
46.2%
@ 1.85-4.1pp
Under 66
53.8%
@ 1.86+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Howard total 70Actual: Howard under 70
Over 70
30.7%
Under 70
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Davidson -12.5Actual: Howard +12.5
DAVI -12.5
50.7%
@ 2.50+11.9pp
HOWA +12.5
49.3%
@ 1.53-11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.30
HOWA
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Spread Davidson -9.5 · main lineActual: Howard +9.5
DAVI -9.5
61.4%
@ 1.95+11.4pp
HOWA +9.5
38.6%
@ 1.93-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.88
HOWA
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.81
Spread Davidson -6.5Actual: Howard +6.5
DAVI -6.5
71.4%
@ 1.57+12.3pp
HOWA +6.5
28.6%
@ 2.27-12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
HOWA
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DavidsonHoward
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Davidson) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Howard win
DAVI win
no forecast
@ 1.42
HOWA win
no forecast
@ 2.87
2nd half Spread Davidson -4.5 · main lineActual: Howard +4.5
DAVI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
HOWA +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Howard (regulation)
DAVI
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
HOWA
no forecast
@ 2.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Davidson -7
70.5%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Davidson -6
73.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Davidson -5
76.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Davidson -6.5
71.4%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Davidson -4
79.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Lost
Davidson (regulation)
85.0%
1.23
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathon Bet
1.21
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Davidson -5.5
74.5%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Davidson -4.5
77.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Davidson -3.5
80.3%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Davidson -3
82.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Davidson -2.5
82.5%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Lost
Davidson -1.5
85.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Lost
Davidson -2
84.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Davidson over 71.5
74.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Davidson over 72.5
70.9%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Davidson over 70.5
77.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Davidson win
86.7%
1.21
Betano
1.22
WilliamHill
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathon Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+6.4pp
Lost
Davidson +6.5
94.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Davidson +10.5
97.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.2%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Howard under 70.5
70.3%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Howard under 71.5
73.6%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Howard under 81.5
94.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Howard under 79.5
91.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Howard under 73.5
79.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Davidson under 94.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Davidson under 92.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Howard under 75.5
84.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Howard under 76.5
86.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 134
71.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Howard under 77.5
88.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 133.5
72.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Over 121.5
90.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 166.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Howard over 51.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
76.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Lost
Davidson under 90.5
89.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 126.5
84.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Lost
Howard over 53.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Davidson under 88.5
85.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Howard over 55.5
83.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Howard +24.5
85.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Howard over 56.5
80.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Howard over 57.5
77.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Davidson under 86.5
80.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Howard over 59.5
71.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Under 156.5
79.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Davidson under 84.5
74.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Davidson under 85.5
77.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Howard +19.5
72.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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