Defensor hosts Larranaga in the Liga Uruguaya on 11 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 74% versus 26% for the visitors, and projecting a 86-79 win; the total is set at 164.3 points. Defensor has gone 2-2 in all four games this season, scoring 77.2 points per game and allowing 77.0, while on home turf they are unbeaten 2-0, averaging 81.0 points and conceding 67.5; their last five games include a 79-71 home victory over Urunday and a 65-84 loss to Penarol away. Larranaga is 2-3 overall, with 84.6 points scored and 85.2 allowed, and they have lost both of their two road outings, averaging 72.5 points and conceding 92.0; their recent road record is 0-2 and their last five games feature a 109-73 home win over Atenas and a 71-90 loss to Urunday. The teams have met twice before, most recently on 30 October 2026 when Larranaga fell 71-90 to Urunday. The spread is set at -12.5 for Defensor with a 31% chance of covering, and the over line is 161.5 with a 56% probability of exceeding it, while the game has a 4% chance of going into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 77.2 | 77.0 | 154.2 | +0.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 81.0 | 67.5 | 148.5 | +13.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 73.5 | 86.5 | 160.0 | -13.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.8 | 80.2 | 155.0 | -5.4 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.0 | 80.2 | 158.2 | -2.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 77.6 | 84.8 | 162.4 | -7.2 | 31% |
| vs Similar ◀ (11) | 82.1 | 80.6 | 162.7 | +1.5 | 45% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 91.0 | 86.7 | 177.7 | +4.3 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 84.6 | 85.2 | 169.8 | -0.6 | 40% |
| Season at home (3) | 92.7 | 80.7 | 173.3 | +12.0 | 67% |
| Season away (2) | 72.5 | 92.0 | 164.5 | -19.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (5) | 84.6 | 85.2 | 169.8 | -0.6 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.6 | 85.2 | 169.8 | -0.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 74.0 | 94.0 | 168.0 | -20.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (2) | 81.0 | 82.5 | 163.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 93.5 | 83.5 | 177.0 | +10.0 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.2 | 44.1 | 86.3 | -1.9 | 47% | 73% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 42.4 | 40.9 | 83.3 | +1.4 | 57% | 71% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 42.0 | 46.9 | 88.9 | -4.9 | 38% | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.0 | 43.9 | 83.9 | -3.9 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.4 | 44.0 | 86.4 | -1.6 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 42.1 | 45.8 | 87.9 | -3.7 | 38% | 75% |
| vs Similar ◀ (11) | 39.8 | 41.2 | 81.0 | -1.4 | 45% | 64% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 51.0 | 45.7 | 96.7 | +5.3 | 100% | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (5) | 39.4 | 42.4 | 81.8 | -3.0 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (3) | 45.7 | 41.3 | 87.0 | +4.3 | 33% | 67% |
| Last 30 away (2) | 30.0 | 44.0 | 74.0 | -14.0 | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 (5) | 39.4 | 42.4 | 81.8 | -3.0 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 42.4 | 81.8 | -3.0 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 22.0 | 48.0 | 70.0 | -26.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (2) | 41.0 | 43.5 | 84.5 | -2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 46.5 | 38.5 | 85.0 | +8.0 | 50% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larranaga +16 | 79.2% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Larranaga +17.5 | 82.0% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Larranaga +14 | 73.7% | 1.65 | 1.68 | 1.61 | - | - | - | +16.1pp | Won |
| Larranaga +15 | 76.6% | 1.56 | 1.60 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Won |
| Larranaga +14.5 | 74.5% | 1.54 | 1.64 | 1.56 | 1.41 | - | - | +15.2pp | Won |
| Larranaga +15.5 | 77.2% | 1.46 | 1.57 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Larranaga +16.5 | 79.7% | 1.39 | 1.50 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +13.7pp | Won |
| Larranaga over 72.5 | 71.9% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +13.3pp | Won |
| Larranaga +22.5 | 90.8% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Won |
| Larranaga over 71.5 | 75.2% | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +12.8pp | Won |
| Larranaga over 70.5 | 78.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +12.7pp | Won |
| Larranaga over 69.5 | 81.0% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +12.6pp | Won |
| Larranaga +13 | 70.7% | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 1.58 | - | - | +12.1pp | Won |
| Larranaga +13.5 | 71.6% | 1.59 | 1.74 | 1.54 | 1.49 | - | - | +11.5pp | Won |
| Larranaga over 67.5 | 85.9% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Won |
| Defensor under 97.5 | 87.8% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Defensor under 95.5 | 83.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| Defensor under 93.5 | 78.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Defensor under 99.5 | 91.4% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Defensor under 96.5 | 85.7% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Won |
| Over 151.5 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Over 146.5 | 85.9% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Won |
| Defensor under 91.5 | 71.7% | 1.35 | 1.41 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Over 141.5 | 91.7% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Won |
| Defensor over 71.5 | 91.9% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | - |
| Defensor over 75.5 | 84.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +2.9pp | Won |
| Defensor over 73.5 | 88.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +2.4pp | Won |
| Defensor over 76.5 | 81.8% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| Defensor over 77.5 | 79.1% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Defensor +12.5 | 94.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.2pp | Won |
| Under 186.5 | 90.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 94.5 | 93.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 95.5 | 94.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 93.5 | 92.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Defensor over 79.5 | 73.0% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 91.5 | 89.0% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -1.4pp | Won |
| Under 181.5 | 85.1% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -1.5pp | Won |
| Defensor +7.5 | 89.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Won |
| Under 176.5 | 77.3% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | -2.2pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 89.5 | 85.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -3.5pp | Won |
| Defensor (regulation) | 71.0% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -3.8pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 87.5 | 80.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -5.5pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 85.5 | 75.1% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | -7.2pp | Won |
| Larranaga under 84.5 | 72.0% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | -7.5pp | Lost |
| Defensor +2.5 | 78.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -8.7pp | Won |
| Defensor win | 73.5% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.10 | -9.7pp | Won |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.9 | 18.6 | 50.3% | 37.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.0 | 8.0 | 32.1% | 24.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.1 | 15.5 | 70.5% | 15.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 37.8 | 20.2 | 50.3% | 40.5 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.5 | 8.8 | 32.1% | 26.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.5 | 11.0 | 70.5% | 11.0 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.2 | 81.0 | 73.5 |
| Allowed / game | 77.0 | 67.5 | 86.5 |
| Point differential | +0.2 | +13.5 | -13.0 |
| Avg total | 154.2 | 148.5 | 160.0 |
| Over 161.25 | 25% | 0% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 40% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Points / game | 84.6 | 92.7 | 72.5 |
| Allowed / game | 85.2 | 80.7 | 92.0 |
| Point differential | -0.6 | +12.0 | -19.5 |
| Avg total | 169.8 | 173.3 | 164.5 |
| Over 161.25 | 80% | 100% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 73.5 | +17.5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 93.5 | 83.7 | +9.8 | |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 92.8 | 84.8 | +8.0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 84.6 | 81.4 | +3.2 | |
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 78.4 | 75.8 | +2.6 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.2 | 77.0 | +0.2 | |
| 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.5 | 79.7 | -3.2 | |
| 8 | Larranaga | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 84.6 | 85.2 | -0.6 |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 79.7 | 80.7 | -1.0 | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 89.6 | 95.4 | -5.8 | |
| 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 77.2 | 84.5 | -7.3 | |
| 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 71.0 | 88.7 | -17.7 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 20 | 20 | 28 | 91 | |
| Larranaga | 18 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 85 |
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