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Denizli Basket vs Galatasaray Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Projected 79-86
Projected total 165.7
Final 74-87
17-17 12-24 21-23 24-23
Position#15
Record1-4
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game85.8
Vs
27%
73%
■ DEN 27%■ GAL 73%
Pythia win probability
Position#5
Record2-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game88.6
Allowed / game80.2
TurkeyBasketbol Süper LigiRound 6· Pamukkale Üniversitesi Spor Salonu
Domestic2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Denizli Basket host Galatasaray in the Basketbol Super Ligi. Pythia makes Galatasaray the favourite at 73% and projects 79-86, about 166 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Denizli Basket are 1-4 this season (80.8 scored, 85.8 allowed a game), form LLWLL; Galatasaray are 2-3 this season (88.6 scored, 80.2 allowed a game), form LLLWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denizli Basket winLost
27.2%fair 3.68
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Galatasaray winWon
72.8%fair 1.37
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denizli BasketTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBasket
Date
Competition
Vechta
#20
L
98-101
98
101
-3
92avg 77
A15/09
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#6
L
81-85
81
85
-4
72avg 77
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Tofas
#11
W
101-87
101
87
+14
98avg 77
H03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
W
83-69
83
69
+14
82avg 77
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
76-85
76
85
-9
68avg 77
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#6
L
91-96
91
96
-5
84avg 77
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#7
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 77
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
80-76
80
76
+4
77avg 77
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#1
L
76-97
76
97
-21
70avg 77
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
L
86-94 OT
86
94
-8
77avg 77
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
17-19
28-34
33-24
24-25
21-22
21-23
15-15
30-22
20-14
25-25
26-26
30-21
19-20
16-16
18-12
16-26
18-24
27-22
15-13
23-28
22-22
17-27
29-19
16-17
12-23
25-16
17-19
19-24
23-15
15-17
23-20
13-29
27-18
17-28
19-22
18-14
24-19
12-27
26-20
170.7Avg total
84.2Scored
86.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.885.8166.6-5.020%
Season at home (2)85.581.0166.5+4.550%
Season away (3)77.789.0166.7-11.30%
Last 10 (10)84.286.5170.7-2.330%
Last 5 (5)80.687.6168.2-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)77.884.0161.8-6.222%
vs Similar (8)72.473.5145.9-1.162%
vs Weaker (12)77.672.8150.3+4.867%
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GalatasarayTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGalatasaray
Date
Competition
Besiktas
#2
L
83-108
83
108
-25
73avg 77
A26/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
W
78-75
78
75
+3
66avg 77
H28/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
68-71
68
71
-3
56avg 77
A30/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cayirova
#14
W
102-79
102
79
+23
100avg 77
H26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Karsiyaka
#8
L
71-78 OT
71
78
-7
62avg 77
A02/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cibona
#36
L
76-96
76
96
-20
72avg 77
A06/10
Champions League
Bursaspor
#16
L
88-93
88
93
-5
78avg 77
H12/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#10
L
80-83
80
83
-3
73avg 77
A18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Strasbourg
#11
W
83-77
83
77
+6
82avg 77
H20/10
Champions League
Bordo Bandirma
#13
W
102-68
102
68
+34
105avg 77
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-29
23-27
21-32
21-20
21-23
19-16
14-21
24-15
17-25
15-14
23-19
13-13
26-18
31-25
21-30
24-6
13-18
21-17
14-15
17-15
24-24
18-26
19-21
15-25
20-20
21-25
19-21
28-27
22-19
17-25
21-20
20-19
21-16
21-17
20-23
21-21
21-19
17-15
30-11
34-23
165.9Avg total
83.1Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)88.680.2168.8+8.440%
Season at home (3)97.380.0177.3+17.367%
Season away (2)75.580.5156.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)83.182.8165.9+0.340%
Last 5 (5)85.883.4169.2+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)79.983.6163.5-3.838%
vs Similar (8)77.684.9162.5-7.238%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)87.981.3169.2+6.664%
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1251%1303%1354%1406%1459%15011%15512%16012%16511%17010%1757%1805%1853%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
1%1253%1356%14511%15512%16510%1755%1852%1951%205
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%).
Over/Under 160Actual: Over 160
Over 160
63.0%
Under 160
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165Actual: Under 165
Over 165
51.0%
Under 165
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170Actual: Under 170
Over 170
39.0%
Under 170
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Denizli Basket total 80Actual: Denizli Basket under 80
Over 80
46.8%
Under 80
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 84Actual: Denizli Basket under 84
Over 84
32.1%
Under 84
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 88Actual: Denizli Basket under 88
Over 88
20.1%
Under 88
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray total 77Actual: Galatasaray over 77
Over 77
82.9%
Under 77
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray total 81Actual: Galatasaray over 81
Over 81
70.8%
Under 81
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray total 85Actual: Galatasaray over 85
Over 85
55.6%
Under 85
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-391%-361%-332%-303%-274%-246%-217%-188%-159%-1210%-910%-69%-35%+08%+36%+64%+93%+122%+151%+181%+211%+24
1%-362%-304%-247%-189%-1210%-65%+06%+63%+121%+181%+24
Margin from Denizli Basket's side (positive = Denizli Basket win). Pythia's expected margin is -7.0; Denizli Basket win by 1+ in 24% of simulations.
Spread Denizli Basket -3Actual: Galatasaray +3
DEN -3
20.2%
GAL +3
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
GAL
No market prices yet.
Spread Denizli Basket 0Actual: Galatasaray 0
DEN 0
27.2%
GAL 0
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
GAL
No market prices yet.
Spread Denizli Basket +3Actual: Galatasaray -3
DEN +3
34.5%
GAL -3
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
GAL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: +3.3+3.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: +3.3+3.3
Denizli BasketGalatasaray
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denizli BasketLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#20
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A15/09
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#6
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Tofas
#11
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H03/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H06/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A11/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Benfica
#6
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#7
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#1
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
83.8Avg total
41.2Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.338.777.0-0.540%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.335.273.5+3.157%-
Last 30 away (16)38.241.880.1-3.625%-
Last 10 (10)41.242.683.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)39.441.881.2-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)40.145.885.9-5.722%-
vs Similar (8)35.435.070.4+0.438%-
vs Weaker (12)38.935.674.5+3.358%-
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GalatasarayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Besiktas
#2
L
41-56
41
56
-15
A26/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H28/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A30/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cayirova
#14
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Karsiyaka
#8
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A02/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cibona
#36
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A06/10
Champions League
Bursaspor
#16
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H12/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#10
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Strasbourg
#11
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H20/10
Champions League
Bordo Bandirma
#13
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
82.4Avg total
40.6Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.541.481.9-1.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.441.183.6+1.350%-
Last 30 away (16)38.841.780.4-2.950%-
Last 10 (10)40.641.882.4-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)40.441.281.6-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)39.440.680.0-1.250%-
vs Similar (8)38.142.280.4-4.150%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)42.441.483.9+1.050%-
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denizli Baskettheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denizli Basket: 84.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.1 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.120.4
50.9%
54.8%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.8
37.4%
35.9%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.117.0
80.6%
75.9%17.0
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Galatasaraytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Galatasaray: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.1 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.5
55.1%
54.8%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.38.1
33.3%
35.9%24.3
🏀 Free throws22.916.8
73.4%
75.9%16.8
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denizli Basket
LLWLLLWWLL
Galatasaray
WWLLLLWLWL
#15
League position
#5
-1.2
Net rating
-0.9
97.8
Offensive rating
99.7
98.9
Defensive rating
100.6
52.8%
Effective FG%
53.1%
52.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
14.7%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.37
37.4%
3-point %
33.3%
56.5%
Assist %
57.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence97.8 · 99.7Defence98.9 · 100.6Shooting52.8% · 53.1%3-point %37.4% · 33.3%Ball care14.7% · 12.9%Free throws0.33 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Denizli Basket   ■ Galatasaray
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Denizli Basket wins
0
Galatasaray wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26AAbsheron Lions86-94 OT
24/10/26ATurk Telekom76-97
21/10/26AGeneva Lions80-76
18/10/26HTrabzonspor70-75
14/10/26ABenfica91-96
11/10/26AAnadolu Efes76-85
06/10/26HBC Prievidza83-69
03/10/26HTofas101-87
26/09/26APetkim Spor81-85
15/09/26AVechta98-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26HBordo Bandirma102-68
20/10/26HStrasbourg83-77
18/10/26ABesiktas80-83
12/10/26HBursaspor88-93
06/10/26ACibona76-96
02/10/26AKarsiyaka71-78 OT
26/09/26HCayirova102-79
30/05/26ABesiktas68-71
28/05/26HBesiktas78-75
26/05/26ABesiktas83-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denizli Basket
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL20%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%50%0%
Points / game80.885.577.7
Allowed / game85.881.089.0
Point differential-5.0+4.5-11.3
Avg total166.6166.5166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Galatasaray
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW40%
HomeWLW67%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%67%0%
Points / game88.697.375.5
Allowed / game80.280.080.5
Point differential+8.4+17.3-5.0
Avg total168.8177.3156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%0%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bahcesehir Kol.65183%92.086.7+5.3
2 Turk Telekom54180%80.471.8+8.6
3 Anadolu Efes54180%85.677.2+8.4
4 Esenler Erokspor54180%85.682.8+2.8
5 Trabzonspor64267%83.382.0+1.3
6 Fenerbahce53260%88.484.2+4.2
7 Petkim Spor53260%83.683.4+0.2
8 Galatasaray52340%88.680.2+8.4
9 Karsiyaka52340%79.882.4-2.6
10 Tofas52340%79.884.0-4.2
11 Besiktas52340%82.688.8-6.2
12 Korfez Basket62433%82.084.5-2.5
13 Bordo Bandirma62433%83.085.7-2.7
14 Denizli Basket51420%80.885.8-5.0
15 Bursaspor51420%76.484.2-7.8
16 Cayirova51420%80.489.0-8.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denizli Basket1712212474
Galatasaray1724232387
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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