Drexel hosts Colgate on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and Pythia rates the Dragons the clear favourite, with an 83% chance of victory, largely because their projected 78 points outpace Colgate's 67 and the model assigns a 78% probability that Drexel will cover the -2.5 line; the Dragons have a 0-1 record this season, averaging 60.0 points and allowing 89.0, while Colgate also sits at 0-1, averaging 76.0 and conceding 90.0, and the last meeting saw Colgate win 90-83 on 11 November 2025. Drexel's single game was a 60-89 loss to Virginia, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 84-77 home win over Northeastern; Colgate's lone game was a 76-90 loss to Washington, and their last five games include one win and four losses, with a recent 90-77 home victory over Loyola Maryland. The projected total of 144.5 points carries a 49% chance of the over, and the overtime probability sits at 3%. The game will likely end 78-67 in favour of Drexel, with the Dragons' stronger offensive output and the model's confidence in their ability to cover the spread.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drexel winWon
82.9%fair 1.21
Best odds1.95
Implied49.4%
Edge+33.5pp
Colgate winLost
17.1%fair 5.84
Best odds1.98
Implied50.6%
Edge-33.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Drexel) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5Actual: Over 139.5
Over 139.5
61.5%
@ 1.80+8.1pp
Under 139.5
38.5%
@ 3.00-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Be
1.76
SBO
1.74
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.93
Over/Under 144.5 · main lineActual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
49.4%
@ 2.32-0.6pp
Under 144.5
50.6%
@ 1.90+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
37.5%
@ 2.40-2.6pp
Under 149.5
62.5%
@ 1.58+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Drexel total 69.5Actual: Drexel over 69.5
Over 69.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under 69.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.98
Drexel total 73.5 · main lineActual: Drexel over 73.5
Over 73.5
66.1%
@ 2.38+17.0pp
Under 73.5
33.9%
@ 1.85-17.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Drexel total 77.5Actual: Drexel under 77.5
Over 77.5
50.6%
@ 3.50+17.1pp
Under 77.5
49.4%
@ 1.47-17.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.25
Colgate total 67.5Actual: Colgate over 67.5
Over 67.5
46.8%
@ 1.53-15.7pp
Under 67.5
53.2%
@ 3.05+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.22
Colgate total 71.5 · main lineActual: Colgate over 71.5
Over 71.5
31.9%
@ 2.12-18.1pp
Under 71.5
68.1%
@ 1.93+18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
BetVictor
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.65
Colgate total 75.5Actual: Colgate under 75.5
Over 75.5
19.7%
@ 3.20-10.4pp
Under 75.5
80.3%
@ 1.50+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Drexel -2Actual: Drexel -2
DREX -2
80.4%
@ 2.17+36.3pp
COLG +2
19.6%
@ 1.83-36.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DREX
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathon Be
2.01
Bet365
1.90
COLG
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Spread Drexel +1 · main lineActual: Drexel +1
DREX +1
84.2%
@ 1.87+33.1pp
COLG -1
15.8%
@ 2.15-33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DREX
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.62
COLG
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.96
SBO
1.96
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Drexel +4Actual: Drexel +4
DREX +4
89.7%
@ 1.40+23.1pp
COLG -4
10.3%
@ 2.80-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DREX
Bet365
1.40
COLG
Bet365
2.80
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DrexelColgate
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Drexel -3
77.3%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.38
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
-
-
+37.1pp
Push
Drexel -2
80.4%
2.03
Pinnacle
2.17
Marathon Bet
2.01
Bet365
1.90
-
-
+36.3pp
Won
Drexel -2.5
77.8%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.12
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
+35.8pp
Won
Drexel -1
82.6%
1.88
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.74
-
+34.5pp
Won
Drexel -1.5
81.0%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
+34.5pp
Won
Drexel (regulation)
80.9%
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.96
Betano
1.90
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Won
Drexel win
82.9%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.95
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+33.5pp
Won
Drexel -3.5
75.3%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+33.5pp
Lost
Drexel +1
84.2%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.81
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.62
-
+33.1pp
Won
Drexel -4.5
72.1%
2.33
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+32.3pp
Lost
Drexel +1.5
84.5%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
SBO
1.74
Betano
1.70
+31.9pp
Won
Drexel +2
86.4%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.75
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.54
-
+31.8pp
Won
Drexel -5
71.2%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+30.9pp
Lost
Drexel -4
74.5%
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
-
+30.9pp
Lost
Drexel +2.5
86.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.64
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
+30.2pp
Won
Drexel +3.5
88.3%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Drexel +3
88.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Colgate under 73
73.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Drexel +4.5
89.9%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Won
Drexel +4
89.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Drexel +5.5
91.3%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Drexel +5
91.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Colgate under 72.5
71.5%
1.74
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.53
+21.2pp
Lost
Colgate under 72
70.5%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Drexel +6
92.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Drexel +6.5
92.6%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Drexel +7.5
93.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
Betano
1.23
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Colgate under 77.5
85.1%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Colgate under 76.5
82.8%
1.32
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Drexel +12.5
97.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Colgate under 73.5
74.6%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Colgate under 74.5
77.6%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Colgate under 75.5
80.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Drexel +17.5
98.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
70.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Over 134.5
72.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
74.7%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Drexel +22.5
99.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.1pp
-
Under 154.5
73.4%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 153
70.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 171.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 153.5
71.3%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 154
72.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 166.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
77.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
85.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Drexel under 91.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Colgate over 52.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 121.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Colgate over 53.5
90.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Drexel under 89.5
88.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Colgate over 54.5
88.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Colgate over 55.5
86.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Colgate over 56.5
84.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Drexel under 87.5
84.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Colgate +22.5
84.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
78.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Colgate over 57.5
81.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Colgate over 58.5
79.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Drexel under 85.5
78.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Drexel under 84.5
75.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Colgate over 60.5
73.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Colgate over 59.5
76.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Drexel under 83.5
72.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Colgate +17.5
72.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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