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Estonia vs Lithuania Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 26 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 65-59
17-18 24-19 9-13 15-9
Position#10
Record1-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game69.0
Estonia 🏆
vs
Position#4
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game64.0
EuropeEuroBasketRound 2· Unibet Arena
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Italy
#11
L
62-83
62
83
-21
no box
A02/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
L
73-74
73
74
-1
no box
H03/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
70-73
70
73
-3
no box
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
94-62
94
62
+32
no box
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
69-90
69
90
-21
no box
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
71-91
71
91
-20
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
79-78
79
78
+1
no box
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
W
72-71
72
71
+1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
67avg 67
A23/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
15-31
19-17
10-14
21-15
14-18
26-23
12-18
16-20
13-13
19-20
22-20
24-18
25-18
29-17
16-9
21-27
15-24
13-26
20-13
13-27
24-12
24-20
21-28
16-21
25-18
15-27
15-25
24-16
13-24
18-19
24-19
17-16
11-14
15-14
29-27
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
152.4Avg total
74.6Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)74.069.0143.0+5.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)74.069.0143.0+5.0100%
Last 10 (10)74.677.8152.4-3.240%
Last 5 (5)75.679.2154.8-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)72.181.4153.5-9.330%
vs Similar (3)77.075.3152.3+1.767%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Hungary
#42
W
89-64
89
64
+25
no box
H23/02
World Cup
France
#8
L
63-70
63
70
-7
no box
A26/02
World Cup
Egypt
#27
W
93-67
93
67
+26
no box
A25/08
World Cup
Mexico
#26
W
96-66
96
66
+30
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
W
91-71
91
71
+20
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
92-67
92
67
+25
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
68-87
68
87
-19
no box
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
100-84
100
84
+16
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
83-64
83
64
+19
76avg 76
H22/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-16
26-15
23-14
26-19
14-11
13-24
16-18
20-17
26-12
20-22
24-19
23-14
32-17
21-17
23-17
20-15
26-27
22-13
18-10
25-21
20-20
19-23
25-15
28-9
25-24
13-25
17-24
13-14
33-21
20-22
22-20
25-21
20-28
18-21
9-28
16-21
16-19
19-11
27-19
21-15
157.6Avg total
83.8Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)83.064.0147.0+19.0100%
Season at home (1)83.064.0147.0+19.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.873.8157.6+10.070%
Last 5 (5)81.280.0161.2+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.091.2165.2-17.20%
vs Similar (9)84.378.0162.3+6.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)84.868.7153.5+16.194%
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +5.1+5.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +5.1+5.1
EstoniaLithuania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Italy
#11
L
33-52
33
52
-19
A02/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H03/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A05/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
75.7Avg total
36.1Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.539.976.4-3.433%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.339.776.1-3.433%-
Last 30 away (15)36.740.176.8-3.333%-
Last 10 (10)36.139.675.7-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)35.838.274.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)36.339.776.0-3.433%-
vs Similar (3)38.742.080.7-3.333%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hungary
#42
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H23/02
World Cup
France
#8
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A26/02
World Cup
Egypt
#27
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A25/08
World Cup
Mexico
#26
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H27/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H22/02
EuroBasket
80.5Avg total
41.7Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.838.680.3+3.267%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.839.481.2+2.465%-
Last 30 away (13)41.837.579.2+4.369%-
Last 10 (10)41.738.880.5+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)40.642.883.4-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.043.882.8-4.820%-
vs Similar (9)43.840.984.7+2.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)41.535.677.1+5.981%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 72.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.020.0
57.1%
50.6%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.0
31.8%
32.5%21.0
🏀 Free throws23.011.0
47.8%
71.4%11.0
They take 57.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.017.0
54.8%
50.6%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.013.0
39.4%
32.5%39.0
🏀 Free throws15.010.0
66.7%
71.4%10.0
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 1/1 games with a box score before 26 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
WWWLLLWLLL
Lithuania
WLWLWWWWLW
#10
League position
#4
+4.3
Net rating
+32.4
102.4
Offensive rating
128.2
98.2
Defensive rating
95.7
53.5%
Effective FG%
57.0%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
22.8%
Turnover %
6.2%
39.4%
Off. rebound %
27.8%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.23
31.8%
3-point %
39.4%
63.0%
Assist %
63.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence102.4 · 128.2Defence98.2 · 95.7Shooting53.5% · 57.0%3-point %31.8% · 39.4%Ball care22.8% · 6.2%Off. rebounds39.4% · 27.8%Free throws0.40 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Estonia   ■ Lithuania
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Estonia wins
0
Lithuania wins
No previous meetings.
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
27/02/23ASweden72-71
24/02/23HSlovenia79-78
14/11/22AFinland71-91
11/11/22HSweden82-87
08/09/22HGreece69-90
06/09/22HGreat Britain94-62
05/09/22ACroatia70-73
03/09/22HUkraine73-74
02/09/22AItaly62-83
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/02/24HPoland83-64
09/09/23ALatvia63-98
07/09/23HSlovenia100-84
05/09/23HSerbia68-87
01/09/23HGreece92-67
29/08/23AMontenegro91-71
27/08/23HMexico96-66
25/08/23AEgypt93-67
26/02/23AFrance63-70
23/02/23HHungary89-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game74.0-74.0
Allowed / game69.0-69.0
Point differential+5.0-+5.0
Avg total143.0-143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Lithuania
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game83.083.0-
Allowed / game64.064.0-
Point differential+19.0+19.0-
Avg total147.0147.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bosnia & Herzegovina110100%99.066.0+33.0
2 Lithuania110100%83.064.0+19.0
3 Serbia110100%77.061.0+16.0
4 Italy220100%85.071.0+14.0
5 France110100%73.061.0+12.0
6 Slovenia220100%87.576.0+11.5
7 Belgium220100%66.556.5+10.0
8 Greece110100%72.064.0+8.0
9 Latvia220100%71.563.5+8.0
10 Estonia110100%74.069.0+5.0
11 Great Britain110100%98.094.0+4.0
12 Croatia119282%83.467.1+16.3
13 Portugal86275%82.971.6+11.2
14 Bulgaria129375%79.472.2+7.2
15 Poland75271%79.670.7+8.9
16 North Macedonia75271%72.164.1+8.0
17 Slovakia128467%73.268.8+4.4
18 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
19 Denmark169756%77.272.2+5.1
20 Germany21150%73.564.0+9.5
21 Iceland21150%72.570.5+2.0
22 Montenegro21150%78.077.5+0.5
23 Turkey21150%78.081.0-3.0
24 Israel21150%75.579.0-3.5
25 Sweden21150%77.082.5-5.5
26 Finland21150%75.081.0-6.0
27 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
28 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
29 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
30 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
31 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
32 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
33 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
34 Cyprus131128%63.580.0-16.5
35 Netherlands1010%94.098.0-4.0
36 Spain2020%64.068.5-4.5
37 Georgia1010%69.075.0-6.0
38 Czech Republic1010%64.072.0-8.0
39 Ukraine2020%75.083.0-8.0
40 Hungary2020%63.576.5-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia172491565
Lithuania181913959
← all games of the day
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