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Fairfield vs Vermont Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 74-69
Projected total 143.1
Final 67-79
25-38 42-41
Position#302
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Vs
68%
32%
■ FAIR 68%■ VERM 32%
Pythia win probability
Vermont 🏆
USA
Position#225
Record0-1
FormWWWLL
Points / game55.0
Allowed / game56.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Fairfield hosts Vermont on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Fairfield at 68% to 32% and projecting a 74-69 win for the home side. Fairfield's season record of 0-1 in all games shows a modest start, with an average of 55.0 points scored and 56.0 allowed, while Vermont's single game record of 0-1 mirrors that, also averaging 55.0 points and 56.0 allowed; both teams sit at league position 228. In recent form, Fairfield has won 3 of its last 5 games, including a 74-55 win over St. Peters away on 6 March 2026 and a 71-60 home victory over Manhattan on 5 March 2026, while Vermont has also won 3 of its last 5, with a 63-54 home win over NJIT on 10 March 2026. Their head-to-head history shows one meeting, with Fairfield winning 67-66 on 24 November 2024. The spread line is -1.5, with a 65% chance that Fairfield covers, and the total line is 141.5 with a 53% probability of the over; the game carries a 5% chance of overtime. The projected total points are 143.1, and the final score is expected to be 74-69.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fairfield winLost
68.1%fair 1.47
Best odds2.05
Implied47.7%
Edge+20.4pp
Vermont winWon
31.9%fair 3.13
Best odds1.92
Implied52.3%
Edge-20.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FairfieldUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacred Heart
#262
W
92-87
92
87
+5
A06/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
63-60
63
60
+3
H08/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
74-83
74
83
-9
A15/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
78-68
78
68
+10
H21/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
72-58
72
58
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
47-69
47
69
-22
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
71-60
71
60
+11
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
74-55
74
55
+19
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A09/03
NCAA
1H
2H
47-38
45-49
28-25
35-35
23-43
51-40
32-37
46-31
39-36
46-43
37-23
35-35
25-39
22-30
31-27
40-33
30-30
44-25
30-40
31-36
141.2Avg total
71.7Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.769.5141.2+2.270%
Last 5 (5)65.063.6128.6+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)73.174.2147.3-1.250%
vs Weaker (14)77.568.7146.2+8.879%
VermontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Binghamton
#352
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A12/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
90-63
90
63
+27
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
69-56
69
56
+13
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
59-74
59
74
-15
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#137
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-32
38-33
39-27
51-36
26-38
36-37
30-30
40-34
34-30
32-34
31-26
38-30
38-27
39-30
26-18
37-36
28-30
31-44
29-21
26-35
131.2Avg total
68.4Scored
62.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)55.056.0111.0-1.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)55.056.0111.0-1.00%
Last 10 (10)68.462.8131.2+5.670%
Last 5 (5)64.659.4124.0+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)62.867.4130.2-4.620%
vs Similar (4)71.871.8143.5+0.050%
vs Weaker (21)71.365.7137.0+5.671%
Over/Under 136Actual: Over 136
Over 136
66.6%
@ 1.40+0.3pp
Under 136
33.4%
@ 2.75-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 141 · main lineActual: Over 141
Over 141
54.6%
@ 1.92+5.1pp
Under 141
45.4%
@ 2.00-5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 146Push
Over 146
42.2%
@ 2.40+3.4pp
Under 146
57.8%
@ 1.52-3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Fairfield total 67.5Actual: Fairfield under 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.25
Fairfield total 71.5 · main lineActual: Fairfield under 71.5
Over 71.5
60.5%
@ 2.07+11.3pp
Under 71.5
39.5%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.67
Fairfield total 75.5Actual: Fairfield under 75.5
Over 75.5
44.9%
@ 2.95+14.1pp
Under 75.5
55.1%
@ 1.31-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.31
Vermont total 66Actual: Vermont over 66
Over 66
61.1%
Under 66
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vermont total 70 · main lineActual: Vermont over 70
Over 70
45.1%
@ 1.85-4.9pp
Under 70
54.9%
@ 1.85+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Vermont total 74Actual: Vermont over 74
Over 74
30.1%
Under 74
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Fairfield -1.5Actual: Vermont +1.5
FAIR -1.5
65.5%
@ 2.17+21.4pp
VERM +1.5
34.5%
@ 1.86-21.4pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.12
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.91
VERM
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.82
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Spread Fairfield +1.5 · main lineActual: Vermont -1.5
FAIR +1.5
70.5%
@ 1.93+20.5pp
VERM -1.5
29.5%
@ 1.95-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
VERM
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Fairfield +4.5Actual: Vermont -4.5
FAIR +4.5
79.3%
@ 1.52+16.5pp
VERM -4.5
20.7%
@ 2.67-16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
VERM
Bet365
2.67
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +1.9+1.9
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.6-1.61st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +1.9+1.9
FairfieldVermont
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
FairfieldLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacred Heart
#262
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A06/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
28-25
28
25
+3
H08/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
23-43
23
43
-20
A15/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#123
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H06/03
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A07/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A09/03
NCAA
66.0Avg total
32.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)35.733.869.5+1.953%70%
Last 30 at home (16)35.631.567.1+4.169%56%
Last 30 away (14)35.836.472.2-0.636%86%
Last 10 (10)32.233.866.0-1.650%50%
Last 5 (5)30.631.862.4-1.240%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)34.535.269.8-0.844%81%
vs Weaker (14)37.032.169.1+4.964%57%
VermontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Binghamton
#352
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
26-18
26
18
+8
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#137
W
29-21
29
21
+8
A03/11
NCAA
59.5Avg total
31.6Scored
27.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)32.130.462.5+1.653%47%
Last 30 at home (16)32.929.962.8+3.162%44%
Last 30 away (14)31.131.162.1+0.043%50%
Last 10 (10)31.627.959.5+3.770%20%
Last 5 (5)30.424.454.8+6.080%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.630.659.2-2.020%20%
vs Similar (4)33.230.864.0+2.550%50%
vs Weaker (21)32.730.363.0+2.362%52%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vermont win
FAIR win
no forecast
@ 1.95
VERM win
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Fairfield 0 · main lineActual: Vermont 0
FAIR 0
no forecast
@ 1.86
VERM 0
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 65.5 · main lineActual: Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Fairfield 1st half total 32.5 · main lineActual: Fairfield under 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Vermont 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: Vermont over 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: FAIR + total 65.5
FAIR & over
no forecast
@ 4.00
FAIR & under
no forecast
@ 3.75
1st half: Draw + total 65.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 23.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 21.00
1st half: VERM + total 65.5
VERM & over
no forecast
@ 3.80
VERM & under
no forecast
@ 3.55
1st half Over/Under 67Actual: Under 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Under 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Spread Fairfield -1.5Actual: Vermont +1.5
FAIR -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
VERM +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Fairfield +1.5Actual: Vermont -1.5
FAIR +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
VERM -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Over/Under 61.5Actual: Over 61.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Spread Fairfield -2.5Actual: Vermont +2.5
FAIR -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
VERM +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Vermont (regulation)
FAIR
no forecast
@ 2.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
VERM
no forecast
@ 1.94

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
FAIR win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
VERM win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: FAIR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VERM leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Fairfield +273.1%1.73
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.62
--+20.7ppLost
Fairfield +1.570.5%1.85
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
+20.5ppLost
Fairfield +376.0%1.62
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.55
---+19.3ppLost
Fairfield +2.574.1%1.68
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.58
-+19.3ppLost
Fairfield +3.576.6%1.58
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
--+18.0ppLost
Fairfield +4.579.3%1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
---+16.5ppLost
Fairfield +7.586.2%1.32
Betano
1.32
----+16.4ppLost
Fairfield +5.581.8%1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
---+16.1ppLost
Fairfield +6.584.1%1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
---+15.6ppLost
Fairfield +8.588.0%1.27
Betano
1.27
----+15.5ppLost
Fairfield +478.8%1.47
Bet365
1.47
----+14.9ppLost
Fairfield +581.4%1.40
Bet365
1.40
----+14.7ppLost
Fairfield +683.7%1.34
Bet365
1.34
----+13.9ppLost
Vermont under 77.579.8%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+8.3ppLost
Vermont under 74.570.9%1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
---+7.8ppLost
Vermont under 75.574.1%1.35
Betano
1.35
----+7.0ppLost
Vermont under 81.588.7%1.12
Bet365
1.12
----+5.6ppWon
Overtime: no95.2%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
---+5.5pp-
Vermont under 80.586.8%1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
---+4.6ppWon
Over 133.571.6%1.31
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.27
---+1.4ppWon
Vermont over 53.593.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01
----+0.5ppWon
Under 166.592.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+0.4ppWon
Over 13471.0%1.30
Bet365
1.30
-----0.4ppWon
Vermont over 55.590.4%1.02
Bet365
1.02
-----0.8ppWon
Over 126.584.2%1.09
Bet365
1.09
-----1.9ppWon
Under 161.586.8%1.05
Bet365
1.05
-----1.9ppWon
Over 131.575.6%1.20
Bet365
1.20
-----2.2ppWon
Vermont over 57.586.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04
-----2.8ppWon
Under 156.579.4%1.12
Bet365
1.12
-----3.6ppWon
Vermont over 59.581.8%1.07
Bet365
1.07
-----5.3ppWon
Vermont over 61.576.2%1.13
Bet365
1.13
-----6.1ppWon
Vermont over 60.579.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10
-----6.4ppWon
Fairfield under 81.576.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11
-----7.9ppWon
Vermont over 62.573.0%1.14
1xBet
1.14
-----8.4ppWon
Fairfield under 80.573.4%1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
----9.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Fairfield wins
0
Vermont wins
DateGameScore
24/11/24Vermont v Fairfield66-67
Fairfieldlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26ASiena61-76
07/03/26ASt. Peters74-55
06/03/26HManhattan71-60
01/03/26HMount St. Mary's47-69
28/02/26HSiena72-58
22/02/26AQuinnipiac85-79
21/02/26HSacred Heart78-68
15/02/26ASt. Peters74-83
08/02/26HMarist63-60
06/02/26ASacred Heart92-87
Vermontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26AIona55-56
14/03/26AUMBC Retrievers59-74
10/03/26HNJIT63-54
07/03/26HBryant University77-57
04/03/26HAlbany Great Danes69-56
27/02/26HUMass Lowell66-64
22/02/26ANJIT70-64
19/02/26AUMBC Retrievers62-75
14/02/26HBryant University90-63
12/02/26ABinghamton73-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fairfield
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 141---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Vermont
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game55.0-55.0
Allowed / game56.0-56.0
Point differential-1.0--1.0
Avg total111.0-111.0
Over 1410%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sacred Heart110100%111.044.0+67.0
2 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
3 Iona110100%56.055.0+1.0
4 Siena1010%75.080.0-5.0
5 Marist1010%62.069.0-7.0
6 St. Peters1010%42.066.0-24.0
7 Manhattan1010%57.085.0-28.0
8 Quinnipiac1010%59.096.0-37.0
9 Rider1010%57.095.0-38.0
10 Canisius1010%57.097.0-40.0
11 Mount St. Mary's1010%52.097.0-45.0
12 Niagara1010%46.091.0-45.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell110100%121.057.0+64.0
2 Bryant University110100%80.075.0+5.0
3 Vermont1010%55.056.0-1.0
4 Binghamton1010%60.086.0-26.0
5 Maine Black Bears1010%56.083.0-27.0
6 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
7 NJIT1010%58.089.0-31.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Fairfield254267
Vermont384179
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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