Fairfield hosts Vermont on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Fairfield at 68% to 32% and projecting a 74-69 win for the home side. Fairfield's season record of 0-1 in all games shows a modest start, with an average of 55.0 points scored and 56.0 allowed, while Vermont's single game record of 0-1 mirrors that, also averaging 55.0 points and 56.0 allowed; both teams sit at league position 228. In recent form, Fairfield has won 3 of its last 5 games, including a 74-55 win over St. Peters away on 6 March 2026 and a 71-60 home victory over Manhattan on 5 March 2026, while Vermont has also won 3 of its last 5, with a 63-54 home win over NJIT on 10 March 2026. Their head-to-head history shows one meeting, with Fairfield winning 67-66 on 24 November 2024. The spread line is -1.5, with a 65% chance that Fairfield covers, and the total line is 141.5 with a 53% probability of the over; the game carries a 5% chance of overtime. The projected total points are 143.1, and the final score is expected to be 74-69.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fairfield winLost
68.1%fair 1.47
Best odds2.05
Implied47.7%
Edge+20.4pp
Vermont winWon
31.9%fair 3.13
Best odds1.92
Implied52.3%
Edge-20.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Fairfield total 71.5 · main lineActual: Fairfield under 71.5
Over 71.5
60.5%
@ 2.07+11.3pp
Under 71.5
39.5%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.67
Fairfield total 75.5Actual: Fairfield under 75.5
Over 75.5
44.9%
@ 2.95+14.1pp
Under 75.5
55.1%
@ 1.31-14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.31
Vermont total 66Actual: Vermont over 66
Over 66
61.1%
Under 66
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vermont total 70 · main lineActual: Vermont over 70
Over 70
45.1%
@ 1.85-4.9pp
Under 70
54.9%
@ 1.85+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Vermont total 74Actual: Vermont over 74
Over 74
30.1%
Under 74
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Fairfield -1.5Actual: Vermont +1.5
FAIR -1.5
65.5%
@ 2.17+21.4pp
VERM +1.5
34.5%
@ 1.86-21.4pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.12
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.91
VERM
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.82
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Spread Fairfield +1.5 · main lineActual: Vermont -1.5
FAIR +1.5
70.5%
@ 1.93+20.5pp
VERM -1.5
29.5%
@ 1.95-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
VERM
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Fairfield +4.5Actual: Vermont -4.5
FAIR +4.5
79.3%
@ 1.52+16.5pp
VERM -4.5
20.7%
@ 2.67-16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
VERM
Bet365
2.67
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
FairfieldVermont
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Fairfield +2
73.1%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Fairfield +1.5
70.5%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
+20.5pp
Lost
Fairfield +3
76.0%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Fairfield +2.5
74.1%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.58
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Fairfield +3.5
76.6%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Fairfield +4.5
79.3%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Lost
Fairfield +7.5
86.2%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Fairfield +5.5
81.8%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Fairfield +6.5
84.1%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Fairfield +8.5
88.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Fairfield +4
78.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
Fairfield +5
81.4%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Lost
Fairfield +6
83.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Vermont under 77.5
79.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Vermont under 74.5
70.9%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Vermont under 75.5
74.1%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Vermont under 81.5
88.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.5pp
-
Vermont under 80.5
86.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Over 133.5
71.6%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Vermont over 53.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 166.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 134
71.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Vermont over 55.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 126.5
84.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
86.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 131.5
75.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Vermont over 57.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Under 156.5
79.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Vermont over 59.5
81.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Vermont over 61.5
76.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Vermont over 60.5
79.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Fairfield under 81.5
76.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Vermont over 62.5
73.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Fairfield under 80.5
73.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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