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Forli vs Mestre Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 83-77
Projected total 159.9
Scheduled
Position#9
Record5-4
FormLLWLW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game77.6
Vs
70%
30%
■ FORL 70%■ MEST 30%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
6.0/10
Above normal
4.3/10
Below normal
Position#13
Record4-5
FormWLWWL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game76.4
ItalySerie A2Round 11· PalaGalassi
Other2026-27
Meetings · Forli v Mestre
22 Nov 2026
FORL v MEST
upcoming
29 Oct 2025
FORL85
MEST80
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Forli host Mestre in the Serie A2. Pythia makes Forli the favourite at 70% and projects 83-77, about 160 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Forli are 5-4 this season (82.3 scored, 77.6 allowed a game), form LLWLW; Mestre are 4-5 this season (75.0 scored, 76.4 allowed a game), form WLWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Forli win
70.1%fair 1.43
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Mestre win
29.9%fair 3.35
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ForliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormForli
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
65-96
65
96
-31
55avg 70
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
85-68
85
68
+17
78avg 70
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
80-73
80
73
+7
70avg 70
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
81-94
81
94
-13
66avg 70
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
93-71
93
71
+22
93avg 70
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
74-79
74
79
-5
66avg 70
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
74avg 70
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
86-71
86
71
+15
no box
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
74-80
74
80
-6
no box
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
W
81-70
81
70
+11
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
20-30
9-22
21-23
27-15
21-8
16-23
21-22
31-18
16-19
18-19
15-17
19-25
21-24
23-24
18-21
25-11
30-33
13-15
25-12
20-20
20-23
21-17
13-19
19-31
22-26
23-23
23-12
28-24
15-14
19-14
24-19
20-23
9-15
23-29
22-13
21-24
15-21
21-12
24-13
160.0Avg total
80.6Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.377.6159.9+4.856%
Season at home (5)85.475.4160.8+10.080%
Season away (4)78.580.2158.8-1.825%
Last 10 (10)80.679.4160.0+1.250%
Last 5 (5)80.478.4158.8+2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)74.984.7159.6-9.825%
vs Similar (10)82.980.3163.2+2.650%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)81.272.8154.0+8.575%
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MestreItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMestre
Date
Competition
JuVi Cremona
#12
L
82-83
82
83
-1
68avg 66
A26/04
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
79-57
79
57
+22
72avg 66
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
49-88
49
88
-39
15avg 66
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
74-87
74
87
-13
60avg 66
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
76-91
76
91
-15
66avg 66
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
93-71
93
71
+22
98avg 66
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
L
70-77
70
77
-7
62avg 66
A25/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
W
70-63
70
63
+7
no box
H31/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#10
W
85-73
85
73
+12
no box
A07/11
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
L
79-81
79
81
-2
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
26-29
20-16
12-17
23-15
19-26
21-11
16-5
9-19
11-22
12-26
17-21
27-25
21-25
15-19
11-18
16-20
23-26
17-29
20-16
24-12
21-26
26-8
22-25
17-26
18-15
22-16
13-20
18-24
18-15
13-16
21-8
22-22
30-18
12-19
21-14
26-15
18-23
22-23
13-20
152.8Avg total
75.7Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)75.076.4151.4-1.444%
Season at home (5)73.078.0151.0-5.040%
Season away (4)77.574.5152.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)75.777.1152.8-1.440%
Last 5 (5)79.473.0152.4+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)74.683.3157.9-8.629%
vs Similar (14)78.477.9156.3+0.443%
vs Weaker (2)83.574.5158.0+9.050%
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148
Over 148
76.5%
Under 148
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 153
Over 153
65.9%
Under 153
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158
Over 158
53.9%
Under 158
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Forli total 74.5
Over 74.5
79.6%
Under 74.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forli total 78.5
Over 78.5
66.8%
Under 78.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forli total 82.5
Over 82.5
51.6%
Under 82.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mestre total 70.5
Over 70.5
73.1%
Under 70.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mestre total 74.5
Over 74.5
58.8%
Under 74.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mestre total 78.5
Over 78.5
43.5%
Under 78.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Forli -3
FORL -3
62.2%
MEST +3
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
FORL
No market prices yet.
MEST
No market prices yet.
Spread Forli 0
FORL 0
70.1%
MEST 0
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
FORL
No market prices yet.
MEST
No market prices yet.
Spread Forli +3
FORL +3
77.7%
MEST -3
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
FORL
No market prices yet.
MEST
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: +0.2+0.2
ForliMestre
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ForliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
35-51
35
51
-16
H26/04
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
48-23
48
23
+25
A26/09
Serie A2
Cento
#18
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H03/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A11/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#4
W
55-44
55
44
+11
H18/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A21/10
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
41-57
41
57
-16
H25/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H01/11
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A07/11
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H11/11
Serie A2
83.9Avg total
41.4Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.442.883.2-2.427%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.943.285.1-1.333%-
Last 30 away (15)38.942.581.4-3.520%-
Last 10 (10)41.442.583.9-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)37.844.282.0-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.344.082.3-5.712%-
vs Similar (10)42.144.086.1-1.930%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)44.535.279.8+9.275%-
This opponent (Mestre) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MestreLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
JuVi Cremona
#12
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A26/04
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A27/09
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
20-41
20
41
-21
H03/10
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H10/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A18/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H21/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A25/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H31/10
Serie A2
Pesaro
#10
W
52-40
52
40
+12
A07/11
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H11/11
Serie A2
83.5Avg total
41.1Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.141.581.6-1.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.140.982.1+0.256%-
Last 30 away (14)38.942.181.0-3.336%-
Last 10 (10)41.142.483.5-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)42.439.281.6+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)37.442.880.2-5.429%-
vs Similar (14)41.740.482.1+1.457%-
vs Weaker (2)47.040.587.5+6.5100%-
This opponent (Forli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Forlitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Forli: 75.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.118.7
53.3%
51.2%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.77.6
35.0%
34.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws22.914.9
65.1%
71.0%14.9
They take 56.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mestretheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mestre: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.315.8
44.8%
51.2%31.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.2
31.1%
34.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.714.6
74.1%
71.0%14.6
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Forli
WLWLLWLWWL
Mestre
LWWLWLLLWL
#9
League position
#13
-1.3
Net rating
-7.9
98.1
Offensive rating
90.1
99.4
Defensive rating
98.0
53.0%
Effective FG%
45.6%
54.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
13.6%
Turnover %
9.7%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.30
35.0%
3-point %
31.1%
51.0%
Assist %
43.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence98.1 · 90.1Defence99.4 · 98.0Shooting53.0% · 45.6%3-point %35.0% · 31.1%Ball care13.6% · 9.7%Free throws0.40 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Forli   ■ Mestre
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Forli wins
0
Mestre wins
DateGameScore
10/01/26Mestre v Forli55-83
29/10/25Forli v Mestre85-80
Forlilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HRimini81-70
07/11/26ABrindisi74-80
01/11/26HRuvo Di Puglia86-71
25/10/26HLibertas Livorno87-92
21/10/26AVigevano74-79
18/10/26HSebastiani Rieti93-71
11/10/26AAvellino Basket81-94
03/10/26HCento80-73
26/09/26ACividale85-68
26/04/26HFortitudo Bologna65-96
Mestrelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HCividale79-81
07/11/26APesaro85-73
31/10/26HBrindisi70-63
25/10/26ACaserta70-77
21/10/26HRuvo Di Puglia93-71
18/10/26ARimini76-91
10/10/26HSassari74-87
03/10/26HLibertas Livorno49-88
27/09/26ABasket Torino79-57
26/04/26AJuVi Cremona82-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Forli
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW56%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %56%80%25%
Points / game82.385.478.5
Allowed / game77.675.480.2
Point differential+4.8+10.0-1.8
Avg total159.9160.8158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mestre
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL44%
HomeLLWWL40%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %44%40%50%
Points / game75.073.077.5
Allowed / game76.478.074.5
Point differential-1.4-5.0+3.0
Avg total151.4151.0152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%20%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno98189%81.269.7+11.6
2 Avellino Basket98189%82.274.7+7.6
3 Fortitudo Bologna97278%79.474.3+5.1
4 Sebastiani Rieti97278%74.872.1+2.7
5 Rimini96367%80.471.8+8.7
6 Brindisi96367%77.473.9+3.6
7 Basket Torino85362%72.872.2+0.5
8 Pistoia106460%77.669.1+8.5
9 Forli95456%82.377.6+4.8
10 Pesaro95456%81.079.9+1.1
11 Sassari95456%77.276.4+0.8
12 Cividale95456%71.874.1-2.3
13 Mestre94544%75.076.4-1.4
14 Vigevano93633%76.381.8-5.4
15 Caserta82625%78.182.6-4.5
16 JuVi Cremona92722%75.377.9-2.6
17 Ruvo Di Puglia92722%74.481.7-7.2
18 Cento92722%72.882.2-9.4
19 Montecatini91811%68.182.3-14.2
20 Urania Milano101910%74.682.7-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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