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Franca vs Caxias do Sul Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Projected 85-67
Projected total 152.1
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game71.6
Franca
Brazil
Vs
93%
■ FRAN 93%■ CAXI 7%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.5/10
Below normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Caxias do Sul
Brazil
Position#18
Record0-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game64.7
Allowed / game79.6
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Pedrocao
Other2026-27
Meetings · Franca v Caxias do Sul
18 Nov 2026
FRAN v CAXI
upcoming
28 Oct 2025
FRAN73
CAXI75
31 Mar 2025
FRAN117
CAXI57
24 Nov 2023
FRAN89
CAXI60
03 Dec 2022
FRAN84
CAXI83
16 Jan 2022
FRAN87
CAXI91
05 Nov 2021
FRAN84
CAXI75
15 Dec 2020
FRAN84
CAXI81
30 Jan 2018
FRAN82
CAXI74
29 Nov 2016
FRAN85
CAXI66
28 Nov 2015
FRAN86
CAXI82
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Franca faces Caxias do Sul on 18 November 2026 in the NBB, with the model rating Franca as the clear favourite at 93% due to their 5-3 record, 78.9 points per game and 71.6 allowed, and a 3-1 home record of 88.5 points per game. Caxias do Sul struggles with a 0-7 record, 64.7 points per game and 79.6 allowed, and a 0-3 road record of 64.7 points per game and 84.0 allowed. Franca's last five games include wins over Botafogo, Flamengo and Cruzeiro, while Caxias do Sul has lost its last five, including defeats to Pato, Brasilia and Pinheiros. Historically Franca has dominated the rivalry with 8 of 10 meetings won, most recently 93-66 on 21 January 2026. The model projects a 85-67 score, 152.1 total points, and a 93% chance of a Franca win; the 2% overtime probability reflects the low likelihood of an extended game. The game is set to be a decisive showcase of Franca's offensive potency against a Caxias do Sul side that has yet to secure a win this season.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Franca win
93.1%fair 1.07
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Caxias do Sul win
6.9%fair 14.57
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FrancaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFranca
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
92-94
92
94
-2
92avg 82
A04/06
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
85-76
85
76
+9
79avg 82
H07/06
NBB
Sao Jose
#13
W
90-59
90
59
+31
70avg 82
H19/10
NBB
Mogi
#2
W
90-74
90
74
+16
81avg 82
H21/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#12
L
48-78
48
78
-30
30avg 82
A26/10
NBB
Paulistano
#9
L
62-65
62
65
-3
47avg 82
A28/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
76-87
76
87
-11
no box
H03/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#8
W
98-77
98
77
+21
no box
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
A10/11
NBB
Botafogo
#14
W
83-60
83
60
+23
no box
A12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-19
19-28
32-27
17-20
18-24
32-22
10-8
25-22
17-15
25-17
23-12
25-15
24-18
24-31
19-9
23-16
14-29
9-13
10-19
15-17
14-20
12-16
21-22
15-7
25-19
15-25
21-24
15-19
23-14
22-21
27-17
26-25
19-17
28-21
17-12
20-23
21-16
14-19
24-9
24-16
155.1Avg total
80.8Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.971.6150.5+7.262%
Season at home (4)88.574.2162.8+14.275%
Season away (4)69.269.0138.2+0.250%
Last 10 (10)80.874.3155.1+6.560%
Last 5 (5)80.672.4153.0+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)76.087.0163.0-11.00%
vs Similar (8)83.277.8161.0+5.575%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)82.073.4155.4+8.571%
This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Caxias do SulBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSul
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#5
L
70-78
70
78
-8
59avg 66
H25/04
NBB
Brasilia
#5
W
66-63
66
63
+3
52avg 66
H27/04
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
70-71
70
71
-1
62avg 66
A30/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#8
L
61-72
61
72
-11
45avg 66
H17/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
66-78
66
78
-12
52avg 66
H20/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
L
82-84
82
84
-2
76avg 66
A28/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
59-77
59
77
-18
no box
A30/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
53-91
53
91
-38
no box
A02/11
NBB
Brasilia
#7
L
55-76
55
76
-21
no box
H07/11
NBB
Pato
#15
L
77-79
77
79
-2
no box
H12/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
14-26
20-17
13-15
20-20
8-11
20-17
18-15
24-15
9-22
18-19
19-15
20-21
19-12
9-19
13-20
20-25
13-18
10-18
23-17
24-22
16-14
21-25
21-23
15-17
12-18
9-28
23-14
6-25
15-20
14-23
18-23
12-22
11-26
19-23
13-5
21-15
19-20
22-15
15-29
142.8Avg total
65.9Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)64.779.6144.3-14.90%
Season at home (4)64.876.2141.0-11.50%
Season away (3)64.784.0148.7-19.30%
Last 10 (10)65.976.9142.8-11.010%
Last 5 (5)65.281.4146.6-16.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)68.177.5145.6-9.516%
vs Similar (5)76.675.6152.2+1.040%
vs Weaker (6)82.075.0157.0+7.067%
This opponent (Franca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5
Over 152.5
48.9%
Under 152.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157.5
Over 157.5
36.8%
Under 157.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
25.9%
Under 162.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Franca total 76.5
Over 76.5
79.7%
Under 76.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Franca total 80.5
Over 80.5
66.5%
Under 80.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Franca total 84.5
Over 84.5
50.8%
Under 84.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caxias do Sul total 73.5
Over 73.5
27.0%
Under 73.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caxias do Sul total 77.5
Over 77.5
15.8%
Under 77.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caxias do Sul total 81.5
Over 81.5
8.4%
Under 81.5
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Franca -3
FRAN -3
90.4%
CAXI +3
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
FRAN
No market prices yet.
CAXI
No market prices yet.
Spread Franca 0
FRAN 0
93.1%
CAXI 0
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
FRAN
No market prices yet.
CAXI
No market prices yet.
Spread Franca +3
FRAN +3
95.5%
CAXI -3
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
FRAN
No market prices yet.
CAXI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +0.0+0.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: +0.0+0.0
FrancaCaxias do Sul
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FrancaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A04/06
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H07/06
NBB
Sao Jose
#13
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H19/10
NBB
Mogi
#2
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H21/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#12
L
23-42
23
42
-19
A26/10
NBB
Paulistano
#9
L
26-36
26
36
-10
A28/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H03/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#8
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H05/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A10/11
NBB
Botafogo
#14
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A12/11
NBB
80.3Avg total
39.9Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.638.881.4+3.953%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.139.183.3+5.060%-
Last 30 away (15)41.138.479.5+2.747%-
Last 10 (10)39.940.480.3-0.540%-
Last 5 (5)38.637.676.2+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)40.044.084.0-4.00%-
vs Similar (8)45.042.287.2+2.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)41.937.279.0+4.757%-
This opponent (Caxias do Sul) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Caxias do SulLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#5
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H25/04
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H27/04
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A30/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#8
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H17/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H20/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A28/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A30/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
21-45
21
45
-24
A02/11
NBB
Brasilia
#7
L
23-48
23
48
-25
H07/11
NBB
Pato
#15
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H12/11
NBB
71.0Avg total
32.1Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.437.972.4-3.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)33.738.872.5-5.233%-
Last 30 away (12)35.636.672.2-1.058%-
Last 10 (10)32.138.971.0-6.830%-
Last 5 (5)30.239.870.0-9.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)33.137.870.9-4.747%-
vs Similar (5)34.038.872.8-4.820%-
vs Weaker (6)39.037.576.5+1.550%-
This opponent (Franca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Francatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Franca: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.518.2
56.0%
49.8%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.77.5
30.4%
31.6%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.315.0
77.7%
71.3%15.0
They take 57.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Caxias do Sultheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caxias do Sul: 70.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.814.0
47.0%
49.8%28.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.410.4
34.2%
31.6%31.2
🏀 Free throws15.411.1
72.1%
71.3%11.1
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Franca
WWWLLLWWWL
Caxias do Sul
LLLLLLLLWL
#6
League position
#18
+2.2
Net rating
-4.0
92.3
Offensive rating
88.6
90.1
Defensive rating
92.7
51.5%
Effective FG%
49.2%
48.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
15.1%
Turnover %
15.1%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.26
30.4%
3-point %
34.2%
58.0%
Assist %
63.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence92.3 · 88.6Defence90.1 · 92.7Shooting51.5% · 49.2%3-point %30.4% · 34.2%Ball care15.1% · 15.1%Free throws0.34 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 10%
■ Franca   ■ Caxias do Sul
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Franca wins
2
Caxias do Sul wins
DateGameScore
21/01/26Caxias do Sul v Franca66-93
28/10/25Franca v Caxias do Sul73-75
31/03/25Franca v Caxias do Sul117-57
05/12/24Caxias do Sul v Franca76-82
27/03/24Caxias do Sul v Franca79-89
24/11/23Franca v Caxias do Sul89-60
25/03/23Caxias do Sul v Franca76-89
03/12/22Franca v Caxias do Sul84-83
03/02/22Caxias do Sul v Franca68-83
16/01/22Franca v Caxias do Sul87-91 OT
Francalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ABotafogo83-60
10/11/26AFlamengo84-73
05/11/26HCruzeiro98-77
03/11/26HMinas76-87
28/10/26APaulistano62-65
26/10/26ACorinthians Paulista48-78
21/10/26HMogi90-74
19/10/26HSao Jose90-59
07/06/26HPinheiros85-76
04/06/26APinheiros92-94
Caxias do Sullast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HPato77-79
07/11/26HBrasilia55-76
02/11/26APinheiros53-91
30/10/26AFlamengo59-77
28/10/26ABotafogo82-84
20/10/26HMinas66-78
17/10/26HCruzeiro61-72
30/04/26ABrasilia70-71
27/04/26HBrasilia66-63
25/04/26HBrasilia70-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Franca
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW62%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game78.988.569.2
Allowed / game71.674.269.0
Point differential+7.2+14.2+0.2
Avg total150.5162.8138.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Caxias do Sul
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game64.764.864.7
Allowed / game79.676.284.0
Point differential-14.9-11.5-19.3
Avg total144.3141.0148.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas770100%86.365.7+20.6
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
8 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
9 Paulistano63350%70.373.0-2.7
10 Uniao Corinthians63350%73.276.8-3.7
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Corinthians Paulista62433%79.379.8-0.5
13 Sao Jose62433%80.584.5-4.0
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato72529%74.183.6-9.4
16 Osasco51420%78.687.4-8.8
17 Cearense61517%66.084.8-18.8
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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