Galitos Barreiro host Sampaense on 14 November 2026 in the Proliga, with the Pythia model designating the home side as the clear favourite thanks to a 79% win probability and a projected 86-77 score that reflects their strong offensive output and solid defence; the model rates them highly because they have a 4-2 record, average 74.3 points per game while allowing 73.0, and sit sixth in the league, whereas Sampaense, also 4-2 but with a higher points per game average of 85.7 and 79.2 points allowed, sit fourth. Galitos Barreiro are undefeated at home, 3-0 with an 83.3 points per game average and 73.7 points allowed, and have won four of their last five games, including a 86-77 victory over Santo Andre on 7 November and a 74-68 win away at CB Queluz on 31 October; Sampaense have a 0-2 road record, 74.5 points per game and 79.5 points allowed, and although they have won four of their last five games, all were at home, such as a 105-99 win over Academica on 30 October. The head-to-head record shows no prior meetings, so the first clash will set the tone. Pythia projects a 79% chance for Galitos Barreiro to win and a 21% chance for Sampaense, with a 67% probability that Galitos Barreiro will cover the -4.5 spread and a 63% chance of the game exceeding the 158.0 total; the overtime probability sits at 4%. The game will likely see Galitos Barreiro maintain their home dominance and finish with the projected 86-77 score.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 74.3 | 73.0 | 147.3 | +1.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 83.3 | 73.7 | 157.0 | +9.7 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 65.3 | 72.3 | 137.7 | -7.0 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.8 | 81.6 | 157.4 | -5.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.8 | 72.8 | 151.6 | +6.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 80.0 | 92.1 | 172.2 | -12.1 | 17% |
| vs Similar (3) | 85.7 | 89.3 | 175.0 | -3.7 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 77.0 | 71.8 | 148.8 | +5.2 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 85.7 | 79.2 | 164.8 | +6.5 | 67% |
| Season at home (4) | 91.2 | 79.0 | 170.2 | +12.2 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 74.5 | 79.5 | 154.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 84.1 | 79.6 | 163.7 | +4.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.4 | 77.0 | 163.4 | +9.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 67.9 | 80.6 | 148.4 | -12.7 | 25% |
| vs Similar (6) | 83.2 | 79.8 | 163.0 | +3.3 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 74.1 | 68.6 | 142.8 | +5.5 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.9 | 44.2 | 83.1 | -5.3 | 20% | 73% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 40.8 | 46.0 | 86.8 | -5.2 | 27% | 87% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.0 | 42.3 | 79.3 | -5.3 | 13% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 39.8 | 77.1 | -2.5 | 30% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.0 | 36.6 | 75.6 | +2.4 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 39.1 | 45.4 | 84.5 | -6.3 | 17% | 83% |
| vs Similar (3) | 36.3 | 46.0 | 82.3 | -9.7 | 0% | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 39.8 | 35.5 | 75.2 | +4.2 | 50% | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 78.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 37.7 | 73.9 | -1.5 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.2 | 38.5 | 79.7 | +2.7 | 67% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 31.2 | 36.9 | 68.1 | -5.7 | 33% | 7% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.6 | 38.5 | 79.1 | +2.1 | 60% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 43.2 | 38.4 | 81.6 | +4.8 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 32.6 | 39.7 | 72.3 | -7.1 | 25% | 19% |
| vs Similar (6) | 42.7 | 40.7 | 83.3 | +2.0 | 67% | 67% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 38.5 | 31.5 | 70.0 | +7.0 | 88% | 25% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galitos Barreiro over 80.5 | 72.3% | 1.74 | 1.83 | 1.65 | - | - | - | +21.1pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 81 | 71.3% | 1.70 | 1.70 | - | - | - | - | +20.7pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 79.5 | 75.5% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +19.7pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 78.5 | 78.5% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +19.5pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 77.5 | 81.3% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +18.9pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro (regulation) | 76.8% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +18.5pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 76.5 | 83.8% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +18.2pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro over 75.5 | 86.1% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +17.3pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro -3.5 | 70.5% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro -2.5 | 73.3% | 1.53 | 1.53 | - | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro win | 79.0% | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.40 | +13.0pp | Won |
| Galitos Barreiro +1.5 | 80.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +12.4pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 96.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Won |
| Sampaense over 71.5 | 71.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.4 | 21.5 | 52.5% | 43.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.4 | 6.9 | 30.6% | 20.7 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.7 | 13.9 | 67.3% | 13.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.8 | 21.2 | 52.5% | 42.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 21.4 | 7.8 | 30.6% | 23.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.6 | 14.6 | 67.3% | 14.6 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Santo Andre | 86-77 |
| 31/10/26 | A | CB Queluz | 74-68 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Academica | 88-80 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Illiabum | 70-75 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Benfica Lisboa B | 76-64 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Sangalhos | 52-74 |
| 25/04/26 | A | CA Queluz | 74-105 |
| 18/04/26 | H | Ovarense | 82-83 |
| 11/04/26 | A | FC Porto | 74-82 |
| 04/04/26 | H | Benfica | 82-108 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | CB Queluz | 76-67 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Academica | 105-99 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Illiabum | 99-70 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Benfica Lisboa B | 67-69 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Sangalhos | 85-80 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Vasco Da Gama | 82-90 |
| 02/05/26 | H | Academica | 85-81 |
| 25/04/26 | A | Galomar | 78-88 |
| 19/04/26 | H | Santo Andre | 87-80 |
| 04/04/26 | A | Sangalhos | 77-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 67% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 74.3 | 83.3 | 65.3 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 73.7 | 72.3 |
| Point differential | +1.3 | +9.7 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 147.3 | 157.0 | 137.7 |
| Over 157.5 | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 67% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 91.2 | 74.5 |
| Allowed / game | 79.2 | 79.0 | 79.5 |
| Point differential | +6.5 | +12.2 | -5.0 |
| Avg total | 164.8 | 170.2 | 154.0 |
| Over 157.5 | 67% | 75% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 25% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 75.0 | 60.5 | +14.5 | |
| 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 78.9 | 73.6 | +5.3 | |
| 3 | Santo Andre | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 78.1 | 74.4 | +3.7 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 81.3 | 72.3 | +9.0 | |
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 85.7 | 79.2 | +6.5 | |
| 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 74.3 | 73.0 | +1.3 | |
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 77.2 | 69.0 | +8.2 | |
| 8 | Maia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 86.8 | 88.2 | -1.4 |
| 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 74.1 | 74.4 | -0.3 | |
| 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 72.1 | 72.6 | -0.4 | |
| 11 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 85.8 | 88.8 | -3.0 | |
| 12 | Barcelos | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 68.5 | 75.8 | -7.3 |
| 13 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 84.7 | 88.4 | -3.7 | |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 75.0 | 83.9 | -8.9 | |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 67.7 | 80.7 | -13.0 | |
| 16 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 79.3 | 88.0 | -8.7 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 21 | 40 | 19 | 102 | |
| 12 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 61 |
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