George Mason will host UMKC on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming George Mason the clear favourite at 99% to win versus 1% for UMKC, a rating driven by George Mason's undefeated 2-0 record, 75.0 points scored and 52.5 allowed per game, and their 58th league position. Both teams have played only a handful of games this season, George Mason's 2-0 record contrasting with UMKC's 2-2 record, 77.2 points scored and 78.2 allowed per game, and a 224th league position. George Mason has won both of its home games, averaging 75.0 points and conceding 52.5, while UMKC's road record is 1-2, 69.7 points scored and 73.3 allowed. In recent form George Mason has won three of its last five games, including a 68-51 win over Coppin State and a 82-54 victory over UMBC, whereas UMKC has won two of its last five, with a 87-65 win over Florida A&M and a 100-93 win over Southern Illinois. The last head-to-head meeting is not recorded. Pythia projects a 87-60 score for George Mason, a total of 146.3 points, a -14.5 spread with an 86% chance of covering, a 141.0 total with a 63% over probability, and no overtime likelihood. The game ends with George Mason's 68-51 triumph over Coppin State as a concrete recent result.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
George Mason winWon
96.9%fair 1.03
Best odds1.06
Implied91.1%
Edge+5.8pp
UMKC winLost
3.1%fair 31.95
Best odds11.00
Implied8.9%
Edge-5.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (George Mason) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136Actual: Over 136
Over 136
70.7%
@ 1.47+7.3pp
Under 136
29.3%
@ 2.55-7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 141 · main lineActual: Over 141
Over 141
58.9%
@ 1.92+8.3pp
Under 141
41.1%
@ 1.93-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 146Actual: Under 146
Over 146
46.3%
@ 2.65+11.3pp
Under 146
53.7%
@ 1.43-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
George Mason total 74Actual: George Mason over 74
Over 74
83.8%
Under 74
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
George Mason total 78 · main lineActual: George Mason under 78
Over 78
71.5%
@ 1.86+21.5pp
Under 78
28.5%
@ 1.88-21.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
George Mason total 82Actual: George Mason under 82
Over 82
55.8%
Under 82
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMKC total 59Actual: UMKC over 59
Over 59
58.9%
Under 59
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMKC total 63 · main lineActual: UMKC over 63
Over 63
42.3%
@ 1.86-7.4pp
Under 63
57.7%
@ 1.85+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
UMKC total 67Actual: UMKC over 67
Over 67
27.1%
Under 67
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread George Mason -19Actual: UMKC +19
GEOR -19
61.5%
@ 2.62+26.0pp
UMKC +19
38.5%
@ 1.44-26.0pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Bet365
2.62
UMKC
Bet365
1.44
Spread George Mason -16 · main lineActual: UMKC +16
GEOR -16
71.4%
@ 2.00+22.1pp
UMKC +16
28.6%
@ 1.89-22.1pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
UMKC
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.71
Spread George Mason -13Actual: UMKC +13
GEOR -13
79.8%
@ 1.64+18.9pp
UMKC +13
20.2%
@ 2.44-18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.57
UMKC
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.12
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
George MasonUMKC
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
George MasonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Richmond Spiders
#231
L
29-49
29
49
-20
A11/02
NCAA
George Washington
#160
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A14/02
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H19/02
NCAA
Saint Josephs Hawks
#75
L
25-44
25
44
-19
A26/02
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H28/02
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A04/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H12/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#211
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H02/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#318
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H07/11
NCAA
68.5Avg total
34.8Scored
33.7Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 66.5
Last 30 (30)
34.9
34.0
68.9
+0.8
50%
60%
Last 30 at home (18)
35.8
31.8
67.6
+3.9
67%
56%
Last 30 away (12)
33.5
37.3
70.8
-3.8
25%
67%
Last 10 (10)
34.8
33.7
68.5
+1.1
50%
60%
Last 5 (5)
37.8
28.4
66.2
+9.4
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
43.0
34.0
77.0
+9.0
100%
100%
vs Similar (17)
32.5
34.8
67.2
-2.3
35%
53%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)
37.6
33.0
70.6
+4.6
67%
67%
This opponent (UMKC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (George Mason) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: George Mason win
GEOR win
no forecast
@ 1.25
UMKC win
no forecast
@ 4.00
2nd half Spread George Mason -6.5 · main lineActual: UMKC +6.5
GEOR -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
UMKC +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: George Mason (regulation)
GEOR
no forecast
@ 1.28
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
UMKC
no forecast
@ 3.95
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
George Mason -12
82.2%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
George Mason -11.5
82.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
George Mason -16
71.4%
1.91
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
SBO
1.85
+22.1pp
Lost
George Mason -11
84.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
George Mason over 78
71.5%
1.84
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
George Mason -10.5
84.7%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
George Mason over 76.5
75.8%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.53
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
George Mason -10
86.4%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
George Mason -15.5
72.3%
1.82
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.81
+20.3pp
Lost
George Mason -12.5
80.3%
1.66
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
-
+20.1pp
Lost
George Mason -9.5
86.6%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
George Mason -15
74.4%
1.82
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
+20.0pp
Lost
George Mason over 77.5
72.5%
1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+19.9pp
Lost
George Mason -9
88.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Lost
George Mason -13
79.8%
1.60
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.57
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
George Mason -8.5
88.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
George Mason -14
77.2%
1.73
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.64
+18.7pp
Lost
George Mason over 74.5
81.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
George Mason -14.5
75.1%
1.77
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.73
+18.6pp
Lost
George Mason over 75.5
78.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
George Mason -8
89.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Push
George Mason -7.5
89.9%
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
George Mason -13.5
77.8%
1.70
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.68
+17.4pp
Lost
George Mason over 73.5
84.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
George Mason -7
91.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
George Mason -6.5
91.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
George Mason over 71.5
88.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
George Mason over 72.5
86.5%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
George Mason -4.5
93.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
George Mason over 68.5
93.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
George Mason (regulation)
96.3%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
George Mason over 70.5
90.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
George Mason over 69.5
92.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
George Mason over 67.5
94.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
George Mason over 66.5
95.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
George Mason over 64.5
97.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
George Mason over 65.5
96.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
George Mason over 63.5
97.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
George Mason over 62.5
98.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Over 136
70.7%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
UMKC under 66.5
70.5%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
George Mason over 61.5
98.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 135
72.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 135.5
71.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
George Mason over 60.5
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Over 133.5
75.4%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
73.4%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
George Mason +6.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Over 134
74.9%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 133
76.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
George Mason win
96.9%
1.05
BetVictor
1.06
Pinnacle
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+5.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.2%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
George Mason over 58.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
UMKC under 68.5
77.0%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
George Mason over 59.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
UMKC under 67.5
73.8%
1.33
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Over 132.5
77.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
UMKC under 78.5
95.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
UMKC under 70.5
82.5%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
UMKC under 76.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
UMKC under 71.5
84.9%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
UMKC under 80.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
UMKC under 72.5
87.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
UMKC under 74.5
90.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
UMKC under 73.5
89.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
UMKC over 47.5
91.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
UMKC over 46.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
UMKC over 48.5
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
UMKC over 49.5
87.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
George Mason under 95.5
88.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
UMKC over 50.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
UMKC over 52.5
80.8%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
UMKC over 51.5
83.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
UMKC over 53.5
77.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
UMKC over 55.5
71.5%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
George Mason under 93.5
84.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
UMKC +34.5
85.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
UMKC over 54.5
74.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
George Mason under 91.5
79.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
George Mason under 89.5
73.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
UMKC +29.5
74.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.