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Georgia State vs Norfolk State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 82-67
Projected total 149.5
Scheduled
Position#299
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game85.8
Allowed / game77.2
Georgia State
USA
Vs
90%
■ GEOR 90%■ NORF 10%
Pythia win probability
Norfolk State
USA
Position#235
Record2-2
FormLWWLL
Points / game69.8
Allowed / game72.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Georgia State will host Norfolk State in an NCAA contest on 15 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Georgia State as the clear favourite at 90% versus 10% for Norfolk State, a reflection of Georgia State's 1-3 record and 85.8 points per game against 77.2 allowed, while Norfolk State's 2-2 record yields 69.8 points per game and 72.8 allowed; the model's confidence is further reinforced by Georgia State's 1-1 home record, 92.0 points per game and 68.5 allowed, contrasted with Norfolk State's 0-1 road record, 73.0 points per game and 104.0 allowed. Recent form shows Georgia State's last five games included a narrow 92-95 loss to Fresno State away, a decisive 111-61 home win over Andrew Fighting Tigers, and a 67-77 defeat to Charlotte away, whereas Norfolk State's recent five included a 60-71 loss to Old Dominion at home, a 73-104 defeat to William & Mary away, and a 78-71 home victory over Randolph. The teams have met once before, though the prior meeting is not detailed here. Pythia projects a 82-67 score, 149.5 total points, a -9.0 home line with a 71% chance of covering, a 148.5 total line with a 52% over probability, and a 2% overtime likelihood, underscoring Georgia State's dominance in the model's assessment.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Georgia State win
90.4%fair 1.11
Best odds1.16
Implied84.3%
Edge+6.2pp
Norfolk State win
9.6%fair 10.45
Best odds6.50
Implied15.7%
Edge-6.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Georgia StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
55-78
55
78
-23
A14/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H20/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H21/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H25/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
L
73-81
73
81
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
75-84
75
84
-9
A03/03
NCAA
Bowling Green
#72
L
73-76
73
76
-3
H02/11
NCAA
Charlotte
#226
L
67-77
67
77
-10
A06/11
NCAA
Andrew Fighting Tigers
#486
W
111-61
111
61
+50
H07/11
NCAA
Fresno State
#143
L
92-95 OT
92
95
-3
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-36
29-42
37-27
29-37
26-40
39-40
28-30
43-46
42-36
31-45
38-36
37-48
34-34
39-42
33-35
34-42
48-32
63-29
38-39
40-39
152.0Avg total
74.8Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)85.877.2163.0+8.525%
Season at home (2)92.068.5160.5+23.550%
Season away (2)79.586.0165.5-6.50%
Last 10 (10)74.877.2152.0-2.420%
Last 5 (5)83.678.6162.2+5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)70.274.6144.8-4.537%
vs Similar (6)70.379.3149.7-9.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)86.575.2161.8+11.250%
This opponent (Norfolk State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Norfolk StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A17/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
90-71
90
71
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
75-69
75
69
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
L
84-90
84
90
-6
A02/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H06/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
82-88
82
88
-6
H12/03
NCAA
Regent University
#428
W
68-45
68
45
+23
H03/11
NCAA
Randolph
#350
W
78-71
78
71
+7
H05/11
NCAA
William & Mary
#159
L
73-104
73
104
-31
A08/11
NCAA
Old Dominion
#59
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-28
39-38
44-35
46-36
42-29
33-40
29-45
55-45
39-39
37-45
30-39
52-49
35-15
33-30
35-34
43-37
35-54
38-50
24-36
36-35
151.5Avg total
75.6Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)69.872.8142.5-3.050%
Season at home (3)68.762.3131.0+6.367%
Season away (1)73.0104.0177.0-31.00%
Last 10 (10)75.675.9151.5-0.350%
Last 5 (5)72.275.8148.0-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)66.789.0155.7-22.30%
vs Similar (4)67.280.0147.2-12.80%
vs Weaker (19)80.170.8150.9+9.368%
This opponent (Georgia State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5
Over 143.5
64.2%
@ 1.60+4.8pp
Under 143.5
35.8%
@ 2.40-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 148.5 · main line
Over 148.5
52.2%
@ 2.05+5.2pp
Under 148.5
47.8%
@ 1.83-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.96
SBO
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.74
Over/Under 153.5
Over 153.5
40.0%
@ 2.75+6.5pp
Under 153.5
60.0%
@ 1.68-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38

📊 3. Team Totals

Georgia State total 76.5
Over 76.5
72.1%
@ 1.52+11.0pp
Under 76.5
27.9%
@ 2.50-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
Georgia State total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
57.2%
@ 2.05+7.2pp
Under 80.5
42.8%
@ 1.87-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Georgia State total 84.5
Over 84.5
41.1%
@ 3.00+10.6pp
Under 84.5
58.9%
@ 1.35-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.29
Norfolk State total 65
Over 65
58.7%
Under 65
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norfolk State total 69 · main line
Over 69
42.3%
@ 1.85-7.7pp
Under 69
57.7%
@ 1.85+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Norfolk State total 73
Over 73
27.3%
Under 73
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Georgia State -14.5
GEOR -14.5
51.8%
@ 2.40+12.7pp
NORF +14.5
48.2%
@ 1.54-12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.35
NORF
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
Spread Georgia State -11.5 · main line
GEOR -11.5
62.3%
@ 1.93+12.8pp
NORF +11.5
37.7%
@ 1.95-12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.85
NORF
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
Spread Georgia State -8.5
GEOR -8.5
72.1%
@ 1.81+12.6pp
NORF +8.5
27.9%
@ 2.35-12.6pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Marathon Be
1.81
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
NORF
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Marathon Be
1.92

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -1.0-1.02nd half2nd half: -2.6-2.62nd half: +0.7+0.7
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -1.0-1.02nd half2nd half: -2.6-2.62nd half: +0.7+0.7
Georgia StateNorfolk State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Georgia StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Old Dominion
#300
L
26-36
26
36
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H20/02
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
26-40
26
40
-14
H21/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H25/02
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A03/03
NCAA
Bowling Green
#72
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H02/11
NCAA
Charlotte
#226
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A06/11
NCAA
Andrew Fighting Tigers
#486
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H07/11
NCAA
Fresno State
#143
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A11/11
NCAA
69.5Avg total
35.0Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)34.635.770.2-1.137%40%
Last 30 at home (15)35.733.168.9+2.653%33%
Last 30 away (15)33.438.271.6-4.820%47%
Last 10 (10)35.034.569.5+0.540%40%
Last 5 (5)38.235.273.4+3.040%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)32.634.967.5-2.432%26%
vs Similar (6)34.237.271.3-3.050%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)41.237.879.0+3.525%75%
This opponent (Norfolk State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Norfolk StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
31-28
31
28
+3
A17/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A28/02
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
L
29-45
29
45
-16
A02/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H06/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
30-39
30
39
-9
H12/03
NCAA
Regent University
#428
W
35-15
35
15
+20
H03/11
NCAA
Randolph
#350
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H05/11
NCAA
William & Mary
#159
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A08/11
NCAA
Old Dominion
#59
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H12/11
NCAA
69.8Avg total
34.4Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)35.136.171.2-1.147%37%
Last 30 at home (14)38.434.472.8+4.164%43%
Last 30 away (16)32.137.769.8-5.631%31%
Last 10 (10)34.435.469.8-1.050%40%
Last 5 (5)31.835.667.4-3.840%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)30.544.074.5-13.50%50%
vs Similar (4)26.839.866.5-13.00%25%
vs Weaker (19)38.333.071.3+5.368%37%
This opponent (Georgia State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
GEOR win
no forecast
@ 1.22
NORF win
no forecast
@ 4.35
1st half Spread Georgia State -4.5 · main line
GEOR -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
NORF +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Georgia State 1st half total 39 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Norfolk State 1st half total 33 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Georgia State -5.5
GEOR -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
NORF +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Georgia State -3.5
GEOR -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
NORF +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Georgia State -6.5
GEOR -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
NORF +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Georgia State -2.5
GEOR -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
NORF +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.82
1st half Over/Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Georgia State -7.5
GEOR -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
NORF +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Over/Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Spread Georgia State -8.5
GEOR -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NORF +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
GEOR
no forecast
@ 1.28
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
NORF
no forecast
@ 4.35

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
GEOR win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
NORF win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: GEOR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NORF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Georgia State -971.2%1.72
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.57		---+16.7pp
Georgia State -874.3%1.61
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.47		---+16.1pp
Georgia State over 75.575.4%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+11.9pp
Norfolk State under 74.576.7%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+6.5pp
Over 140.570.9%1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34		---+3.7pp
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🔒 50 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Georgia State wins
0
Norfolk State wins
No previous meetings.
Georgia Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AFresno State92-95 OT
07/11/26HAndrew Fighting Tigers111-61
06/11/26ACharlotte67-77
02/11/26HBowling Green73-76
03/03/26ALouisiana Lafayette75-84
28/02/26HOld Dominion73-81
25/02/26HCoastal Carolina71-76
21/02/26HJames Madison65-80
20/02/26HGeorgia Southern66-64
14/02/26AOld Dominion55-78
Norfolk Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HOld Dominion60-71
08/11/26AWilliam & Mary73-104
05/11/26HRandolph78-71
03/11/26HRegent University68-45
12/03/26HSouth Carolina St82-88
06/03/26HHoward76-84
02/03/26AMorgan State84-90
28/02/26ACoppin State75-69
21/02/26HSouth Carolina St90-71
17/02/26AMd.-East. Shore70-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Georgia State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game85.892.079.5
Allowed / game77.268.586.0
Point differential+8.5+23.5-6.5
Avg total163.0160.5165.5
Over 148.575%100%50%
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %25%0%50%
Norfolk State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLL50%
HomeWWL67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game69.868.773.0
Allowed / game72.862.3104.0
Point differential-3.0+6.3-31.0
Avg total142.5131.0177.0
Over 148.550%33%100%
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
10 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Morgan State54180%80.864.6+16.2
2 South Carolina St43175%78.272.8+5.5
3 Howard53260%72.070.6+1.4
4 Norfolk State42250%69.872.8-3.0
5 Delaware State41325%68.068.2-0.2
6 Coppin State51420%62.467.6-5.2
7 Md.-East. Shore51420%58.670.0-11.4
8 N. Carolina Central4040%63.574.2-10.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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