Gonzaga faces New Mexico State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Gonzaga as the clear favourite because of its 98% win probability and a projected 86-62 victory that reflects the team's strong season numbers. Gonzaga entered the season with a 0-1 record, averaging 72.0 points scored and 78.0 points allowed per game, while New Mexico State is undefeated at 1-0, scoring 73.0 and allowing 66.0 points per game. In the last five games Gonzaga has won three and lost two, with recent results including a 73-64 home win over Kennesaw State, a 72-78 away loss to Purdue, and a 68-74 home defeat by Texas; New Mexico State has won four of its last five, with a 73-66 home triumph over Western N. M., a 68-63 away win over Jacksonville State, and a 61-69 loss to Sam Houston St. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 98% chance Gonzaga will win, a 2% chance for New Mexico State, and a 39% probability that the total will exceed the 152.5 line; the game is also a 1% chance of overtime. The final score is expected to be 86-62, with a total of 148.1 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gonzaga winWon
97.7%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+3.5pp
New Mexico State winLost
2.3%fair 43.63
Best odds65.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-3.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Gonzaga) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
52.6%
@ 1.64-9.9pp
Under 147
47.4%
@ 2.50+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.64
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 152 · main lineActual: Over 152
Over 152
40.0%
@ 1.94-9.7pp
Under 152
60.0%
@ 1.90+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 157Actual: Over 157
Over 157
28.4%
@ 2.65-6.7pp
Under 157
71.6%
@ 1.43+6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Gonzaga total 84Actual: Gonzaga over 84
Over 84
58.6%
Under 84
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gonzaga total 88 · main lineActual: Gonzaga over 88
Over 88
41.9%
@ 1.85-8.1pp
Under 88
58.1%
@ 1.85+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Gonzaga total 92Actual: Gonzaga over 92
Over 92
26.6%
Under 92
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico State total 59.5Actual: New Mexico State over 59.5
Over 59.5
59.8%
@ 1.39-5.4pp
Under 59.5
40.2%
@ 2.60+5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
New Mexico State total 63.5 · main lineActual: New Mexico State over 63.5
Over 63.5
43.8%
@ 2.50-6.2pp
Under 63.5
56.2%
@ 1.87+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.50
New Mexico State total 67.5Actual: New Mexico State over 67.5
Over 67.5
28.9%
@ 3.50-1.9pp
Under 67.5
71.1%
@ 1.40+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.25
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Gonzaga -33.5Actual: Gonzaga -33.5
GONZ -33.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
NEW +33.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
GONZ
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.40
NEW
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.39
Spread Gonzaga -30.5 · main lineActual: Gonzaga -30.5
GONZ -30.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NEW +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
Best 5 market prices
GONZ
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.83
NEW
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.69
Betano
1.60
Spread Gonzaga -27.5Actual: Gonzaga -27.5
GONZ -27.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
NEW +27.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
GONZ
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
NEW
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
GonzagaNew Mexico State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Gonzaga under 92.5
74.3%
1.82
Betano
1.82
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 94.5
80.3%
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 91.5
70.9%
1.86
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.80
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 96.5
85.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 93.5
77.4%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 95.5
83.0%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 97.5
87.6%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 99.5
91.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 100.5
92.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Under 156.5
70.1%
1.58
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Under 157.5
72.2%
1.52
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
78.1%
1.38
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
Under 158.5
74.3%
1.46
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 101.5
94.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Under 159.5
76.2%
1.41
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Lost
Under 162.5
81.6%
1.29
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Under 161.5
79.9%
1.31
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Gonzaga under 103.5
96.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Under 160
77.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Gonzaga (regulation)
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 157
71.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
Under 158
73.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 159
75.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Under 172.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 177.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
88.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
Gonzaga win
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Under 171.5
92.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Under 166.5
87.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
New Mexico State under 67.5
71.1%
1.32
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 47.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
New Mexico State over 55.5
74.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
New Mexico State over 56.5
70.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
New Mexico State over 54.5
77.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
New Mexico State over 48.5
91.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
New Mexico State over 51.5
85.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
New Mexico State over 53.5
80.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
New Mexico State over 49.5
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
New Mexico State under 68.5
74.5%
1.25
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
New Mexico State over 50.5
87.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
New Mexico State under 76.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
New Mexico State over 52.5
83.0%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
New Mexico State under 74.5
89.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Gonzaga over 73.5
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Gonzaga over 74.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 126.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 127.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
New Mexico State under 72.5
85.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Gonzaga over 75.5
85.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
New Mexico State under 69.5
77.6%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
New Mexico State under 70.5
80.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
New Mexico State under 71.5
83.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Gonzaga over 76.5
83.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 131.5
84.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
83.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Gonzaga over 77.5
80.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Gonzaga over 78.5
77.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
76.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Gonzaga over 79.5
74.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Gonzaga over 80.5
71.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Over 137.5
74.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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