High Point faces Liberty on 1 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the home side and predicting a decisive outing. High Point has gone 4-1 in its last five games, while Liberty is 2-3 over the same span, a disparity that reflects the projected 79-73 win for High Point and a 73-79 loss for Liberty. The projected total of 151.9 points sits below the 155.5 line, giving the model a 41% chance of an over, while the 7.5-point home line has a 48% probability of being covered. In the most recent matchups, High Point beat Wisconsin 83-82 away on 19 March 2026 and Winthrop 91-76 at home on 8 March 2026, whereas Liberty's last five included a 69-77 loss to Missouri State at home on 11 March 2026, a 79-72 win over Sam Houston St. at home on 7 March 2026, and a 71-76 defeat to Louisiana Tech at home on 5 March 2026. The model assigns a 73% chance to High Point and a 27% chance to Liberty, with a 4% probability of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 86.7 | 74.7 | 161.4 | +12.0 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.6 | 76.4 | 160.0 | +7.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker (30) | 88.8 | 71.9 | 160.7 | +16.9 | 87% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.7 | 77.5 | 153.2 | -1.8 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.0 | 75.4 | 148.4 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (13) | 73.0 | 71.8 | 144.8 | +1.2 | 69% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 80.2 | 69.9 | 150.1 | +10.4 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.2 | 33.4 | 76.5 | +9.8 | 80% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 44.5 | 30.5 | 75.1 | +14.0 | 95% | 58% |
| Last 30 away (11) | 40.8 | 38.3 | 79.1 | +2.5 | 55% | 82% |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.3 | 33.9 | 75.2 | +7.4 | 70% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.2 | 35.6 | 74.8 | +3.6 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker (30) | 43.2 | 33.4 | 76.5 | +9.8 | 80% | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.4 | 32.6 | 70.0 | +4.8 | 67% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.9 | 32.2 | 74.2 | +9.7 | 81% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 32.2 | 32.9 | 65.1 | -0.7 | 50% | 14% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 35.9 | 71.1 | -0.7 | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.8 | 35.0 | 69.8 | -0.2 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (13) | 34.4 | 34.2 | 68.6 | +0.2 | 46% | 31% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 39.7 | 31.3 | 71.0 | +8.4 | 82% | 47% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point under 85.5 | 72.9% | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.38 | - | - | +10.4pp | Won |
| High Point under 86.5 | 76.1% | 1.37 | 1.39 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| High Point under 88.5 | 81.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| High Point under 87.5 | 79.0% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.26 | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 70.3% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 72.4% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| High Point under 91.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| High Point under 90.5 | 86.5% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 71.8% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +5.8pp | Won |
| Liberty +15.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.23 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Liberty +14.5 | 75.3% | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Lost |
| High Point under 89.5 | 84.3% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Won |
| Liberty +13.5 | 72.4% | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Lost |
| Under 163 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Won |
| Liberty +16.5 | 80.4% | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.18 | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Won |
| Liberty under 80.5 | 78.1% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Won |
| Liberty under 81.5 | 80.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| High Point +13.5 | 95.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 76.2% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Liberty under 78.5 | 72.1% | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +4.2pp | Won |
| Liberty under 79.5 | 75.2% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.29 | - | - | +4.2pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.5% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +3.9pp | - |
| Under 165.5 | 79.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| High Point +12.5 | 94.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| Liberty +17.5 | 82.7% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
| Liberty under 83.5 | 85.4% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 92.1% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Liberty +22.5 | 91.2% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +2.9pp | Won |
| Liberty under 82.5 | 83.2% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Liberty +21.5 | 89.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 87.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +2.6pp | Won |
| Liberty under 84.5 | 87.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +2.4pp | Won |
| Liberty +14 | 74.6% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +2.4pp | Lost |
| Liberty +15 | 77.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Push |
| High Point +8.5 | 90.2% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| High Point +1.5 | 74.9% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| High Point over 63.5 | 94.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Won |
| Liberty +13 | 71.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Lost |
| High Point +7.5 | 88.7% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| High Point +3.5 | 80.4% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| High Point over 62.5 | 95.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Liberty over 56.5 | 94.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| High Point over 64.5 | 92.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| High Point over 65.5 | 91.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Liberty over 58.5 | 91.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Lost |
| High Point -1 | 72.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Liberty over 57.5 | 92.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Lost |
| High Point +2.5 | 78.1% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.3pp | Won |
| High Point -1.5 | 70.2% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| High Point over 66.5 | 89.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +0.1pp | Won |
| High Point (regulation) | 70.2% | 1.29 | 1.36 | 1.27 | 1.24 | - | - | -0.3pp | Won |
| Liberty over 59.5 | 89.8% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -0.6pp | Lost |
| High Point over 67.5 | 87.9% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -0.8pp | Won |
| Liberty over 60.5 | 88.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.1pp | Lost |
| Over 130.5 | 90.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -1.9pp | Lost |
| High Point over 68.5 | 85.8% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -2.1pp | Won |
| Liberty over 61.5 | 85.9% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -2.4pp | Lost |
| High Point over 69.5 | 83.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -2.6pp | Won |
| Liberty over 62.5 | 83.5% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Lost |
| High Point over 71.5 | 78.2% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -3.2pp | Won |
| Liberty over 64.5 | 78.1% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -3.3pp | Lost |
| High Point over 70.5 | 81.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -3.4pp | Won |
| Liberty over 63.5 | 80.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -3.4pp | Lost |
| High Point win | 72.7% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.22 | -3.6pp | Won |
| Liberty over 66.5 | 71.9% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -4.3pp | Lost |
| Over 135.5 | 84.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -5.0pp | Lost |
| Liberty over 65.5 | 75.1% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -5.3pp | Lost |
| High Point over 72.5 | 75.2% | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -6.1pp | Lost |
| High Point over 73.5 | 72.0% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -6.8pp | Lost |
| Over 140.5 | 75.3% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | -7.8pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 | A | Arkansas | 88-94 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Wisconsin | 83-82 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Winthrop | 91-76 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UNC Asheville | 75-71 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Gardner Webb | 81-59 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Presbyterian | 79-73 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Winthrop | 89-87 |
| 20/02/26 | H | UNC Asheville | 74-48 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Gardner Webb | 112-87 |
| 13/02/26 | A | USC Upstate | 95-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 | H | Missouri State | 69-77 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Sam Houston St. | 79-72 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Louisiana Tech | 71-76 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Jacksonville State | 81-78 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Kennesaw State | 65-74 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Western Kentucky | 73-94 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Florida International | 90-89 OT |
| 14/02/26 | A | UTEP | 73-64 |
| 12/02/26 | A | New Mexico State | 77-75 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Missouri State | 79-76 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 155.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 155.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | 37 | 35 | 72 |
| Liberty | 34 | 23 | 57 |
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