PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Liberty vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 79-76
42-38 37-38
Position#26
Record19-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game67.2
vs
Position#223
Record13-9
FormLWWLW
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game72.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Liberty v Missouri State
11 Mar 2026
LIBE69
MISS77
07 Feb 2026
LIBE79
MISS76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liberty winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LibertyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kennesaw State
#113
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H03/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
78-69
78
69
+9
H04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A09/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
82-74
82
74
+8
A10/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
73-71
73
71
+2
H15/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H17/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
76-69
76
69
+7
A22/01
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
67-51
67
51
+16
H24/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
81-65
81
65
+16
A30/01
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
75-69
75
69
+6
A05/02
NCAA
1H
2H
46-33
35-40
27-27
51-42
34-27
38-29
34-33
48-41
46-29
27-42
41-38
39-31
35-32
41-37
34-28
33-23
43-29
38-36
29-30
46-39
143.1Avg total
76.5Scored
66.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)79.367.2146.5+12.186%
Season at home (12)84.163.2147.2+20.992%
Season away (10)73.572.0145.5+1.580%
Last 10 (10)76.566.6143.1+9.9100%
Last 5 (5)75.864.6140.4+11.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)72.670.3142.9+2.278%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)80.967.3148.2+13.686%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
79-55
79
55
+24
H03/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/01
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
79-71
79
71
+8
H10/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
72-87
72
87
-15
A15/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
87-90 OT
87
90
-3
A17/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
84-75
84
75
+9
A23/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
71-80
71
80
-9
H29/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-67
74
67
+7
H31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
49-23
30-32
53-41
36-41
37-42
43-48
35-30
44-41
34-41
38-46
36-38
32-30
33-31
51-44
21-31
41-26
33-38
38-42
39-31
35-36
153.1Avg total
77.7Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)75.372.3147.6+3.059%
Season at home (13)79.369.8149.2+9.577%
Season away (9)69.675.8145.3-6.233%
Last 10 (10)77.775.4153.1+2.360%
Last 5 (5)75.673.8149.4+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)68.877.4146.2-8.59%
vs Similar (12)71.472.8144.2-1.450%
vs Weaker (4)66.254.2120.5+12.0100%
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.3+6.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +0.2+0.2
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.3+6.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +0.2+0.2
LibertyMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LibertyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kennesaw State
#113
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H03/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A09/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A10/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H15/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H17/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A22/01
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H24/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A30/01
NCAA
Delaware
#326
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A05/02
NCAA
67.5Avg total
36.9Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.131.269.3+6.977%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.929.270.1+11.888%-
Last 30 away (13)34.533.868.3+0.662%-
Last 10 (10)36.930.667.5+6.380%-
Last 5 (5)36.431.467.8+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)34.433.768.1+0.856%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)39.730.169.9+9.686%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTEP
#307
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H03/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H04/01
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A08/01
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H10/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A15/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A17/01
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A23/01
NCAA
UTEP
#307
L
21-31
21
31
-10
A24/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
33-38
33
38
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H31/01
NCAA
71.6Avg total
37.0Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.432.868.2+2.647%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.631.270.8+8.469%-
Last 30 away (14)30.634.765.3-4.121%-
Last 10 (10)37.034.671.6+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)32.433.866.2-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)32.537.069.5-4.59%-
vs Similar (12)35.232.267.4+3.167%-
vs Weaker (4)31.823.855.5+8.075%-
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Liberty wins
0
Missouri State wins
No previous meetings.
Libertylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/26ADelaware75-69
30/01/26AMiddle Tenn. St.81-65
24/01/26HDelaware67-51
22/01/26AWestern Kentucky76-69
17/01/26HUTEP80-69
15/01/26HNew Mexico State73-71
10/01/26ASam Houston St.82-74
09/01/26ALouisiana Tech72-56
04/01/26HJacksonville State78-69
03/01/26HKennesaw State81-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HJacksonville State74-67
29/01/26HSam Houston St.71-80
24/01/26AUTEP62-57
23/01/26ANew Mexico State84-75
17/01/26AMiddle Tenn. St.87-90 OT
15/01/26AWestern Kentucky72-87
10/01/26HFlorida International79-71
08/01/26AKennesaw State80-90
04/01/26HNew Mexico State89-82
03/01/26HUTEP79-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liberty
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %86%92%80%
Points / game79.384.173.5
Allowed / game67.263.272.0
Point differential+12.1+20.9+1.5
Avg total146.5147.2145.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%67%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %5%0%10%
Missouri State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW59%
HomeWWWLW77%
AwayLLLWW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %59%77%33%
Points / game75.379.369.6
Allowed / game72.369.875.8
Point differential+3.0+9.5-6.2
Avg total147.6149.2145.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%31%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %5%0%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty2219386%79.367.2+12.1
2 Sam Houston St.2316770%83.273.2+10.0
3 Kennesaw State2214864%86.576.0+10.6
4 Missouri State2213959%75.372.3+3.0
5 Jacksonville State22121055%73.066.6+6.3
6 Louisiana Tech22121055%68.162.7+5.5
7 New Mexico State22121055%75.369.9+5.4
8 Western Kentucky23121152%77.274.6+2.6
9 Florida International22111150%83.078.7+4.3
10 Middle Tenn. St.23111248%74.671.9+2.7
11 UTEP2381535%69.271.4-2.3
12 Delaware2371630%66.472.3-5.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Liberty423779
Missouri State383876
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.