Hofstra faces Iona on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Hofstra as the clear favourite, assigning a 95% chance of victory largely because of their 1-2 record, 72.7 points per game and 65.3 allowed, and a 1-0 home record with 97.0 points scored and 51.0 allowed. Iona, meanwhile, sits at 2-2 with 66.2 points scored and 71.5 allowed, and a 0-2 road record where they averaged 68.5 points and surrendered 91.0. In the last five games each side has gone 2-3, with Hofstra's recent win over St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) 97-51 at home and Iona's recent victory over NJIT 72-49 at home. Their head-to-head history is even at 3-3, the most recent meeting ending in an 81-73 Iona win on 7 November 2025. Pythia projects a 80-61 score, a 141.9 total, and gives Hofstra a 86% chance to cover the -6.5 line, while the over on the 137.5 line has a 61% probability; the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The final game-day figure is Hofstra's 97.0 points per home game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hofstra winWon
94.7%fair 1.06
Best odds1.37
Implied72.0%
Edge+22.7pp
Iona winLost
5.3%fair 18.93
Best odds3.50
Implied28.0%
Edge-22.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Hofstra) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 129Actual: Under 129
Over 129
79.2%
Under 129
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 134 · main lineActual: Under 134
Over 134
69.0%
@ 1.89+18.5pp
Under 134
31.0%
@ 1.93-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 139Actual: Under 139
Over 139
57.0%
@ 2.16+13.1pp
Under 139
43.0%
@ 1.78-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
SBO
1.93
Under
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Be
1.66
📊 3. Team Totals
Hofstra total 65.5Actual: Hofstra under 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.33
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 2.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.85
Hofstra total 69.5 · main lineActual: Hofstra under 69.5
Over 69.5
86.5%
@ 1.88+36.5pp
Under 69.5
13.5%
@ 2.02-36.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.88
Hofstra total 73.5Actual: Hofstra under 73.5
Over 73.5
75.8%
@ 2.30+36.4pp
Under 73.5
24.2%
@ 1.50-36.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.50
Iona total 61Actual: Iona under 61
Over 61
51.5%
Under 61
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iona total 65 · main lineActual: Iona under 65
Over 65
35.3%
@ 1.86-14.6pp
Under 65
64.7%
@ 1.85+14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Iona total 69Actual: Iona under 69
Over 69
21.5%
Under 69
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Hofstra -10Actual: Iona +10
HOFS -10
79.3%
IONA +10
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
HOFS
No market prices yet.
IONA
No market prices yet.
Spread Hofstra -7 · main lineActual: Iona +7
HOFS -7
86.1%
@ 1.95+36.8pp
IONA +7
13.9%
@ 1.90-36.8pp
Best 5 market prices
HOFS
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
IONA
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
Spread Hofstra -4Actual: Iona +4
HOFS -4
91.3%
IONA +4
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
HOFS
No market prices yet.
IONA
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
HofstraIona
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Hofstra) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Iona win
HOFS win
no forecast
@ 1.52
IONA win
no forecast
@ 2.57
2nd half Spread Hofstra -3.5 · main lineActual: Iona +3.5
HOFS -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
IONA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
HOFS
no forecast
@ 1.55
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
IONA
no forecast
@ 2.62
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Hofstra -9
81.8%
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
-
-
-
-
+41.1pp
Lost
Hofstra -8.5
82.2%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+39.6pp
Lost
Hofstra -8
84.1%
2.06
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Hofstra -11.5
74.5%
2.52
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
-
+38.0pp
Lost
Hofstra -12.5
71.6%
2.72
Betano
2.72
-
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Lost
Hofstra -7.5
84.4%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
+37.6pp
Lost
Hofstra -10.5
77.3%
2.32
Betano
2.32
-
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Hofstra -9.5
79.8%
2.18
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Hofstra over 71.5
81.7%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+37.0pp
Lost
Hofstra over 70.5
84.2%
1.88
Pinnacle
2.00
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Hofstra -7
86.1%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
Hofstra over 74.5
72.6%
2.56
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
+36.6pp
Lost
Hofstra over 69.5
86.5%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Lost
Hofstra over 73.5
75.8%
2.30
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
-
+36.4pp
Lost
Hofstra -6.5
86.4%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
+34.6pp
Lost
Hofstra -6
88.0%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.73
SBO
1.70
-
-
+34.0pp
Lost
Hofstra over 71
83.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+33.7pp
Lost
Hofstra over 72.5
78.9%
1.94
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+32.3pp
Lost
Hofstra -5.5
88.3%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.67
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
Hofstra -5
89.8%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
-
-
-
-
+31.9pp
Lost
Hofstra -4.5
89.9%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Lost
Hofstra over 72
81.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Hofstra -3.5
91.5%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Hofstra over 73
78.2%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Lost
Hofstra -2.5
92.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Hofstra (regulation)
93.8%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.33
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Hofstra -1.5
94.0%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Hofstra +1.5
95.3%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Hofstra win
94.7%
1.33
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathon Bet
1.32
+22.7pp
Won
Over 132
73.3%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Over 133
71.2%
1.78
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Over 132.5
71.8%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Over 131.5
73.9%
1.65
Betano
1.65
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Over 130.5
75.9%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Over 129.5
77.8%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Lost
Over 128.5
79.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
Over 127.5
81.3%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Lost
Iona under 69.5
79.1%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Iona under 70.5
81.8%
1.26
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Iona under 67.5
73.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.7%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Iona under 68.5
76.1%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Iona under 78.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Iona under 76.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Iona under 72.5
86.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Iona under 80.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Iona under 74.5
90.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Iona under 73.5
88.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Iona over 52.5
81.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Iona over 53.5
78.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Iona over 54.5
75.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Hofstra under 88.5
79.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Hofstra under 86.5
73.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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