PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Hofstra will host Murray State on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Hofstra the clear favourite, assigning it a 90% chance of winning largely because the team has a 1-2 record and averages 72.7 points while allowing 65.3, whereas Murray State is undefeated at 3-0, averaging 93.7 points and conceding 64.0; the model therefore projects a 84-70 score and a total of 154.1 points, with a 2% chance of overtime. Hofstra's single home game shows a 1-0 record, 97.0 points scored and 51.0 allowed, and its last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 97-51 victory over St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) at home; Murray State's road record is 1-0, 94.0 points scored and 64.0 allowed, and its last five games include three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 94-57 win over Alcorn State at home. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. The projected spread is 84-70, giving Hofstra a 90% probability of covering the line.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 70.0 | 63.8 | 133.8 | +6.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 79.5 | 55.0 | 134.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 60.5 | 72.5 | 133.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.4 | 64.9 | 136.3 | +6.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.0 | 69.0 | 139.0 | +1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 63.0 | 85.0 | 148.0 | -22.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (5) | 73.6 | 74.0 | 147.6 | -0.4 | 20% |
| vs Weaker (22) | 73.1 | 65.1 | 138.2 | +8.0 | 82% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 95.0 | 67.5 | 162.5 | +27.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 95.3 | 68.7 | 164.0 | +26.7 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 94.0 | 64.0 | 158.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.0 | 76.1 | 159.1 | +6.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.8 | 72.4 | 164.2 | +19.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 80.4 | 89.7 | 170.1 | -9.3 | 29% |
| vs Similar (14) | 81.3 | 77.8 | 159.1 | +3.5 | 64% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 87.4 | 70.6 | 158.0 | +16.9 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 29.9 | 65.9 | +6.1 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.8 | 27.4 | 63.2 | +8.3 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.3 | 32.6 | 68.9 | +3.6 | 57% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.9 | 30.1 | 63.0 | +2.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.8 | 28.8 | 60.6 | +3.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 32.0 | 41.0 | 73.0 | -9.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 36.8 | 33.8 | 70.6 | +3.0 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (22) | 35.3 | 29.7 | 65.0 | +5.6 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.8 | 36.2 | 76.0 | +3.6 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 41.2 | 35.2 | 76.4 | +6.1 | 82% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 37.8 | 37.5 | 75.4 | +0.3 | 46% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.3 | 34.5 | 74.8 | +5.8 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.2 | 38.4 | 82.6 | +5.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 36.7 | 39.9 | 76.6 | -3.1 | 57% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 37.9 | 36.2 | 74.1 | +1.7 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 45.0 | 33.3 | 78.3 | +11.7 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Iona | 62-59 OT |
| 11/11/26 | A | Arizona State | 63-85 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Princeton | 58-60 |
| 02/11/26 | H | St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) | 97-51 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Alabama | 70-90 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Monmouth | 75-69 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Towson | 68-65 OT |
| 09/03/26 | H | William & Mary | 92-61 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Drexel | 62-51 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Stony Brook | 67-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Texas Southern | 99-78 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Alcorn State | 94-57 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 93-71 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Tennessee State | 94-64 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 79-92 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Bradley | 78-87 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Evansville | 88-75 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Illinois State | 61-78 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Belmont | 70-87 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Indiana State | 74-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLW | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.0 | 79.5 | 60.5 |
| Allowed / game | 63.8 | 55.0 | 72.5 |
| Point differential | +6.2 | +24.5 | -12.0 |
| Avg total | 133.8 | 134.5 | 133.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 95.0 | 95.3 | 94.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.5 | 68.7 | 64.0 |
| Point differential | +27.5 | +26.7 | +30.0 |
| Avg total | 162.5 | 164.0 | 158.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charleston | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 104.7 | 67.3 | +37.3 |
| 2 |  NC Wilmington | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 71.0 | +19.0 |
| 3 |  William & Mary | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 91.3 | 78.0 | +13.3 |
| 4 | Hofstra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 70.0 | 63.8 | +6.2 |
| 5 |  Towson | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 70.8 | 65.5 | +5.2 |
| 6 |  Elon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.5 | 70.5 | -1.0 |
| 7 |  Northeastern | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 83.2 | -4.5 |
| 8 |  Stony Brook | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 64.7 | +9.0 |
| 9 |  N. Carolina A&T | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 68.3 | +8.0 |
| 10 |  Hampton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.0 | 68.7 | -7.7 |
| 11 |  Drexel | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.0 | 76.3 | -9.3 |
| 12 |  Monmouth | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.0 | 79.2 | -18.2 |
| 13 |  Campbell | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.7 | 79.3 | -16.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 |  Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Bradley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 59.5 | 55.0 | +4.5 |
| 9 |  Northern Iowa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.5 | 87.5 | +0.0 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
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