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Murray State vs Evansville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 88-75
0-0 37-36 0-0 51-39
Position#102
Record19-10
FormWLWLL
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game79.4
vs
Position#362
Record6-21
FormLLWLL
Points / game66.6
Allowed / game75.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Murray State v Evansville
09 Jan 2027
MURR v EVAN
upcoming
21 Feb 2026
MURR88
EVAN75
06 Mar 2025
MURR74
EVAN53
03 Dec 2024
MURR63
EVAN61
10 Feb 2024
MURR73
EVAN70
18 Feb 2023
MURR74
EVAN58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Evansville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
L
90-101
90
101
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
76-81
76
81
-5
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
65-70
65
70
-5
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
86-103
86
103
-17
A01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
91-81
91
81
+10
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-89
60
89
-29
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
74-72
74
72
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
61-78
61
78
-17
A19/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
41-44
0-0
49-57
0-0
38-37
0-0
38-44
0-0
29-35
0-0
36-35
0-0
40-54
0-0
46-49
0-0
40-33
0-0
41-41
0-0
43-34
0-0
48-47
0-0
31-39
0-0
29-50
0-0
43-21
0-0
31-51
0-0
39-24
0-0
31-63
0-0
28-36
0-0
33-42
159.0Avg total
75.4Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)83.579.4163.0+4.166%
Season at home (16)84.174.9159.0+9.281%
Season away (13)82.885.1167.8-2.346%
Last 10 (10)75.483.6159.0-8.230%
Last 5 (5)71.281.4152.6-10.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)78.187.2165.4-9.125%
vs Similar (15)82.978.6161.5+4.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)87.971.0158.9+16.9100%
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
W
72-69
72
69
+3
A10/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
90-94 OT
90
94
-4
H14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
49-76
49
76
-27
A21/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
78-82
78
82
-4
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A31/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
63-84
63
84
-21
H04/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
63-70 OT
63
70
-7
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
60-86
60
86
-26
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
46-84
46
84
-38
H19/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-38
0-0
37-31
0-0
36-29
0-0
43-50
0-0
20-34
0-0
29-42
0-0
36-30
0-0
42-52
0-0
21-41
0-0
34-30
0-0
29-46
0-0
34-38
0-0
26-28
0-0
32-30
0-0
45-32
0-0
43-48
0-0
32-43
0-0
28-43
0-0
23-38
0-0
23-46
146.0Avg total
66.4Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)66.675.3141.9-8.722%
Season at home (15)69.774.5144.1-4.827%
Season away (12)62.876.3139.1-13.617%
Last 10 (10)66.479.6146.0-13.220%
Last 5 (5)64.080.8144.8-16.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)64.276.3140.5-12.114%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)84.048.5132.5+35.5100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -5.6-5.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -9.7-9.7Q4: -6.5-6.5
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -5.6-5.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -9.7-9.7Q4: -6.5-6.5
Murray StateEvansville
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H29/01
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A01/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H10/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
43-21
43
21
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A19/02
NCAA
72.9Avg total
37.2Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.435.274.6+4.267%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.332.673.9+8.888%-
Last 30 away (14)37.238.375.5-1.143%-
Last 10 (10)37.235.772.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.867.6+6.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)35.638.273.9-2.662%-
vs Similar (15)38.736.374.9+2.453%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)45.329.674.9+15.7100%-
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana State
#311
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A10/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
20-34
20
34
-14
A21/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A31/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H04/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
26-28
26
28
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H19/02
NCAA
66.2Avg total
30.3Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.235.866.0-5.627%-
Last 30 at home (16)31.835.467.2-3.731%-
Last 30 away (14)28.436.164.6-7.721%-
Last 10 (10)30.335.966.2-5.630%-
Last 5 (5)31.037.468.4-6.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)29.436.565.9-7.121%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)41.525.567.0+16.0100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Murray State wins
2
Evansville wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26AIllinois State61-78
15/02/26HBelmont70-87
13/02/26AIndiana State74-72
10/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-89
07/02/26ASouthern Illinois91-81
04/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)81-74
01/02/26ABelmont86-103
29/01/26HIllinois State65-70
24/01/26ANorthern Iowa76-81
22/01/26ADrake90-101
Evansvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)46-84
13/02/26ASouthern Illinois60-86
10/02/26HIllinois State88-80
07/02/26AValparaiso63-70 OT
04/02/26HIndiana State63-84
31/01/26ANorthern Iowa55-71
29/01/26ADrake78-82
21/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)49-76
14/01/26HBradley90-94 OT
10/01/26AIndiana State72-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL66%
HomeWLWLL81%
AwayLLWWL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291613
Win %66%81%46%
Points / game83.584.182.8
Allowed / game79.474.985.1
Point differential+4.1+9.2-2.3
Avg total163.0159.0167.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%44%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)75% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Evansville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL22%
HomeLLLWL27%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %22%27%17%
Points / game66.669.762.8
Allowed / game75.374.576.3
Point differential-8.7-4.8-13.6
Avg total141.9144.1139.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)0% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %7%7%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont2924583%82.773.5+9.2
2 Murray State29191066%83.579.4+4.1
3 Illinois State28181064%76.467.8+8.6
4 Northern Iowa28181064%69.561.1+8.4
5 Bradley28181064%76.972.6+4.3
6 Illinois (Chi.)29161355%75.169.0+6.1
7 Valparaiso29161355%71.670.9+0.7
8 Southern Illinois28131546%73.870.7+3.1
9 Drake29121741%76.275.2+1.0
10 Indiana State28101836%74.675.1-0.6
11 Evansville2762122%66.675.3-8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Murray State03705188
Evansville03603975
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