Illinois (Chi.) faces NC Greensboro in the NCAA on 9 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Illinois (Chi.) the clear favourite with a 94% chance of victory, a 6% chance for NC Greensboro, reflecting the former's undefeated 2-0 record, 87.5 points per game and only 51.5 allowed, while the latter sits 1-1 with 80.5 points scored and 58.5 allowed; Illinois (Chi.) has won both of its games at home, averaging 87.5 points and conceding 51.5, and has four wins and one loss in its last five games, including a 96-47 win over St. Francis (ILL) and a 79-56 win over Robert Morris, whereas NC Greensboro's road record is 0-1, with a 65-74 loss to Elon and a 75-81 loss to Furman, but it has a 3-2 record in its last five games, highlighted by a 96-43 home win over Milligan; the teams have met once before, with NC Greensboro winning 58-57 on 26 November 2023; Pythia projects a score of 84-65, a total of 149.1 points, a home line of -20.0 with a 43% chance the home team covers, a total line of 150.0 with a 48% chance of the over, and a 1% probability of overtime, and the game will be played at Illinois (Chi.)'s venue.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Illinois (Chi.) winWon
94.1%fair 1.06
Best odds1.03
Implied93.6%
Edge+0.5pp
NC Greensboro winLost
5.9%fair 17.03
Best odds17.00
Implied6.4%
Edge-0.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
NC Greensboro +24.5
71.1%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 90.5
75.5%
1.32
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 89.5
72.2%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro +24
70.2%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro +25
73.2%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 101.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) (regulation)
93.2%
1.04
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.03
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 99.5
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 93.5
83.9%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 97.5
91.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 94.5
86.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 95.5
88.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) under 91.5
78.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 174.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 59.5
72.1%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 80.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 51.5
91.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 124.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 52.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 79.5
91.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) win
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Marathon Bet
1.01
+0.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 58.5
75.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 74.5
82.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 78.5
90.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 53.5
88.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 56.5
81.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 55.5
83.8%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 72.5
87.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 57.5
78.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -4.5
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 54.5
86.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 73.5
84.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 77.5
88.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 159.5
74.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 73.5
79.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 76.5
86.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 77.5
73.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 75.5
79.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Under 164.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -9.5
78.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 75.5
84.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 74.5
81.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 72.5
76.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -11.5
72.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Illinois (Chi.) over 76.5
76.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -12
71.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Lost
NC Greensboro under 71.5
73.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Lost
Over 134.5
81.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 139.5
72.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 78.5
70.2%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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