Illinois faces Penn on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Illinois as the clear favourite, assigning it a 97% chance of victory largely because of its 1-0 record, 120.0 points per game, and only 45.0 points allowed, placing it second in the league. Illinois has played one game all season, winning 120-45 at home, and its sole home outing remains a 1-0 record with the same scoring figures; its last five games show four wins and one loss, and the recent result listed is a 120-45 victory over Fairleigh Dickinson at home on 2 November 2026. Penn, also at 1-0 for the season, has a 1-0 record all games, 88.0 points per game, 70.0 allowed, and a 1-0 home-only record; its last five games are four wins and one loss, with a recent 88-84 win over Yale on 15 March 2026. The teams have met once before, with Illinois winning 105-70 on 19 March 2026. Pythia projects a 89-66 score, 154.5 total points, and a 31% chance of the over on the 162.5 line, while Illinois has a 97% probability of covering the home spread; the overtime probability is 1%.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Illinois winWon
97.2%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+2.9pp
Penn winLost
2.8%fair 35.45
Best odds65.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-2.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Illinois) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 167.5Actual: Over 167.5
Over 167.5
20.8%
@ 1.80-32.8pp
Under 167.5
79.2%
@ 2.70+32.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Marathon Be
2.03
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 172.5 · main lineActual: Over 172.5
Over 172.5
13.1%
@ 1.92-36.6pp
Under 172.5
86.9%
@ 1.95+36.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 177.5Actual: Over 177.5
Over 177.5
7.6%
@ 2.35-31.9pp
Under 177.5
92.4%
@ 1.54+31.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
📊 3. Team Totals
Illinois total 91.5Actual: Illinois over 91.5
Over 91.5
38.5%
@ 1.36-40.8pp
Under 91.5
61.5%
@ 5.00+40.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.50
Betano
2.80
Illinois total 95.5 · main lineActual: Illinois over 95.5
Over 95.5
24.3%
@ 1.85-32.4pp
Under 95.5
75.7%
@ 3.20+32.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.47
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Illinois total 99.5Actual: Illinois over 99.5
Over 99.5
13.6%
@ 1.87-36.9pp
Under 99.5
86.4%
@ 2.38+36.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
1xBet
2.38
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Penn total 62.5Actual: Penn over 62.5
Over 62.5
62.9%
@ 1.34-18.6pp
Under 62.5
37.1%
@ 5.00+18.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
2.77
Penn total 66.5 · main lineActual: Penn over 66.5
Over 66.5
47.0%
@ 1.85-12.0pp
Under 66.5
53.0%
@ 2.62+12.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.20
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Penn total 70.5Actual: Penn under 70.5
Over 70.5
31.7%
@ 1.87-19.0pp
Under 70.5
68.3%
@ 1.92+19.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Illinois -33.5Actual: Illinois -33.5
ILLI -33.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
PENN +33.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
PENN
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Spread Illinois -30.5 · main lineActual: Illinois -30.5
ILLI -30.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
PENN +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
PENN
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Spread Illinois -27.5Actual: Illinois -27.5
ILLI -27.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
PENN +27.5
no forecast
@ 2.39
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
PENN
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18
1xBet
1.91
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IllinoisPenn
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Illinois under 94.5
72.4%
3.35
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.70
-
-
+39.9pp
Lost
Illinois under 96.5
78.7%
2.33
1xBet
3.20
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
+38.9pp
Lost
Under 171
85.3%
1.95
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.71
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
Under 169
82.3%
2.14
Bet365
2.40
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
-
+38.2pp
Lost
Under 170.5
84.1%
1.94
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.06
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
+38.0pp
Lost
Under 170
83.9%
2.02
Bet365
2.25
Marathon Bet
1.80
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Lost
Under 172
86.7%
1.95
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Under 171.5
85.6%
1.90
Bet365
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.83
+37.4pp
Lost
Illinois under 99.5
86.4%
1.94
1xBet
2.38
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
+36.9pp
Lost
Under 173
88.0%
1.89
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Under 175
90.3%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.77
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.71
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Under 172.5
86.9%
1.88
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
+36.6pp
Lost
Under 175.5
90.4%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.39
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Under 174
89.2%
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
-
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Illinois under 99
86.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Under 173.5
88.2%
1.84
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+35.9pp
Lost
Illinois under 98.5
84.1%
2.02
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
+35.6pp
Lost
Under 174.5
89.4%
1.79
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
+35.3pp
Lost
Under 176
91.4%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+35.0pp
Lost
Illinois under 98
83.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+33.7pp
Lost
Under 177
92.3%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Under 169.5
82.6%
1.94
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
+33.2pp
Lost
Under 176.5
91.4%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+33.0pp
Lost
Under 167.5
79.2%
2.11
Bet365
2.70
Marathon Bet
2.03
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
BetVictor
1.83
+32.8pp
Lost
Illinois under 95.5
75.7%
2.34
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.47
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
-
+32.4pp
Lost
Under 168
80.6%
2.19
Bet365
2.60
Marathon Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
-
-
+32.4pp
Lost
Under 177.5
92.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+31.9pp
Lost
Illinois under 97.5
81.5%
2.16
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.10
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+31.5pp
Lost
Illinois under 97
81.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Under 178
93.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Under 168.5
80.9%
1.96
Bet365
2.55
SBO
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.90
+30.3pp
Lost
Under 178.5
93.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Lost
Under 179
93.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Under 180
94.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Lost
Under 179.5
94.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Illinois under 96
78.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Under 165.5
75.5%
2.15
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
SBO
1.87
+27.6pp
Lost
Under 180.5
94.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Under 181
95.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
Under 163
70.8%
2.37
Bet365
2.65
Pinnacle
2.08
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Lost
Under 164
72.9%
2.15
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.96
-
-
+25.0pp
Lost
Under 181.5
95.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Lost
Under 163.5
71.4%
2.31
Bet365
3.70
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
BetVictor
1.85
+24.6pp
Lost
Under 165
75.0%
2.46
Bet365
3.05
Pinnacle
1.88
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Under 164.5
73.5%
2.12
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
+24.4pp
Lost
Under 166
76.9%
2.39
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
1.78
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Under 167
78.8%
2.23
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
1.70
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Under 166.5
77.4%
2.06
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.74
+23.0pp
Lost
Penn under 71.5
71.8%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+21.7pp
Won
Under 182.5
95.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Penn under 71
70.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Penn under 74.5
80.9%
1.36
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Penn under 73.5
78.1%
1.41
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Penn under 72.5
75.1%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Penn under 76.5
85.8%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Penn under 77.5
87.9%
1.20
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Penn under 75.5
83.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Penn under 81.5
94.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Penn under 79.5
91.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Penn under 80.5
92.8%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Penn under 78.5
89.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Illinois (regulation)
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Penn under 82.5
95.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Illinois win
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Illinois -9.5
87.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Penn over 53.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Illinois over 76.5
89.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Penn over 54.5
87.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Illinois -10.5
85.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Penn over 55.5
84.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Penn over 56.5
82.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Illinois over 78.5
84.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
82.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Penn over 57.5
79.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Illinois over 79.5
82.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Over 140.5
80.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Illinois -14.5
76.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Penn over 58.5
76.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Penn over 59.5
73.6%
1.09
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
Illinois over 80.5
79.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Illinois -15.5
74.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.9pp
Won
Penn over 60.5
70.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
Over 144.5
73.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-16.2pp
Won
Illinois over 81.5
76.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.3pp
Won
Over 143.5
75.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.1pp
Won
Over 145.5
71.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.0pp
Won
Illinois over 82.5
73.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-18.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.