Incarnate Word will host Chicago State on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Incarnate Word the favourite, rating them 84% to win largely because their season record of 0-1 shows a points per game of 60.0 against 91.0 allowed, while Chicago State's 0-1 record shows 59.0 points per game against 109.0 allowed; the model therefore projects a 80-69 score, 148.5 total points, and a home line of -8.5 with a 60% chance the home team covers, and a 143.5 total line with a 62% chance of the over, while the overtime probability is 3%. Incarnate Word's only game this season was a 60-91 loss away on 2 November 2026, and they have won 2 of their last five games, including a 72-60 home win over Lamar on 28 February 2026, while Chicago State's lone game was a 59-109 loss away on 2 November 2026 and they have won only 1 of their last five, with a 75-79 loss to LIU Sharks on 4 March 2026; the projected outcome reflects the stark contrast in defensive performance and recent form.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Incarnate Word winLost
84.1%fair 1.19
Best odds1.28
Implied76.9%
Edge+7.2pp
Chicago State winWon
15.9%fair 6.28
Best odds4.15
Implied23.1%
Edge-7.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Under 138.5
Over 138.5
72.7%
@ 1.44+7.5pp
Under 138.5
27.3%
@ 2.75-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Under 143.5
Over 143.5
61.6%
@ 1.91+11.6pp
Under 143.5
38.4%
@ 2.00-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
49.5%
@ 2.40+10.2pp
Under 148.5
50.5%
@ 1.53-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Incarnate Word total 72Actual: Incarnate Word under 72
Over 72
79.5%
Under 72
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Incarnate Word total 76 · main lineActual: Incarnate Word under 76
Over 76
65.9%
@ 1.85+15.8pp
Under 76
34.1%
@ 1.86-15.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Incarnate Word total 80Actual: Incarnate Word under 80
Over 80
49.7%
Under 80
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 64Actual: Chicago State over 64
Over 64
67.5%
Under 64
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 68 · main lineActual: Chicago State under 68
Over 68
51.7%
@ 1.87+1.9pp
Under 68
48.3%
@ 1.85-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Chicago State total 72Actual: Chicago State under 72
Over 72
35.7%
Under 72
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Incarnate Word -11.5Actual: Chicago State +11.5
INCA -11.5
49.4%
@ 2.60+11.8pp
CHIC +11.5
50.6%
@ 1.52-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
INCA
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.35
CHIC
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
Spread Incarnate Word -8.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State +8.5
INCA -8.5
60.2%
@ 2.00+10.6pp
CHIC +8.5
39.8%
@ 1.91-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
INCA
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.83
CHIC
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Incarnate Word -5.5Actual: Chicago State +5.5
INCA -5.5
70.5%
@ 1.67+13.5pp
CHIC +5.5
29.5%
@ 2.25-13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
INCA
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.55
CHIC
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Incarnate WordChicago State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Chicago State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Haven Chargers
#250
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A07/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H09/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H13/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A05/03
NCAA
Texas
#13
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A03/11
NCAA
72.8Avg total
34.7Scored
38.1Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)
34.5
38.9
73.4
-4.5
30%
37%
Last 30 at home (11)
33.9
35.9
69.8
-2.0
36%
18%
Last 30 away (19)
34.8
40.7
75.5
-5.9
26%
47%
Last 10 (10)
34.7
38.1
72.8
-3.4
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
35.0
39.4
74.4
-4.4
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)
33.7
39.1
72.8
-5.5
23%
35%
vs Similar ◀ (3)
40.3
41.0
81.3
-0.7
67%
67%
vs Weaker (1)
38.0
28.0
66.0
+10.0
100%
0%
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Chicago State win
INCA win
no forecast
@ 1.47
CHIC win
no forecast
@ 2.67
2nd half Spread Incarnate Word -3.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State +3.5
INCA -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
CHIC +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Chicago State (regulation)
INCA
no forecast
@ 1.52
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
CHIC
no forecast
@ 2.72
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Incarnate Word over 74.5
70.7%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+18.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -5.5
70.5%
1.61
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.55
-
-
+13.5pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -5
72.9%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word +1.5
85.6%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -4
76.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 73.5
74.1%
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 71.5
80.1%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -4.5
73.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -3
78.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -3.5
76.8%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word (regulation)
82.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.28
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -2.5
79.2%
1.36
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -2
81.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 72.5
77.2%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -1.5
82.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Lost
Incarnate Word -1
83.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 70.5
82.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Incarnate Word over 69.5
85.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Over 139.5
70.6%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Over 138.5
72.7%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Incarnate Word win
84.1%
1.25
SBO
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.26
Bet365
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
+7.2pp
Lost
Over 138
74.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Over 139
72.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
Over 136.5
76.6%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
Over 137.5
74.7%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
Over 137
76.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.7pp
-
Chicago State under 74.5
72.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Chicago State over 53.5
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Chicago State under 78.5
83.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Chicago State under 82.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Chicago State under 80.5
87.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 96.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Incarnate Word under 94.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Chicago State over 55.5
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Chicago State over 61.5
75.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Chicago State over 59.5
81.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Chicago State under 76.5
78.4%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Chicago State over 54.5
91.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
91.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Chicago State over 57.5
86.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
85.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
Chicago State over 58.5
83.8%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Chicago State over 62.5
72.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 92.5
89.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Chicago State over 56.5
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
86.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 90.5
85.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Chicago State over 60.5
78.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
78.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 88.5
80.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 86.5
74.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Incarnate Word under 85.5
71.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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