Independiente de Oliva vs San Lorenzo Result & Analysis

Independiente de Oliva host San Lorenzo on 14 November 2026 in Liga A, and the Pythia model names the home side as the clear favourite, rating them 85% to win largely because their season record of 1-2, 92.0 points per game and 89.0 points allowed per game outpaces San Lorenzo's 2-5 record, 70.7 points per game and 79.1 points allowed per game; Independiente's recent 5-game stretch of 2-3 and a 108-93 win over Lanus contrast with San Lorenzo's 1-4 stretch and a 70-65 win over Regatas. In the eight meetings between the clubs, Independiente has won five to San Lorenzo's three, with the last encounter on 29 January 2026 ending 80-69 for the home team. Pythia projects a 87-76 score, 162.7 total points, and gives Independiente an 85% chance to win and a 71% probability to cover the -5.5 line, while San Lorenzo has a 15% chance to win and a 55% chance of the over on the 160.5 line; the game has a 3% overtime probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Independiente de Oliva winWon

84.7%fair 1.18

Best odds1.31

Implied71.5%

Edge+13.2pp

San Lorenzo winLost

15.3%fair 6.55

Best odds3.40

Implied28.5%

Edge-13.2pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Independiente de Oliva Argentina

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormOliva

Date

Competition

La Union

#10

83-78

73avg 77

H01/05

Liga A

La Union

#10

97-92

88avg 77

H03/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

66-78

-12

54avg 77

A09/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

72-77

-5

57avg 77

A10/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

78-76

66avg 77

H14/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

74-66

64avg 77

H16/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

71-81

-10

55avg 77

A19/05

Liga A

Ferro

#16

92-97

-5

86avg 77

H09/10

Liga A

Lanus

#12

108-93

108

+15

106avg 77

H20/10

Liga A

Gimnasia

76-77 OT

-1

no box

H06/11

Liga A

24-12

14-27

17-20

28-19

25-20

21-25

32-25

19-22

16-23

21-25

23-16

6-14

20-15

17-16

11-30

24-16

25-21

22-16

16-21

15-18

19-19

19-22

13-15

23-10

18-23

22-21

18-18

13-19

28-33

23-14

23-27

18-23

26-18

34-22

25-25

23-28

21-19

22-15

6-14

13-14

163.2Avg total

81.7Scored

81.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (3)	92.0	89.0	181.0	+3.0	33%
Season at home (3)	92.0	89.0	181.0	+3.0	33%
Season away	no games
Last 10 (10)	81.7	81.5	163.2	+0.2	50%
Last 5 (5)	84.2	82.8	167.0	+1.4	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	102.0	110.0	212.0	-8.0	0%
vs Similar (19)	83.1	86.1	169.1	-3.0	42%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	92.1	86.6	178.7	+5.5	60%

This opponent (San Lorenzo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

San Lorenzo Argentina

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormLorenzo

Date

Competition

Racing de Chivilcoy

#14

66-80

-14

56avg 68

A12/04

Liga A

Argentino

#19

70-80

-10

62avg 68

A15/04

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

70-76

-6

64avg 68

A18/04

Liga A

Gimnasia

89-73

+16

84avg 68

H09/10

Liga A

Penarol

85-92

-7

70avg 68

H17/10

Liga A

Obera TC

#10

73-78

-5

no box

H18/10

Liga A

Platense

#11

58-80

-22

47avg 68

H28/10

Liga A

Regatas

#15

70-65

no box

H07/11

Liga A

San Martin

#18

42-75

-33

no box

H08/11

Liga A

Atenas

55-81

-26

no box

A13/11

Liga A

14-17

19-28

19-16

14-19

16-21

21-26

9-18

24-15

17-21

18-19

14-20

21-16

20-22

18-18

29-14

22-19

22-28

22-17

18-26

23-21

18-21

26-25

14-17

15-15

18-16

18-28

16-22

6-14

14-20

17-11

13-20

26-14

8-20

17-17

8-21

9-17

17-24

9-28

12-14

17-15

145.8Avg total

67.8Scored

78.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	67.4	77.7	145.1	-10.3	29%
Season at home (6)	69.5	77.2	146.7	-7.7	33%
Season away (1)	55.0	81.0	136.0	-26.0	0%
Last 10 (10)	67.8	78.0	145.8	-10.2	20%
Last 5 (5)	59.6	75.8	135.4	-16.2	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	74.8	81.0	155.7	-6.2	29%
vs Similar (8)	80.9	80.9	161.8	+0.0	50%
vs Weaker (1)	70.0	80.0	150.0	-10.0	0%

This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 155.5Actual: Over 155.5

Over 155.5

66.6%

@ 1.52+4.9pp

Under 155.5

33.4%

@ 2.42-4.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.52

Betano

1.47

Under

Betano

2.42

Bet365

2.40

Over/Under 160.5 · main lineActual: Over 160.5

Over 160.5

54.8%

@ 1.83+3.8pp

Under 160.5

45.2%

@ 1.91-3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Marathon Be

1.82

Betano

1.80

WilliamHill

1.80

Under

WilliamHill

1.91

BetVictor

1.88

Betano

1.87

SBO

1.86

Bet365

1.83

Over/Under 165.5Actual: Over 165.5

Over 165.5

42.6%

@ 2.40+3.8pp

Under 165.5

57.4%

@ 1.52-3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.40

Betano

2.35

Under

Bet365

1.52

Marathon Be

1.51

Betano

1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Independiente de Oliva total 79.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva over 79.5

Over 79.5

78.0%

@ 1.40+12.4pp

Under 79.5

22.0%

@ 2.80-12.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.40

Bet365

1.38

1xBet

1.36

Under

Bet365

2.80

Betano

2.67

1xBet

2.50

Independiente de Oliva total 83.5 · main lineActual: Independiente de Oliva over 83.5

Over 83.5

64.4%

@ 1.83+12.7pp

Under 83.5

35.6%

@ 1.93-12.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.78

Betano

1.75

Marathon Be

1.75

1xBet

1.67

Under

Betano

1.93

BetVictor

1.91

Marathon Be

1.90

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.78

Independiente de Oliva total 87.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva over 87.5

Over 87.5

48.7%

@ 2.37+10.0pp

Under 87.5

51.3%

@ 1.57-10.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.37

1xBet

2.28

Bet365

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.50

1xBet

1.41

San Lorenzo total 71.5Actual: San Lorenzo over 71.5

Over 71.5

64.8%

Under 71.5

35.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

San Lorenzo total 75.5 · main lineActual: San Lorenzo over 75.5

Over 75.5

49.3%

@ 1.83-3.8pp

Under 75.5

50.7%

@ 1.98+3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.70

1xBet

1.62

Under

Betano

1.98

1xBet

1.84

Bet365

1.83

San Lorenzo total 79.5Actual: San Lorenzo over 79.5

Over 79.5

34.2%

@ 2.30-5.6pp

Under 79.5

65.8%

@ 1.52+5.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.30

1xBet

2.19

Under

Betano

1.52

1xBet

1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Independiente de Oliva -8.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -8.5

INDE -8.5

61.3%

@ 2.17+14.0pp

SAN +8.5

38.7%

@ 1.80-14.0pp

Best 5 market prices

INDE

Bet365

2.17

Betfair

2.00

Betano

1.93

SBO

1.93

Marathon Be

1.93

SAN

Betfair

1.80

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.75

SBO

1.73

Marathon Be

1.73

Spread Independiente de Oliva -5.5 · main lineActual: Independiente de Oliva -5.5

INDE -5.5

71.5%

@ 1.83+16.9pp

SAN +5.5

28.5%

@ 2.12-16.9pp

Best 5 market prices

INDE

Betfair

1.83

Bet365

1.76

Betano

1.62

Marathon Be

1.61

1xBet

1.54

SAN

Betano

2.12

1xBet

2.08

Bet365

1.95

Betfair

1.83

Spread Independiente de Oliva -2.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -2.5

INDE -2.5

80.0%

@ 1.51+17.7pp

SAN +2.5

20.0%

@ 2.65-17.7pp

Best 5 market prices

INDE

Bet365

1.51

1xBet

1.44

Betano

1.40

SAN

Betano

2.65

Bet365

2.50

1xBet

2.30

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Independiente de OlivaSan Lorenzo

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.75
Last 30 (30)	21.5	22.7	44.2	-1.2	40%	67%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.1	21.2	43.3	+0.9	53%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	20.9	24.1	45.1	-3.2	27%	73%
Last 10 (10)	22.2	20.3	42.5	+1.9	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	22.4	22.4	44.8	+0.0	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	13.0	25.0	38.0	-12.0	0%	0%
vs Similar (19)	22.0	23.3	45.3	-1.3	42%	74%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	21.4	21.3	42.7	+0.1	40%	60%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.75
Last 30 (30)	18.2	20.7	38.9	-2.4	23%	40%
Last 30 at home (19)	18.7	20.9	39.6	-2.3	26%	47%
Last 30 away (11)	17.5	20.2	37.6	-2.7	18%	27%
Last 10 (10)	16.4	21.0	37.4	-4.6	10%	30%
Last 5 (5)	15.0	20.2	35.2	-5.2	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	18.6	21.6	40.2	-3.0	24%	48%
vs Similar (8)	17.5	18.1	35.6	-0.6	25%	25%
vs Weaker (1)	16.0	21.0	37.0	-5.0	0%	0%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.5
Last 30 (30)	23.0	20.6	43.6	+2.4	60%	67%
Last 30 at home (15)	24.2	21.5	45.7	+2.7	60%	73%
Last 30 away (15)	21.7	19.7	41.5	+2.0	60%	60%
Last 10 (10)	21.5	20.3	41.8	+1.2	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	24.0	18.8	42.8	+5.2	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	31.0	12.0	43.0	+19.0	100%	100%
vs Similar (19)	21.6	21.1	42.7	+0.5	53%	63%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	24.8	20.5	45.3	+4.3	70%	70%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.5
Last 30 (30)	19.2	22.3	41.5	-3.1	27%	53%
Last 30 at home (19)	19.4	22.5	41.9	-3.1	26%	58%
Last 30 away (11)	18.8	21.9	40.7	-3.1	27%	45%
Last 10 (10)	18.5	21.7	40.2	-3.2	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	17.4	21.8	39.2	-4.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	18.5	22.1	40.7	-3.6	24%	48%
vs Similar (8)	20.8	22.2	43.0	-1.5	38%	62%
vs Weaker (1)	21.0	26.0	47.0	-5.0	0%	100%

Independiente de OlivaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

La Union

#10

38-39

-1

H01/05

Liga A

La Union

#10

46-45

H03/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

37-48

-11

A09/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

37-31

A10/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

47-37

+10

H14/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

38-41

-3

H16/05

Liga A

Gimnasia

40-44

-4

A19/05

Liga A

Ferro

#16

51-47

H09/10

Liga A

Lanus

#12

60-40

+20

H20/10

Liga A

Gimnasia

43-34

H06/11

Liga A

84.3Avg total

43.7Scored

40.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 77
Last 30 (30)	44.5	43.3	87.7	+1.2	47%	87%
Last 30 at home (15)	46.3	42.7	88.9	+3.6	60%	87%
Last 30 away (15)	42.7	43.9	86.5	-1.2	33%	87%
Last 10 (10)	43.7	40.6	84.3	+3.1	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	46.4	41.2	87.6	+5.2	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	44.0	37.0	81.0	+7.0	100%	100%
vs Similar (19)	43.6	44.4	87.9	-0.8	37%	89%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	46.2	41.8	88.0	+4.4	60%	80%

This opponent (San Lorenzo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

San LorenzoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Racing de Chivilcoy

#14

33-45

-12

A12/04

Liga A

Argentino

#19

37-47

-10

A15/04

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

35-40

-5

A18/04

Liga A

Gimnasia

38-40

-2

H09/10

Liga A

Penarol

44-45

-1

H17/10

Liga A

Obera TC

#10

44-46

-2

H18/10

Liga A

Platense

#11

36-44

-8

H28/10

Liga A

Regatas

#15

31-31

H07/11

Liga A

San Martin

#18

25-37

-12

H08/11

Liga A

Atenas

26-52

-26

A13/11

Liga A

77.6Avg total

34.9Scored

42.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 77
Last 30 (30)	37.4	43.0	80.4	-5.5	23%	63%
Last 30 at home (19)	38.1	43.5	81.6	-5.4	21%	74%
Last 30 away (11)	36.3	42.1	78.4	-5.8	27%	45%
Last 10 (10)	34.9	42.7	77.6	-7.8	0%	70%
Last 5 (5)	32.4	42.0	74.4	-9.6	0%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	37.1	43.8	80.9	-6.6	19%	67%
vs Similar (8)	38.2	40.4	78.6	-2.1	38%	50%
vs Weaker (1)	37.0	47.0	84.0	-10.0	0%	100%

This opponent (Independiente de Oliva) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Independiente de Oliva win

INDE win

no forecast

@ 1.47

SAN win

no forecast

@ 2.80

1st half Spread Independiente de Oliva -3.5 · main lineActual: Independiente de Oliva -3.5

INDE -3.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

SAN +3.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

1st half Over/Under 77 · main lineActual: Over 77

Over

no forecast

@ 1.84

Under

no forecast

@ 1.84

Independiente de Oliva 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Independiente de Oliva over 41.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.92

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

San Lorenzo 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: San Lorenzo over 37.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.92

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half: INDE + total 79.5

INDE & over

no forecast

@ 2.90

INDE & under

no forecast

@ 3.00

1st half: Draw + total 79.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 29.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: SAN + total 79.5

SAN & over

no forecast

@ 4.75

SAN & under

no forecast

@ 5.00

1st half Over/Under 78.25Actual: Over 78.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.89

Under

no forecast

@ 1.74

1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.43

Under

no forecast

@ 2.65

1st half Spread Independiente de Oliva -4.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -4.5

INDE -4.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

SAN +4.5

no forecast

@ 1.86

1st half Spread Independiente de Oliva -2.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -2.5

INDE -2.5

no forecast

@ 1.82

SAN +2.5

no forecast

@ 1.97

1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

1st half Spread Independiente de Oliva -5.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -5.5

INDE -5.5

no forecast

@ 2.40

SAN +5.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Spread Independiente de Oliva -1.5Actual: Independiente de Oliva -1.5

INDE -1.5

no forecast

@ 1.75

SAN +1.5

no forecast

@ 2.14

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Independiente de Oliva (regulation)

INDE

no forecast

@ 1.52

Draw

no forecast

@ 17.50

SAN

no forecast

@ 3.00

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	20.6	21.3	41.9	-0.8	30%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	21.0	20.6	41.6	+0.4	27%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	20.1	22.1	42.2	-1.9	33%	60%
Last 10 (10)	18.4	21.1	39.5	-2.7	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	17.0	19.8	36.8	-2.8	0%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	21.0	26.0	47.0	-5.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (19)	20.1	21.3	41.3	-1.2	32%	53%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	21.5	21.0	42.5	+0.5	30%	70%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	19.2	19.0	38.2	+0.3	50%	33%
Last 30 at home (19)	20.0	18.8	38.8	+1.2	53%	42%
Last 30 away (11)	17.9	19.3	37.2	-1.4	45%	18%
Last 10 (10)	15.2	18.8	34.0	-3.6	20%	20%
Last 5 (5)	12.6	18.8	31.4	-6.2	0%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	19.1	18.3	37.4	+0.8	48%	29%
vs Similar (8)	20.9	20.8	41.6	+0.1	62%	50%
vs Weaker (1)	9.0	18.0	27.0	-9.0	0%	0%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.75
Last 30 (30)	20.0	20.3	40.3	-0.3	40%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	21.8	21.5	43.3	+0.3	40%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	18.2	19.2	37.4	-1.0	40%	27%
Last 10 (10)	18.2	18.3	36.5	-0.1	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	18.0	18.8	36.8	-0.8	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	28.0	30.0	58.0	-2.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (19)	18.9	19.5	38.5	-0.6	42%	37%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	21.2	20.9	42.1	+0.3	40%	60%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.75
Last 30 (30)	19.1	18.7	37.8	+0.4	53%	30%
Last 30 at home (19)	19.1	17.9	37.1	+1.2	47%	37%
Last 30 away (11)	19.1	20.1	39.2	-1.0	64%	18%
Last 10 (10)	17.7	16.5	34.2	+1.2	60%	20%
Last 5 (5)	14.6	15.0	29.6	-0.4	40%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	17.9	18.5	36.4	-0.7	48%	29%
vs Similar (8)	21.8	19.8	41.5	+2.0	62%	38%
vs Weaker (1)	24.0	15.0	39.0	+9.0	100%	0%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 81.5
Last 30 (30)	40.6	41.7	82.2	-1.1	33%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	42.8	42.1	84.9	+0.7	53%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	38.3	41.3	79.6	-2.9	13%	47%
Last 10 (10)	36.6	39.4	76.0	-2.8	30%	40%
Last 5 (5)	35.0	38.6	73.6	-3.6	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	49.0	56.0	105.0	-7.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (19)	39.0	40.8	79.8	-1.8	32%	47%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)	42.7	41.9	84.6	+0.8	40%	70%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 81.5
Last 30 (30)	38.3	37.7	76.0	+0.6	47%	23%
Last 30 at home (19)	39.1	36.7	75.8	+2.4	63%	26%
Last 30 away (11)	37.0	39.4	76.4	-2.4	18%	18%
Last 10 (10)	32.9	35.3	68.2	-2.4	20%	20%
Last 5 (5)	27.2	33.8	61.0	-6.6	20%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	37.0	36.9	73.8	+0.1	48%	24%
vs Similar (8)	42.6	40.5	83.1	+2.1	50%	25%
vs Weaker (1)	33.0	33.0	66.0	+0.0	0%	0%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

INDE win + total 160.5

🔒 Pro

SAN win + total 160.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: INDE leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: SAN leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (INDE:SAN ): INDE wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Independiente de Oliva -4	76.9%	1.62	Bet365 1.62	-	-	-	-	+19.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -5	73.8%	1.64	Bet365 1.71	Marathon Bet 1.56	-	-	-	+19.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -3	79.5%	1.54	Bet365 1.54	-	-	-	-	+18.6pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -2	82.5%	1.46	Bet365 1.46	-	-	-	-	+18.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +2.5	88.2%	1.32	Betano 1.33	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	+18.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 82	70.6%	1.64	1xBet 1.64	-	-	-	-	+18.1pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +2	88.0%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+18.0pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -6	70.5%	1.74	Bet365 1.83	Marathon Bet 1.65	-	-	-	+17.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -2.5	80.0%	1.45	Bet365 1.51	1xBet 1.44	Betano 1.40	-	-	+17.7pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -1	84.5%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	-	-	+17.5pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -1.5	83.0%	1.39	Bet365 1.42	1xBet 1.41	Betano 1.35	-	-	+17.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +3.5	89.6%	1.28	Betano 1.34	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	+17.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -5.5	71.5%	1.67	Betfair 1.83	Bet365 1.76	Betano 1.62	Marathon Bet 1.61	1xBet 1.54	+16.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 78.5	80.8%	1.40	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.37	-	-	-	+16.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +1	86.0%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+16.0pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -4.5	74.6%	1.55	Bet365 1.66	Betano 1.55	Marathon Bet 1.53	1xBet 1.45	-	+15.2pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva -3.5	77.6%	1.48	Bet365 1.58	Betano 1.47	1xBet 1.38	-	-	+15.1pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +1.5	86.2%	1.29	Bet365 1.31	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	+14.8pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva (regulation)	82.8%	1.30	Betano 1.33	1xBet 1.28	Marathon Bet 1.28	-	-	+13.5pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva win	84.7%	1.29	Betano 1.31	WilliamHill 1.30	Bet365 1.30	BetVictor 1.30	1xBet 1.29	+13.2pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 80.5	74.9%	1.43	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.41	-	-	-	+12.5pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 79.5	78.0%	1.38	Betano 1.40	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.36	-	-	+12.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 73.5	91.4%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+11.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 81.5	71.6%	1.51	Betano 1.53	Bet365 1.52	1xBet 1.49	-	-	+11.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 72.5	92.8%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+11.4pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 77.5	83.4%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+10.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +8.5	95.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 74.5	89.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+10.2pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 75.5	87.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 70.5	95.1%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+9.0pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 81.5	72.6%	1.40	1xBet 1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Lost
Independiente de Oliva +13.5	97.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 68.5	96.8%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 71.5	94.1%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 66.5	97.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 69.5	96.0%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 67.5	97.4%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 82.5	75.7%	1.35	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Lost
Independiente de Oliva +10.5	96.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +18.5	99.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva over 65.5	98.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva +4.5	91.1%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 87.5	87.8%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Lost
Independiente de Oliva +15.5	98.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Over 153	72.4%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Over 154	70.3%	1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.9%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Over 152.5	73.0%	1.36	Bet365 1.36	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 153.5	71.0%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.39	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 135.5	95.2%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Over 145.5	85.2%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Over 150.5	76.9%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 92.5	94.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Over 140.5	91.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 85.5	83.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Lost
San Lorenzo under 90.5	92.4%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
San Lorenzo under 86.5	85.8%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Lost
San Lorenzo under 84.5	81.2%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Lost
San Lorenzo under 88.5	89.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Lost
San Lorenzo over 65.5	83.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Under 185.5	91.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Lost
San Lorenzo over 62.5	89.9%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
San Lorenzo +24.5	86.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Lost
San Lorenzo over 68.5	75.1%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
San Lorenzo over 64.5	85.9%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Won
San Lorenzo over 66.5	81.0%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Won
Under 180.5	86.2%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Lost
Independiente de Oliva under 95.5	79.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	-0.6pp	Lost
Under 175.5	78.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-0.9pp	Lost
San Lorenzo over 67.5	78.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	-1.3pp	Won
Independiente de Oliva under 94.5	76.9%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Lost
San Lorenzo +19.5	75.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-2.0pp	Lost
San Lorenzo +21.5	80.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-4.7pp	Lost
Independiente de Oliva under 93.5	73.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-5.1pp	Lost

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Independiente de Olivatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Independiente de Oliva: 80.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀50%

🏀🏀🏀30%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game

47%

34%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.9	20.0	52.8%	54.4%	40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.3	8.0	29.3%	32.6%	24.0
🏀 Free throws	22.3	16.0	71.7%	72.7%	16.0

They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

San Lorenzotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

San Lorenzo: 77.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀29%

🏀22%

🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 29% of the points

🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 22% of the points

League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game

47%

34%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.5	19.0	55.1%	54.4%	38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	7.5	30.1%	32.6%	22.5
🏀 Free throws	22.7	17.0	74.9%	72.7%	17.0

They take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.3	18.5	55.6%	54.4%	37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.2	8.6	29.5%	32.6%	25.8
🏀 Free throws	25.6	19.6	76.6%	72.7%	19.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.3	19.2	52.9%	54.4%	38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	8.9	35.0%	32.6%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	22.3	16.6	74.4%	72.7%	16.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.0	21.3	54.7%	54.4%	42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.9	9.3	32.4%	32.6%	28.0
🏀 Free throws	20.7	15.6	75.3%	72.7%	15.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.4	18.6	54.1%	54.4%	37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	8.4	31.4%	32.6%	25.3
🏀 Free throws	21.4	15.1	70.8%	72.7%	15.1

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.7	18.5	56.5%	54.4%	37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.1	10.4	32.5%	32.6%	31.2
🏀 Free throws	23.8	18.0	75.7%	72.7%	18.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.9	19.1	53.4%	54.4%	38.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.0	8.7	33.5%	32.6%	26.1
🏀 Free throws	23.7	17.2	72.7%	72.7%	17.2

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Independiente de Oliva

LWLLWWLLWW

San Lorenzo

LLWLLLWLLL

League position

#17

-3.2

Net rating

-6.0

107.5

Offensive rating

110.0

110.8

Defensive rating

116.0

49.1%

Effective FG%

50.9%

50.2%

Opp. effective FG%

52.8%

0.0%

Turnover %

0.0%

0.34

Free-throw rate

0.38

29.3%

3-point %

30.1%

43.9%

Assist %

50.9%

50%

Form (last 10/10)

20%

Profile

■ Independiente de Oliva ■ San Lorenzo

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Independiente de Oliva wins

San Lorenzo wins

Date	Game	Score
29/01/26	San Lorenzo v Independiente de Oliva	69-80
17/10/25	Independiente de Oliva v San Lorenzo	105-71
05/05/25	San Lorenzo v Independiente de Oliva	94-77
08/11/24	Independiente de Oliva v San Lorenzo	88-98
06/03/24	Independiente de Oliva v San Lorenzo	86-63
17/11/23	San Lorenzo v Independiente de Oliva	92-68
19/02/23	Independiente de Oliva v San Lorenzo	83-70
06/02/23	San Lorenzo v Independiente de Oliva	78-85

Independiente de Olivalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
06/11/26	H	Gimnasia	76-77 OT
20/10/26	H	Lanus	108-93
09/10/26	H	Ferro	92-97
19/05/26	A	Gimnasia	71-81
16/05/26	H	Gimnasia	74-66
14/05/26	H	Gimnasia	78-76
10/05/26	A	Gimnasia	72-77
09/05/26	A	Gimnasia	66-78
03/05/26	H	La Union	97-92
01/05/26	H	La Union	83-78

San Lorenzolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
13/11/26	A	Atenas	55-81
08/11/26	H	San Martin	42-75
07/11/26	H	Regatas	70-65
28/10/26	H	Platense	58-80
18/10/26	H	Obera TC	73-78
17/10/26	H	Penarol	85-92
09/10/26	H	Gimnasia	89-73
18/04/26	A	Obras Sanitarias	70-76
15/04/26	A	Argentino	70-80
12/04/26	A	Racing de Chivilcoy	66-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Independiente de Oliva

Liga A 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWL	33%
Home	LWL	33%
Away	-	-

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	3	3	-
Win %	33%	33%	-
Points / game	92.0	92.0	-
Allowed / game	89.0	89.0	-
Point differential	+3.0	+3.0	-
Avg total	181.0	181.0	-
Over 160.5	67%	67%	-
Win by 10+	33%	33%	-
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (2)	0% (2)	-
Overtime %	33%	33%	-

San Lorenzo

Liga A 2026-27

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWLL	29%
Home	LLLWL	33%
Away	L	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	6	1
Win %	29%	33%	0%
Points / game	67.4	69.5	55.0
Allowed / game	77.7	77.2	81.0
Point differential	-10.3	-7.7	-26.0
Avg total	145.1	146.7	136.0
Over 160.5	29%	33%	0%
Win by 10+	14%	17%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	50% (2)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Quimsa	8	7	1	88%	85.2	75.8	+9.5
2	Penarol	8	7	1	88%	82.1	74.8	+7.4
3	Gimnasia	12	9	3	75%	77.2	74.0	+3.2
4	Instituto de Cordoba	8	6	2	75%	77.9	76.5	+1.4
5	Atenas	7	5	2	71%	84.4	79.0	+5.4
6	Boca Juniors	8	5	3	62%	89.5	83.2	+6.2
7	Olimpico	8	4	4	50%	86.8	85.4	+1.4
8	Argentino	8	4	4	50%	77.9	79.5	-1.6
9	Obera TC	7	3	4	43%	80.0	83.1	-3.1
10	Platense	8	3	5	38%	76.9	78.6	-1.8
11	Lanus	11	4	7	36%	78.5	79.3	-0.7
12	Independiente de Oliva	3	1	2	33%	92.0	89.0	+3.0
13	Racing de Chivilcoy	9	3	6	33%	79.4	82.8	-3.3
14	La Union	6	2	4	33%	78.2	83.2	-5.0
15	Regatas	7	2	5	29%	73.3	75.7	-2.4
16	San Lorenzo	7	2	5	29%	67.4	77.7	-10.3
17	Ferro	8	2	6	25%	81.5	85.6	-4.1
18	San Martin	9	2	7	22%	81.6	87.4	-5.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Independiente de Oliva	21	32	30	39	122
San Lorenzo	27	11	24	27	89

← all games of the day

Independiente de Oliva vs San Lorenzo Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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