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Iona vs Vermont Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 56-55
21-29 35-26
Position#211
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Iona 🏆
USA
Vs
47%
53%
■ IONA 47%■ VERM 53%
Pythia win probability
Projected 70-71
Projected total 141.6
Vermont
USA
Position#234
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Iona v Vermont
02 Nov 2026
IONA56
VERM55
15 Nov 2024
IONA62
VERM59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The NCAA matchup on 2 November 2026 pits Iona against Vermont in a contest that feels almost evenly matched, with no clear favourite emerging from the data. Iona has gone 3-2 in its last five games, including a 91-80 loss to Sacred Heart at home, a 69-65 win over Manhattan away, and a 80-58 victory at home over Rider, while Vermont has a stronger 4-1 run, dropping only a 74-59 defeat to UMBC but winning 63-54 at home against NJIT and 77-57 at home over Bryant University. Historically, Iona has dominated the series, winning all three meetings, most recently 83-78 on 20 December 2025. Pythia rates Vermont as the favourite with a 53% chance of winning versus Iona's 47%, projecting a close 70-71 score for a total of 141.6 points. The home team line is -1.0, with a 45% probability of covering, while the over/under line of 146.5 carries a 38% chance of exceeding. The model also flags a 5% likelihood of overtime. Vermont's recent 77-57 home win over Bryant University suggests the game could tilt in their favour, but Iona's 80-58 home triumph over Rider shows they can still challenge the odds.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iona winWon
46.6%fair 2.15
Best odds1.90
Implied50.0%
Edge-3.4pp
Vermont winLost
53.4%fair 1.87
Best odds1.95
Implied50.0%
Edge+3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IonaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
L
70-71
70
71
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A06/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
76-83
76
83
-7
H08/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
69-63
69
63
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
68-70
68
70
-2
A15/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
72-64 OT
72
64
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
86-88 OT
86
88
-2
A22/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
80-58
80
58
+22
H28/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
69-65
69
65
+4
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
80-91
80
91
-11
H05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-34
35-37
47-40
25-39
34-39
42-44
34-24
35-39
30-34
38-36
29-31
32-30
33-36
35-32
40-30
40-28
35-26
34-39
29-34
51-57
147.4Avg total
74.2Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.273.2147.4+1.040%
Last 5 (5)77.473.2150.6+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)65.087.0152.0-22.025%
vs Similar (15)73.776.3149.9-2.640%
vs Weaker (11)73.862.2136.0+11.682%
VermontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
80-57
80
57
+23
H07/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A12/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
90-63
90
63
+27
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
69-56
69
56
+13
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
59-74
59
74
-15
A14/03
NCAA
1H
2H
42-29
38-28
35-32
38-33
39-27
51-36
26-38
36-37
30-30
40-34
34-30
32-34
31-26
38-30
38-27
39-30
26-18
37-36
28-30
31-44
133.8Avg total
70.9Scored
62.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.962.9133.8+8.080%
Last 5 (5)66.861.0127.8+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)64.870.2135.0-5.525%
vs Similar (5)75.476.2151.6-0.840%
vs Weaker (21)71.365.7137.0+5.671%
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
49.7%
@ 1.53-11.0pp
Under 141.5
50.3%
@ 2.40+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
37.8%
@ 2.00-10.5pp
Under 146.5
62.2%
@ 1.85+10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.77
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
27.1%
@ 2.75-7.7pp
Under 151.5
72.9%
@ 1.44+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40

📊 3. Team Totals

Iona total 69Actual: Iona under 69
Over 69
55.1%
Under 69
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iona total 73 · main lineActual: Iona under 73
Over 73
39.2%
@ 1.85-10.8pp
Under 73
60.8%
@ 1.85+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Iona total 77Actual: Iona under 77
Over 77
25.0%
Under 77
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vermont total 68.5Actual: Vermont under 68.5
Over 68.5
60.6%
@ 1.39-4.6pp
Under 68.5
39.4%
@ 2.60+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Vermont total 72.5 · main lineActual: Vermont under 72.5
Over 72.5
45.2%
@ 1.90-4.8pp
Under 72.5
54.8%
@ 1.88+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Vermont total 76.5Actual: Vermont under 76.5
Over 76.5
30.5%
@ 2.50-5.7pp
Under 76.5
69.5%
@ 1.42+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Iona -4Actual: Vermont +4
IONA -4
34.0%
@ 2.40-4.8pp
VERM +4
66.0%
@ 1.52+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
IONA
Bet365
2.40
VERM
Bet365
1.52
Spread Iona -1 · main linePush
IONA -1
45.0%
@ 1.86-5.0pp
VERM +1
55.0%
@ 1.86+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
IONA
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
VERM
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Spread Iona +2Actual: Iona +2
IONA +2
51.8%
@ 1.66-4.1pp
VERM -2
48.2%
@ 2.10+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
IONA
Bet365
1.66
VERM
Bet365
2.10

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: +4.2+4.22nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: +3.8+3.8
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: +4.2+4.22nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: +3.8+3.8
IonaVermont
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
IonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H31/01
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A06/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H08/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
34-24
34
24
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A15/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H28/02
NCAA
Manhattan
#296
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H05/03
NCAA
67.4Avg total
34.6Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)34.133.167.2+1.157%43%
Last 30 at home (15)35.431.166.5+4.367%53%
Last 30 away (15)32.935.067.9-2.147%33%
Last 10 (10)34.632.867.4+1.850%50%
Last 5 (5)33.231.464.6+1.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.241.270.5-12.00%50%
vs Similar (15)34.534.168.5+0.453%53%
vs Weaker (11)35.528.764.2+6.782%27%
VermontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H07/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H14/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A19/02
NCAA
NJIT
#220
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
26-18
26
18
+8
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A14/03
NCAA
61.6Avg total
32.9Scored
28.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)32.531.163.6+1.553%23%
Last 30 at home (16)32.929.962.8+3.162%19%
Last 30 away (14)32.132.464.5-0.443%29%
Last 10 (10)32.928.761.6+4.270%10%
Last 5 (5)31.426.257.6+5.280%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)28.533.061.5-4.50%0%
vs Similar (5)35.232.667.8+2.660%40%
vs Weaker (21)32.730.363.0+2.362%24%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vermont win
IONA win
no forecast
@ 1.87
VERM win
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Iona 0 · main lineActual: Vermont 0
IONA 0
no forecast
@ 1.81
VERM 0
no forecast
@ 1.89
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Iona 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Iona under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Vermont 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Vermont under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.70
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Iona -1.5Actual: Vermont +1.5
IONA -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
VERM +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Iona +1.5Actual: Vermont -1.5
IONA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
VERM -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Iona -2.5Actual: Vermont +2.5
IONA -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
VERM +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Iona +2.5Actual: Vermont -2.5
IONA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
VERM -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Spread Iona -3.5Actual: Vermont +3.5
IONA -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
VERM +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Iona +3.5Actual: Vermont -3.5
IONA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
VERM -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Iona (regulation)
IONA
no forecast
@ 1.93
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
VERM
no forecast
@ 2.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
IONA win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
VERM win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: IONA leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Iona under 76.572.6%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+10.3ppWon
Iona under 77.575.8%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+10.0ppWon
Iona under 78.578.7%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+9.6ppWon
Under 150.570.9%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45		---+8.0ppWon
Under 15070.3%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+7.8ppWon
Under 151.572.9%1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40		---+7.7ppWon
Under 153.576.7%1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31		---+7.5ppWon
Under 15172.4%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+7.4ppWon
Under 15274.4%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+7.4ppWon
Under 152.574.8%1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35		---+7.3ppWon
Vermont under 78.575.9%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+6.9ppWon
Vermont +981.2%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+6.5ppWon
Vermont +9.581.7%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+6.4ppWon
Vermont +878.7%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+6.3ppWon
Under 15376.3%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+6.3ppWon
Vermont +8.579.2%1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26		---+6.1ppWon
Vermont +6.573.7%1.37
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36		---+6.0ppWon
Vermont +7.576.6%1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.30		---+6.0ppWon
Vermont +775.9%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+5.9ppWon
Vermont +672.8%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+5.8ppWon
Vermont under 77.572.8%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+5.7ppWon
Vermont +5.570.6%1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42		---+5.7ppWon
Overtime: no94.6%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+4.9pp-
Iona +7.571.3%1.27
Betano
1.27		-----1.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Iona wins
0
Vermont wins
DateGameScore
20/12/25Vermont v Iona78-83
16/11/24Iona v Vermont62-59
19/11/22Vermont v Iona50-71
Ionalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HSacred Heart80-91
01/03/26AManhattan69-65
28/02/26HRider80-58
22/02/26AMerrimack Warriors86-88 OT
21/02/26HSt. Peters72-64 OT
15/02/26ANiagara68-70
14/02/26ACanisius69-63
08/02/26HMount St. Mary's76-83
06/02/26ASiena72-79
31/01/26HFairfield70-71
Vermontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/26AUMBC Retrievers59-74
10/03/26HNJIT63-54
07/03/26HBryant University77-57
04/03/26HAlbany Great Danes69-56
27/02/26HUMass Lowell66-64
22/02/26ANJIT70-64
19/02/26AUMBC Retrievers62-75
14/02/26HBryant University90-63
12/02/26ABinghamton73-65
07/02/26HNew Hampshire Wildcats80-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Iona
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 146.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Vermont
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 146.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Iona213556
Vermont292655
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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