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Italy vs Slovenia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 09 Sep 2023
Tip-off: 08:45
Final 85-89
18-15 23-27 19-28 25-19
Position#17
Record12-5
FormLWWWL
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game81.5
vs
Position#24
Record11-8
FormWWLLL
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game82.5
EuropeWorld CupWorld Cup - 7th place
Other2023
Meetings · Italy v Slovenia
07 Sep 2025
ITAL77
SLOV84
09 Sep 2023
ITAL85
SLOV89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Slovenia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spain
#7
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
85-84
85
84
+1
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
82-87
82
87
-5
H07/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
15-14
16-19
21-15
24-19
19-21
17-18
25-26
23-21
20-22
15-14
27-18
13-16
20-13
19-15
20-24
23-17
20-23
18-17
20-10
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
26-18
16-28
18-21
22-20
158.4Avg total
81.2Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)85.081.5166.5+3.571%
Season at home (8)83.479.8163.1+3.662%
Season away (9)86.483.0169.4+3.478%
Last 10 (10)81.277.2158.4+4.070%
Last 5 (5)81.078.0159.0+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)81.382.4163.7-1.140%
vs Similar ◀ (13)86.483.9170.3+2.562%
vs Weaker (7)86.972.1159.0+14.7100%
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SloveniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
W
81-75
81
75
+6
H14/11
World Cup
Estonia
#55
L
78-79
78
79
-1
A24/02
World Cup
Israel
#52
L
79-87
79
87
-8
H27/02
World Cup
Venezuela
#43
W
100-85
100
85
+15
H26/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
88-67
88
67
+21
A28/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
92-77
92
77
+15
H30/08
World Cup
Australia
#5
W
91-80
91
80
+11
H01/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
71-100
71
100
-29
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
89-100
89
100
-11
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
84-100
84
100
-16
A07/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
25-10
20-14
20-27
16-24
24-13
19-18
19-24
16-22
22-20
25-13
16-32
31-33
25-18
22-12
22-22
16-17
29-16
18-17
25-17
24-21
21-17
24-17
23-22
28-18
21-22
17-22
25-18
25-11
9-27
18-30
19-32
24-26
26-24
21-30
18-20
21-33
22-20
20-22
21-25
170.3Avg total
85.3Scored
85.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)84.782.5167.2+2.258%
Season at home (9)90.880.9171.7+9.978%
Season away (10)79.283.9163.1-4.740%
Last 10 (10)85.385.0170.3+0.350%
Last 5 (5)85.491.4176.8-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.290.8172.0-9.733%
vs Similar ◀ (14)86.983.1170.0+3.964%
vs Weaker (10)91.580.7172.2+10.870%
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -3.1-3.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: +3.7+3.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -3.1-3.1
ItalySlovenia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spain
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/09
World Cup
79.2Avg total
40.3Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.540.382.8+2.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.139.683.7+4.573%-
Last 30 away (15)40.941.181.9-0.247%-
Last 10 (10)40.338.979.2+1.460%-
Last 5 (5)41.640.281.8+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)41.341.282.5+0.140%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)40.840.481.2+0.462%-
vs Weaker (7)47.439.086.4+8.486%-
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SloveniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H14/11
World Cup
Estonia
#55
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A24/02
World Cup
Israel
#52
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H27/02
World Cup
Venezuela
#43
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H26/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A28/08
World Cup
Cape Verde
#45
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H30/08
World Cup
Australia
#5
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H01/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A07/09
World Cup
85.7Avg total
44.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.641.585.1+2.160%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.844.089.8+1.867%-
Last 30 away (15)41.439.080.4+2.453%-
Last 10 (10)44.141.685.7+2.560%-
Last 5 (5)44.243.888.0+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)41.341.382.7+0.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)43.042.685.6+0.457%-
vs Weaker (10)45.840.185.9+5.780%-
This opponent (Italy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
0
Slovenia wins
No previous meetings.
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/09/23HLatvia82-87
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87
25/08/23AAngola81-67
26/02/23ASpain72-68
23/02/23HUkraine85-75
14/11/22AGeorgia85-84
11/11/22HSpain84-88 OT
Slovenialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/09/23ALithuania84-100
06/09/23ACanada89-100
03/09/23AGermany71-100
01/09/23HAustralia91-80
30/08/23HCape Verde92-77
28/08/23AGeorgia88-67
26/08/23HVenezuela100-85
27/02/23HIsrael79-87
24/02/23AEstonia78-79
14/11/22HGermany81-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL71%
HomeLWLWL62%
AwayWWWWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %71%62%78%
Points / game85.083.486.4
Allowed / game81.579.883.0
Point differential+3.5+3.6+3.4
Avg total166.5163.1169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%25%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)25% (4)75% (4)
Overtime %12%12%11%
Slovenia
World Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL58%
HomeWLWWW78%
AwayLWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %58%78%40%
Points / game84.790.879.2
Allowed / game82.580.983.9
Point differential+2.2+9.9-4.7
Avg total167.2171.7163.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%56%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Russia330100%87.070.7+16.3
2 Germany1816289%83.872.1+11.7
3 Latvia2320387%85.273.8+11.4
4 Canada1916384%96.672.2+24.4
5 Australia1714382%86.063.4+22.6
6 South Sudan1714382%82.370.8+11.5
7 Lithuania1814478%81.271.9+9.3
8 Spain1713476%83.969.5+14.4
9 France1713476%81.166.8+14.2
10 Serbia1914574%87.177.0+10.1
11 Puerto Rico1511473%83.581.0+2.5
12 New Zealand1410471%91.675.2+16.4
13 Dominican Republic1712571%82.976.8+6.1
14 Italy1712571%85.081.5+3.5
15 Montenegro2014670%77.372.0+5.3
16 Belarus128467%80.267.2+13.0
17 Argentina128467%78.772.1+6.6
18 Lebanon1711665%86.679.4+7.3
19 Angola1711665%73.966.8+7.1
20 China1711665%78.774.4+4.3
21 Ivory Coast1711665%75.172.0+3.1
22 Finland1711665%82.581.4+1.2
23 Brazil159660%85.974.5+11.5
24 Greece159660%77.576.1+1.5
25 Mexico159660%83.182.5+0.5
26 Egypt1710759%76.169.2+6.8
27 Japan1710759%78.476.7+1.7
28 Senegal127558%72.566.0+6.5
29 Nigeria127558%69.564.5+5.0
30 Slovenia1911858%84.782.5+2.2
31 Iceland2112957%80.880.7+0.1
32 Georgia179853%79.179.8-0.7
33 Sweden168850%81.175.8+5.4
34 Ukraine126650%80.277.2+3.0
35 Belgium126650%72.069.4+2.6
36 Tunisia126650%64.362.5+1.8
37 Jordan168850%78.377.0+1.3
38 Portugal168850%70.971.6-0.7
39 Switzerland42250%62.263.2-1.0
40 Uruguay105550%71.974.2-2.3
41 Bosnia & Herzegovina126650%77.282.2-5.0
42 Hungary126650%72.679.5-6.9
43 Venezuela178947%76.472.5+3.8
44 Philippines157847%80.079.1+0.9
45 Cape Verde167944%72.474.8-2.3
46 Saudi Arabia125742%68.275.0-6.8
47 Kazakhstan125742%64.972.7-7.8
48 D.R. Congo125742%57.064.9-7.9
49 Mali52340%42.047.2-5.2
50 Turkey114736%77.575.1+2.4
51 Iran1761135%69.273.1-3.9
52 Israel124833%78.779.0-0.3
53 Poland62433%74.077.0-3.0
54 Cameroon124833%64.468.2-3.8
55 Estonia124833%72.581.4-8.9
56 Kosovo62433%75.885.2-9.3
57 Slovakia1651131%68.976.7-7.8
58 Colombia103730%77.091.8-14.8
59 Guinea123925%66.070.6-4.6
60 Czech Republic123925%73.280.7-7.5
61 Panama123925%68.578.7-10.2
62 Bahamas123925%77.691.9-14.3
63 North Macedonia102820%64.375.8-11.5
64 Luxembourg102820%76.388.1-11.8
65 Bulgaria61517%74.379.2-4.8
66 Croatia61517%77.083.2-6.2
67 Rwanda61517%56.765.2-8.5
68 Chile61517%66.075.7-9.7
69 Syria61517%69.379.3-10.0
70 Central African Republic61517%61.275.2-14.0
71 Uganda1221017%61.177.8-16.7
72 Albania61517%65.282.2-17.0
73 Bahrain1221017%63.483.7-20.2
74 Cyprus61517%59.080.2-21.2
75 Great Britain101910%69.783.2-13.5
76 Cuba4040%65.072.8-7.8
77 Netherlands110110%71.081.5-10.5
78 Denmark4040%69.584.5-15.0
79 Romania4040%69.889.5-19.8
80 India100100%61.189.5-28.4
81 Chinese Taipei6060%61.090.7-29.7
82 United States Virgin Islands6060%64.796.2-31.5
83 Indonesia6060%58.590.2-31.7
84 Paraguay6060%55.086.8-31.8
85 Kenya6060%42.574.8-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 85 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy1823192585
Slovenia1527281989
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