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Italy W vs Turkey W Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 24 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 76-74 (OT)
20-17 11-18 19-15 18-18 8-6
Position#6
Record7-2
FormWLWWW
Points / game68.8
Allowed / game59.4
Italy W 🏆
vs
Turkey W
Position#5
Record8-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game61.8
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenEuroBasket Women - Quarter-finals· Peace and Friendship Stadium
Women2024Neutral venue
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Turkey W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Italy WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Montenegro W
#16
L
49-63
49
63
-14
no box
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
76-67
76
67
+9
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
70-53
70
53
+17
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
68-47
68
47
+21
59avg 61
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
45-56
45
56
-11
28avg 61
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
79-60
79
60
+19
75avg 61
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
69-74
69
74
-5
62avg 61
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
70-61
70
61
+9
66avg 61
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
77-66
77
66
+11
69avg 61
H19/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
65-51
65
51
+14
54avg 61
H21/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-22
14-13
9-13
18-15
24-10
15-21
14-17
23-19
21-8
15-19
12-12
22-14
25-17
8-9
17-6
18-15
20-23
8-10
7-9
10-14
23-21
15-17
22-6
19-16
27-23
12-18
15-13
15-20
19-18
20-12
17-13
14-18
22-17
23-5
16-26
16-18
18-14
16-9
12-19
19-9
126.6Avg total
66.8Scored
59.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)68.859.4128.2+9.378%
Season at home (5)73.058.2131.2+14.8100%
Season away (4)63.561.0124.5+2.550%
Last 10 (10)66.859.8126.6+7.070%
Last 5 (5)72.062.4134.4+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)71.773.0144.7-1.333%
vs Similar (2)71.058.5129.5+12.5100%
vs Weaker (24)74.060.2134.1+13.875%
This opponent (Turkey W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Turkey WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Slovakia W
#17
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
H18/06
European Championship Women
Slovakia W
#10
W
75-40
75
40
+35
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
72-65
72
65
+7
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Romania W
#30
W
101-54
101
54
+47
110avg 83
H07/11
European Championship Women
Slovakia W
#10
W
65-50
65
50
+15
62avg 83
A10/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
83-76
83
76
+7
81avg 83
H06/02
European Championship Women
Romania W
#30
W
99-61
99
61
+38
98avg 83
A09/02
European Championship Women
France W
#3
L
69-71
69
71
-2
61avg 83
H18/06
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#20
W
91-67
91
67
+24
102avg 83
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
83-72
83
72
+11
90avg 83
A21/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
16-19
14-18
21-22
19-8
24-12
10-6
22-14
20-17
19-9
18-24
15-15
25-16
33-15
20-10
23-13
19-9
13-9
19-20
14-12
22-15
16-18
26-23
19-20
23-12
21-17
30-14
25-18
23-22
21-14
10-12
15-23
27-13
24-21
17-19
23-14
17-21
26-14
19-24
21-13
144.0Avg total
80.4Scored
63.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)82.061.8143.8+20.289%
Season at home (4)82.060.2142.2+21.875%
Season away (5)82.063.0145.0+19.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.463.6144.0+16.880%
Last 5 (5)85.069.4154.4+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)60.966.1127.0-5.212%
vs Similar (7)69.462.1131.6+7.371%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)84.362.5146.8+21.987%
This opponent (Italy W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +5.6+5.6Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +3.4+3.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +5.6+5.6Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +3.4+3.4
Italy WTurkey W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Italy WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montenegro W
#16
L
22-35
22
35
-13
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H19/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
34-23
34
23
+11
H21/06
European Championship Women
65.9Avg total
35.3Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)38.230.668.8+7.772%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.927.865.7+10.180%-
Last 30 away (14)38.633.572.1+5.164%-
Last 10 (10)35.330.665.9+4.760%-
Last 5 (5)39.030.869.8+8.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)39.036.775.7+2.367%-
vs Similar (2)39.522.562.0+17.0100%-
vs Weaker (24)38.030.568.5+7.571%-
This opponent (Turkey W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Turkey WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slovakia W
#17
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H18/06
European Championship Women
Slovakia W
#10
W
43-20
43
20
+23
H09/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A12/11
European Championship Women
Romania W
#30
W
58-31
58
31
+27
H07/11
European Championship Women
Slovakia W
#10
W
32-18
32
18
+14
A10/11
European Championship Women
Iceland W
#29
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H06/02
European Championship Women
Romania W
#30
W
44-29
44
29
+15
A09/02
European Championship Women
France W
#3
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H18/06
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#20
W
51-34
51
34
+17
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
43-35
43
35
+8
A21/06
European Championship Women
72.5Avg total
42.3Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.230.267.4+7.060%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.331.069.3+7.360%-
Last 30 away (15)36.129.465.5+6.760%-
Last 10 (10)42.330.272.5+12.190%-
Last 5 (5)44.033.477.4+10.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)30.632.663.2-2.025%-
vs Similar (7)34.329.463.7+4.971%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)42.129.371.3+12.873%-
This opponent (Italy W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italy Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy W: 67.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.9 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.717.4
42.9%
45.4%34.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.97.8
34.0%
30.0%23.3
🏀 Free throws14.29.7
68.0%
72.4%9.7
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Turkey Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Turkey W: 81.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.3 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.421.7
52.3%
45.4%43.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.4
35.1%
30.0%22.3
🏀 Free throws21.115.4
73.2%
72.4%15.4
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/9 games with a box score before 24 Jun 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy W
WWWLWLWWWL
Turkey W
WWLWWWWWWL
#6
League position
#5
+13.1
Net rating
+28.1
97.6
Offensive rating
112.7
84.5
Defensive rating
84.6
45.8%
Effective FG%
52.4%
42.3%
Opp. effective FG%
41.4%
14.9%
Turnover %
19.4%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
40.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.34
34.0%
3-point %
35.1%
68.7%
Assist %
73.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence97.6 · 112.7Defence84.5 · 84.6Shooting45.8% · 52.4%3-point %34.0% · 35.1%Ball care14.9% · 19.4%Off. rebounds28.2% · 40.8%Free throws0.22 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Italy W   ■ Turkey W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy W wins
0
Turkey W wins
No previous meetings.
Italy Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/06/25HLithuania W65-51
19/06/25HSlovenia W77-66
18/06/25ASerbia W70-61
09/02/25ACzech Republic W69-74
06/02/25HGermany W79-60
10/11/24AGreece W45-56
07/11/24HCzech Republic W68-47
12/11/23AGermany W70-53
09/11/23HGreece W76-67
19/06/23AMontenegro W49-63
Turkey Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/06/25AGreece W83-72
19/06/25ASwitzerland W91-67
18/06/25HFrance W69-71
09/02/25ARomania W99-61
06/02/25HIceland W83-76
10/11/24ASlovakia W65-50
07/11/24HRomania W101-54
12/11/23AIceland W72-65
09/11/23HSlovakia W75-40
18/06/23HSlovakia W66-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW78%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %78%100%50%
Points / game68.873.063.5
Allowed / game59.458.261.0
Point differential+9.3+14.8+2.5
Avg total128.2131.2124.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%80%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Turkey W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW89%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %89%75%100%
Points / game82.082.082.0
Allowed / game61.860.263.0
Point differential+20.2+21.8+19.0
Avg total143.8142.2145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 France W10100100%92.948.6+44.3
2 Spain W990100%76.459.3+17.1
3 Belgium W98189%85.155.6+29.6
4 Turkey W98189%82.061.8+20.2
5 Italy W97278%68.859.4+9.3
6 Sweden W97278%75.466.6+8.9
7 Slovenia W96367%77.668.3+9.2
8 Croatia W64267%76.067.8+8.2
9 Luxembourg W64267%63.257.2+6.0
10 Slovakia W64267%71.565.7+5.8
11 Germany W96367%71.968.8+3.1
12 Portugal W96367%60.058.8+1.2
13 Latvia W64267%75.076.5-1.5
14 Lithuania W106460%75.668.4+7.2
15 Serbia W95456%74.859.4+15.3
16 Poland W63350%79.862.3+17.5
17 Hungary W63350%73.567.7+5.8
18 Great Britain W94544%72.363.8+8.6
19 Czech Republic W94544%66.467.2-0.8
20 Montenegro W94544%65.466.8-1.3
21 Switzerland W94544%62.269.1-6.9
22 Greece W93633%68.872.7-3.9
23 Bulgaria W62433%76.381.5-5.2
24 Ukraine W62433%64.270.0-5.8
25 Netherlands W62433%63.770.3-6.7
26 Israel W62433%71.880.2-8.3
27 Finland W62433%62.577.3-14.8
28 Denmark W61517%66.773.8-7.2
29 Iceland W61517%68.877.7-8.8
30 Romania W61517%66.588.3-21.8
31 Estonia W61517%51.577.8-26.3
32 Austria W6060%53.074.0-21.0
33 Bosnia & Herzegovina W6060%54.083.2-29.2
34 North Macedonia W6060%56.086.8-30.8
35 Ireland W6060%55.597.2-41.7
36 Azerbaijan W6060%41.0105.5-64.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Italy W20111918876
Turkey W17181518674
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