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Jacksonville State vs UAB Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 78-70
Projected total 147.7
Final 71-68
35-30 36-38
Position#214
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game78.0
Jacksonville State 🏆
USA
Vs
77%
23%
■ JACK 77%■ UAB 23%
Pythia win probability
UAB
USA
Position#220
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game75.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Jacksonville State faces UAB on 14 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup, with the model favouring the Jaguars at 77% versus 23% for the Blazers, a reflection of Jacksonville State's 1-2 record, 83.0 points per game and 78.0 allowed per game, and a 2.5-point home line that the model believes they will cover 82% of the time. Jacksonville State has won its sole home game 123-59, while UAB has gone 2-1 overall, averaging 80.0 points scored and 75.3 allowed, and has lost its only road outing 78-99. The Jaguars' last five games include a 123-59 home victory, a 46-92 loss to Houston, and an 80-83 defeat by South Alabama, whereas UAB's recent slate features wins over Florida A&M and Nicholls State at home and a 78-99 loss to McNeese State on the road. The projected score is 78-70 for Jacksonville State, with a total of 147.7 points, and the model assigns a 45% chance of the over on the 149.5 line; overtime is a 4% possibility. Jacksonville State's 123-59 home win shows they can dominate when comfortable.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jacksonville State winWon
77.2%fair 1.30
Best odds2.37
Implied44.6%
Edge+32.6pp
UAB winLost
22.8%fair 4.38
Best odds1.74
Implied55.4%
Edge-32.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Jacksonville StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A19/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
78-82
78
82
-4
A21/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
80-70 OT
80
70
+10
H27/02
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
78-81
78
81
-3
H28/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
75-77 OT
75
77
-2
A06/03
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A07/03
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
63-68
63
68
-5
H11/03
NCAA
Hannibal-LaGrange
#512
W
123-59
123
59
+64
H03/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#257
L
80-83 OT
80
83
-3
A06/11
NCAA
Houston
#147
L
46-92
46
92
-46
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
20-39
51-38
26-36
52-46
25-25
36-36
34-27
44-54
33-24
35-44
32-29
32-32
28-39
35-29
64-24
59-35
32-23
34-43
23-45
23-47
150.8Avg total
75.8Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.078.0161.0+5.033%
Season at home (1)123.059.0182.0+64.0100%
Season away (2)63.087.5150.5-24.50%
Last 10 (10)75.875.0150.8+0.830%
Last 5 (5)75.272.6147.8+2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)56.774.3131.0-17.733%
vs Similar ◀ (17)72.372.2144.5+0.141%
vs Weaker (9)75.168.7143.8+6.444%
This opponent (UAB) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UABUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#173
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H15/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
W
76-71
76
71
+5
A19/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A22/02
NCAA
North Texas
#138
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H01/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
80-74
80
74
+6
A05/03
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
90-83
90
83
+7
H08/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
78-83
78
83
-5
H13/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#153
L
78-99
78
99
-21
A02/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#203
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Florida A&M
#309
W
92-64
92
64
+28
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-36
28-19
39-33
37-38
46-30
32-37
28-21
30-41
33-35
47-39
41-44
49-39
33-31
45-52
35-44
43-55
36-30
34-33
47-27
45-37
147.5Avg total
75.4Scored
72.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.075.3155.3+4.767%
Season at home (2)81.063.5144.5+17.5100%
Season away (1)78.099.0177.0-21.00%
Last 10 (10)75.472.1147.5+3.360%
Last 5 (5)81.678.4160.0+3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)78.585.3163.8-6.850%
vs Similar ◀ (9)72.773.2145.9-0.644%
vs Weaker (15)79.870.7150.5+9.180%
This opponent (Jacksonville State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Under 143
Over 143
61.1%
Under 143
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Under 148
Over 148
48.8%
@ 1.91-1.0pp
Under 148
51.2%
@ 1.89+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 153Actual: Under 153
Over 153
36.6%
Under 153
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Jacksonville State total 68.5Actual: Jacksonville State over 68.5
Over 68.5
83.0%
@ 1.36+16.3pp
Under 68.5
17.0%
@ 2.72-16.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.72
Jacksonville State total 72.5 · main lineActual: Jacksonville State under 72.5
Over 72.5
71.1%
@ 1.89+21.1pp
Under 72.5
28.9%
@ 1.98-21.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Jacksonville State total 76.5Actual: Jacksonville State under 76.5
Over 76.5
56.3%
@ 2.40+18.7pp
Under 76.5
43.7%
@ 1.45-18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.45
UAB total 72Actual: UAB under 72
Over 72
40.0%
Under 72
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UAB total 76 · main lineActual: UAB under 76
Over 76
25.8%
@ 1.85-24.2pp
Under 76
74.2%
@ 1.85+24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UAB total 80Actual: UAB under 80
Over 80
15.0%
Under 80
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Jacksonville State -0.5Actual: Jacksonville State -0.5
JACK -0.5
77.2%
UAB +0.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
JACK
No market prices yet.
UAB
No market prices yet.
Spread Jacksonville State +2.5 · main lineActual: Jacksonville State +2.5
JACK +2.5
82.0%
@ 2.02+31.3pp
UAB -2.5
18.0%
@ 1.95-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
JACK
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
UAB
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Jacksonville State +5.5Actual: Jacksonville State +5.5
JACK +5.5
87.9%
@ 1.64+29.5pp
UAB -5.5
12.1%
@ 2.30-29.5pp
Best 5 market prices
JACK
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
UAB
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.12

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: +0.0+0.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +3.3+3.32nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: +0.0+0.0
Jacksonville StateUAB
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Jacksonville StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
20-39
20
39
-19
A19/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
26-36
26
36
-10
A21/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
D
25-25
25
25
+0
H27/02
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H28/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
33-24
33
24
+9
A06/03
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A07/03
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H11/03
NCAA
Hannibal-LaGrange
#512
W
64-24
64
24
+40
H03/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#257
W
32-23
32
23
+9
A06/11
NCAA
Houston
#147
L
23-45
23
45
-22
A12/11
NCAA
62.8Avg total
31.7Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)31.731.262.9+0.547%10%
Last 30 at home (16)33.129.162.2+4.056%12%
Last 30 away (14)30.133.663.7-3.436%7%
Last 10 (10)31.731.162.8+0.650%10%
Last 5 (5)35.832.067.8+3.860%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)25.038.063.0-13.00%0%
vs Similar ◀ (17)31.131.462.5-0.247%12%
vs Weaker (9)35.129.664.7+5.656%11%
This opponent (UAB) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UABLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#173
L
26-36
26
36
-10
H15/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A19/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A22/02
NCAA
North Texas
#138
W
28-21
28
21
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A05/03
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H08/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H13/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#153
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A02/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#203
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H07/11
NCAA
Florida A&M
#309
W
47-27
47
27
+20
H10/11
NCAA
69.5Avg total
36.4Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)36.434.470.7+2.063%60%
Last 30 at home (17)36.634.470.9+2.265%59%
Last 30 away (13)36.134.470.5+1.762%62%
Last 10 (10)36.433.169.5+3.360%50%
Last 5 (5)38.435.273.6+3.260%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)34.538.773.2-4.217%67%
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.632.067.6+3.678%67%
vs Weaker (15)37.634.171.7+3.573%53%
This opponent (Jacksonville State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Jacksonville State win
JACK win
no forecast
@ 2.26
UAB win
no forecast
@ 1.66
1st half Spread Jacksonville State +2 · main lineActual: Jacksonville State +2
JACK +2
no forecast
@ 1.87
UAB -2
no forecast
@ 1.96
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Jacksonville State 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Jacksonville State over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
UAB 1st half total 36 · main lineActual: UAB under 36
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 69Actual: Under 69
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Over/Under 72Actual: Under 72
Over
no forecast
@ 2.17
Under
no forecast
@ 1.69
1st half Spread Jacksonville State +1Actual: Jacksonville State +1
JACK +1
no forecast
@ 2.05
UAB -1
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Jacksonville State +3Actual: Jacksonville State +3
JACK +3
no forecast
@ 1.71
UAB -3
no forecast
@ 2.16
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Jacksonville State -0.5Actual: Jacksonville State -0.5
JACK -0.5
no forecast
@ 2.42
UAB +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Jacksonville State +4.5Actual: Jacksonville State +4.5
JACK +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
UAB -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Jacksonville State -1.5Actual: Jacksonville State -1.5
JACK -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
UAB +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Jacksonville State (regulation)
JACK
no forecast
@ 2.30
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
UAB
no forecast
@ 1.74

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
JACK win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
UAB win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: JACK leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Jacksonville State -1.574.9%2.45
Betano
2.45		----+37.4ppWon
Jacksonville State -2.571.2%2.65
Betano
2.65		----+36.4ppWon
Jacksonville State (regulation)74.8%2.33
Betano
2.45
Marathon Bet
2.21		---+36.1ppWon
Jacksonville State -176.7%2.27
Pinnacle
2.27		----+34.4ppWon
Jacksonville State +178.7%2.15
Pinnacle
2.15		----+34.2ppWon
Jacksonville State +281.5%1.94
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.90		---+33.3ppWon
Jacksonville State +1.579.2%2.09
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09		---+33.2ppWon
Jacksonville State win77.2%2.18
Betano
2.37
WilliamHill
2.20
Bet365
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
BetVictor
2.15		+32.6ppWon
Jacksonville State +2.582.0%1.88
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83		+31.3ppWon
Jacksonville State +383.6%1.79
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79		---+30.4ppWon
Jacksonville State +6.589.5%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+30.1ppWon
Jacksonville State +5.587.9%1.63
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62		---+29.5ppWon
Jacksonville State +587.7%1.63
Pinnacle
1.63		----+28.9ppWon
Jacksonville State +3.583.9%1.79
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.73		+28.5ppWon
Jacksonville State +485.7%1.69
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.67		---+28.3ppWon
Jacksonville State +7.591.0%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+28.0ppWon
Jacksonville State +4.586.0%1.69
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.61		-+26.7ppWon
Jacksonville State +8.592.3%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+26.4ppWon
Jacksonville State +9.593.4%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+24.6ppWon
UAB under 7674.2%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+24.2ppWon
Jacksonville State +11.595.2%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+23.1ppWon
Jacksonville State +10.594.3%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+23.1ppWon
UAB under 77.577.9%1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70		---+22.9ppWon
UAB under 78.580.6%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+22.2ppWon
Jacksonville State over 71.574.4%1.69
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.60		---+21.5ppLost
UAB under 79.583.1%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+21.4ppWon
Jacksonville State over 72.571.1%1.82
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75		+21.1ppLost
UAB under 7570.9%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+20.9ppWon
Jacksonville State over 7370.1%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		---+20.2ppLost
UAB under 80.585.3%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+20.2ppWon
UAB under 76.575.0%1.80
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.69		+19.3ppWon
UAB under 75.571.9%1.87
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.79		-+19.0ppWon
Jacksonville State over 70.577.5%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+17.3ppWon
Jacksonville State over 69.580.4%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+16.9ppWon
Jacksonville State over 68.583.0%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+16.3ppWon
Overtime: no96.0%1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03		---+5.6ppWon
Under 156.570.8%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+3.8ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Jacksonville State wins
0
UAB wins
No previous meetings.
Jacksonville Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AHouston46-92
06/11/26ASouth Alabama80-83 OT
03/11/26HHannibal-LaGrange123-59
11/03/26HNew Mexico State63-68
07/03/26AUTEP64-61
06/03/26ANew Mexico State75-77 OT
28/02/26HLiberty78-81
27/02/26HDelaware80-70 OT
21/02/26ASam Houston St.78-82
19/02/26ALouisiana Tech71-77
UABlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HFlorida A&M92-64
07/11/26HNicholls State70-63
02/11/26AMcNeese State78-99
13/03/26HCharlotte78-83
08/03/26HEast Carolina90-83
05/03/26ACharlotte80-74
01/03/26HNorth Texas58-62
22/02/26AMemphis78-67
19/02/26ATemple76-71
15/02/26HTulane54-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Jacksonville State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game83.0123.063.0
Allowed / game78.059.087.5
Point differential+5.0+64.0-24.5
Avg total161.0182.0150.5
Over 14867%100%50%
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %33%0%50%
UAB
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game80.081.078.0
Allowed / game75.363.599.0
Point differential+4.7+17.5-21.0
Avg total155.3144.5177.0
Over 14867%50%100%
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 Louisiana Tech32167%70.360.7+9.7
8 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
9 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
10 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
11 Jacksonville State31233%83.078.0+5.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulsa330100%90.765.3+25.3
2 North Texas43175%84.064.5+19.5
3 East Carolina43175%75.565.8+9.8
4 Florida Atlantic43175%79.577.5+2.0
5 Wichita State32167%92.773.3+19.3
6 UAB32167%80.075.3+4.7
7 UTSA Roadrunners32167%76.774.0+2.7
8 Memphis32167%83.389.7-6.3
9 South Florida42250%82.874.8+8.0
10 Rice42250%81.274.0+7.2
11 Tulane42250%81.278.2+3.0
12 Charlotte42250%69.267.8+1.5
13 Temple31233%67.375.3-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Jacksonville State353671
UAB303868
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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