PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Kansas State hosts Montana on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Wildcats at 62% to 38% for the Grizzlies. Kansas State has played three games this season, winning two and losing one, averaging 83.3 points scored and allowing 76.0, and sits 162nd in the league; their home record mirrors the overall 2-1, with 83.3 points per game and 76.0 allowed, and they went 2-3 in their last five outings, including victories over Creighton 89-82 and CS Northridge 95-78 and a narrow loss to South Dakota St. 66-68. Montana, also four games with a 2-2 record, averages 78.0 points scored and 65.2 allowed, positioned 195th; on the road they are 1-2, averaging 69.0 points and conceding 73.7, and their last five games were 2-3, highlighted by a win over North Dakota 80-71 and a defeat to San Francisco 58-63. The Pythia model projects a 77-73 score for Kansas State, a total of 150.1 points, and a 5% chance of overtime. The Wildcats' line is 77-73, and the model estimates a 62% probability that Kansas State will cover it. The final game-day fact: Montana's recent 105-40 rout of Salish Kootenai shows their potential for high-scoring games.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.3 | 76.0 | 159.3 | +7.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 83.3 | 76.0 | 159.3 | +7.3 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.1 | 83.0 | 162.1 | -3.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 85.2 | 87.4 | 172.6 | -2.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 72.4 | 84.0 | 156.4 | -11.6 | 14% |
| vs Similar (7) | 86.0 | 79.7 | 165.7 | +6.3 | 57% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 101.0 | 67.0 | 168.0 | +34.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 78.0 | 65.2 | 143.2 | +12.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 105.0 | 40.0 | 145.0 | +65.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 69.0 | 73.7 | 142.7 | -4.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.0 | 72.5 | 148.5 | +3.5 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 67.6 | 143.2 | +8.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 65.0 | 87.3 | 152.3 | -22.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 73.8 | 75.6 | 149.3 | -1.8 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 76.5 | 70.2 | 146.8 | +6.2 | 62% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.1 | 39.7 | 76.8 | -2.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 37.9 | 38.2 | 76.2 | -0.3 | 35% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.9 | 41.7 | 77.6 | -5.8 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.7 | 39.2 | 76.9 | -1.5 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.4 | 40.0 | 81.4 | +1.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 32.7 | 41.4 | 74.1 | -8.8 | 10% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 46.4 | 37.9 | 84.3 | +8.6 | 71% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 50.5 | 28.5 | 79.0 | +22.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 35.4 | 32.6 | 68.0 | +2.8 | 52% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 37.4 | 30.7 | 68.1 | +6.7 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.3 | 34.6 | 67.9 | -1.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 37.1 | 28.7 | 65.8 | +8.4 | 78% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 27.8 | 65.8 | +10.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 27.3 | 38.7 | 66.0 | -11.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 33.8 | 32.0 | 65.8 | +1.8 | 56% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 36.9 | 35.1 | 72.0 | +1.7 | 57% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Creighton | 89-82 |
| 07/11/26 | H | CS Northridge | 95-78 |
| 04/11/26 | H | South Dakota St. | 66-68 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Brigham Young | 91-105 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Kansas | 85-104 |
| 04/03/26 | H | West Virginia | 65-63 |
| 28/02/26 | H | TCU | 68-77 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Colorado | 70-79 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Texas Tech | 72-100 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Baylor | 90-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | North Dakota | 80-71 |
| 11/11/26 | A | San Francisco | 58-63 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Salish Kootenai | 105-40 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Oregon | 69-87 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Idaho | 66-77 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Portland State | 75-72 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Northern Colorado | 95-89 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Northern Colorado | 57-85 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Portland State | 74-68 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Sacramento State | 81-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 83.3 | 83.3 | - |
| Allowed / game | 76.0 | 76.0 | - |
| Point differential | +7.3 | +7.3 | - |
| Avg total | 159.3 | 159.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 78.0 | 105.0 | 69.0 |
| Allowed / game | 65.2 | 40.0 | 73.7 |
| Point differential | +12.8 | +65.0 | -4.7 |
| Avg total | 143.2 | 145.0 | 142.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Texas Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 53.8 | +27.2 |
| 6 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 7 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 |  Cincinnati | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 63.0 | +16.0 |
| 11 |  Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 12 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 14 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 15 | Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.0 | 69.5 | +4.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Idaho | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.5 | 71.5 | +15.0 |
| 2 | Montana | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.0 | 65.2 | +12.8 |
| 3 |  Northern Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 82.0 | 69.2 | +12.8 |
| 4 |  Portland State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 73.2 | +8.2 |
| 5 |  Sacramento State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 77.3 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 83.5 | -3.0 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 86.2 | -11.8 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 69.5 | 87.8 | -18.2 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
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