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Kentucky vs Manhattan Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 85-57
48-22 37-35
Position#102
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Kentucky 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ KENT 94%■ MANH 6%
Pythia win probability
Projected 85-68
Projected total 153.2
Manhattan
USA
Position#337
Record-
FormWLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Kentucky faces Manhattan in the NCAA on 3 November 2026, with the model placing the Wildcats as the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win. Kentucky's recent form shows three wins and two losses in their last five games, including a 89-84 victory over Santa Clara at home on 20 March 2026, while Manhattan has struggled, winning only one of their last five with a 60-71 loss to Fairfield on 5 March 2026. The head-to-head history is not recorded in this data set, so no past meetings are noted. Pythia projects a score of 85-68, giving Kentucky 85 points and Manhattan 68, for a total of 153.2 points. The home team's line is 158.5, with a 37% probability that the game will go over, and the model assigns a 2% chance of overtime. The Wildcats' dominant odds and recent performance suggest they will comfortably cover the spread.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky winWon
93.6%fair 1.07
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Manhattan winLost
6.4%fair 15.75
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#188
L
74-75
74
75
-1
A22/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
72-63
72
63
+9
A25/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
91-77
91
77
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A22/03
NCAA
1H
2H
39-35
35-40
28-21
44-42
46-31
45-46
33-45
52-51
32-49
45-35
46-43
41-39
38-29
40-43
28-37
35-34
29-31
44-42
30-31
33-51
156.5Avg total
77.9Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.978.6156.5-0.750%
Last 5 (5)76.078.2154.2-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.182.9153.0-12.714%
vs Similar (17)78.876.9155.8+1.965%
vs Weaker (6)90.366.7157.0+23.7100%
ManhattanUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rider
#367
W
95-90
95
90
+5
H31/01
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A01/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
75-80
75
80
-5
H06/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
80-68
80
68
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
76-69
76
69
+7
A13/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
69-65
69
65
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
70-84
70
84
-14
H21/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
65-75
65
75
-10
A28/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H01/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
60-71
60
71
-11
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
45-43
50-47
27-32
38-40
35-43
40-37
37-44
43-24
35-27
41-42
37-27
32-38
35-42
35-42
25-40
40-35
26-35
39-34
27-31
33-40
146.3Avg total
72.0Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.074.3146.3-2.340%
Last 5 (5)65.872.8138.6-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)69.281.2150.4-12.116%
vs Similar (8)74.872.0146.8+2.862%
vs Weaker (3)83.078.0161.0+5.0100%
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
49.0%
@ 1.50-13.5pp
Under 153.5
51.0%
@ 2.55+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
36.9%
@ 1.93-13.9pp
Under 158.5
63.1%
@ 1.94+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
26.0%
@ 2.55-10.9pp
Under 163.5
74.0%
@ 1.47+10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Kentucky total 90.5Actual: Kentucky under 90.5
Over 90.5
30.5%
@ 1.35-36.6pp
Under 90.5
69.5%
@ 2.75+36.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Kentucky total 94.5 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 94.5
Over 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.85
Kentucky total 98.5Actual: Kentucky under 98.5
Over 98.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.47
Manhattan total 59Actual: Manhattan under 59
Over 59
81.5%
Under 59
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manhattan total 63 · main lineActual: Manhattan under 63
Over 63
68.5%
@ 1.87+18.7pp
Under 63
31.5%
@ 1.85-18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Manhattan total 67Actual: Manhattan under 67
Over 67
52.5%
Under 67
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kentucky -36Actual: Manhattan +36
KENT -36
no forecast
@ 2.15
MANH +36
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
2.15
MANH
Bet365
1.62
Spread Kentucky -33 · main lineActual: Manhattan +33
KENT -33
no forecast
@ 1.88
MANH +33
no forecast
@ 1.94
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.80
MANH
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Kentucky -30Actual: Manhattan +30
KENT -30
no forecast
@ 1.65
MANH +30
no forecast
@ 2.28
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.57
MANH
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.3-0.31st half: -3.5-3.52nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: +1.2+1.2
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -0.3-0.31st half: -3.5-3.52nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: +1.2+1.2
KentuckyManhattan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Auburn
#188
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A22/02
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
32-49
32
49
-17
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A22/03
NCAA
70.1Avg total
34.9Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)34.636.671.2-2.040%40%
Last 30 at home (18)36.536.172.6+0.444%44%
Last 30 away (12)31.837.469.2-5.633%33%
Last 10 (10)34.935.270.1-0.350%40%
Last 5 (5)34.234.268.4+0.040%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)30.439.670.0-9.114%43%
vs Similar (17)34.437.772.1-3.429%35%
vs Weaker (6)40.330.070.3+10.3100%50%
ManhattanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rider
#367
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H31/01
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A01/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H06/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H07/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
35-27
35
27
+8
A13/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A15/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
35-42
35
42
-7
H21/02
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A28/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H01/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
27-31
27
31
-4
A06/03
NCAA
69.3Avg total
32.9Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)32.536.869.3-4.327%27%
Last 30 at home (14)36.337.974.2-1.643%50%
Last 30 away (16)29.235.965.1-6.712%6%
Last 10 (10)32.936.469.3-3.530%40%
Last 5 (5)30.035.065.0-5.020%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)30.438.368.7-7.911%26%
vs Similar (8)34.933.168.0+1.850%25%
vs Weaker (3)39.737.377.0+2.367%33%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Kentucky -18.5 · main lineActual: Kentucky -18.5
KENT -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.94
MANH +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Kentucky 1st half total 47 · main lineActual: Kentucky over 47
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Manhattan 1st half total 28 · main lineActual: Manhattan under 28
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
1st half: KENT + total 75.5
KENT & over
no forecast
@ 1.83
KENT & under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: Draw + total 75.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 51.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 51.00
1st half: MANH + total 75.5
MANH & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
MANH & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half Over/Under 74Actual: Under 74
Over
no forecast
@ 1.69
Under
no forecast
@ 2.16
1st half Over/Under 77Actual: Under 77
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Kentucky -19.5Actual: Kentucky -19.5
KENT -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.14
MANH +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Kentucky -17.5Actual: Kentucky -17.5
KENT -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.77
MANH +17.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Kentucky -20.5Actual: Kentucky -20.5
KENT -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.19
MANH +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.69
1st half Spread Kentucky -16.5Actual: Kentucky -16.5
KENT -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
MANH +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Kentucky (regulation)
KENT
no forecast
@ 1.01
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
MANH
no forecast
@ 19.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KENT win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
MANH win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KENT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MANH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Manhattan +2574.7%3.50
Bet365
3.50		----+48.1ppLost
Manhattan +24.572.6%3.65
Bet365
3.65		----+47.1ppLost
Kentucky under 91.572.9%2.50
Betano
2.50		----+36.7ppWon
Manhattan over 61.573.0%1.73
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.67		---+20.1ppLost
Manhattan over 60.576.2%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+16.9ppLost
Manhattan over 59.579.2%1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44		---+16.5ppLost
Manhattan over 58.582.0%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+15.3ppLost
Manhattan over 57.584.5%1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29		---+13.6ppLost
Manhattan over 56.586.7%1.25
1xBet
1.25		----+13.1ppWon
Under 16271.3%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+11.6ppWon
Manhattan over 55.588.8%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+11.0ppWon
Under 162.571.9%1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52		---+11.0ppWon
Under 16373.4%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+10.9ppWon
Under 163.574.0%1.47
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.47		---+10.9ppWon
Under 16475.5%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+10.5ppWon
Under 16577.4%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+10.4ppWon
Under 164.575.9%1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40		---+10.2ppWon
Under 165.577.8%1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35		---+9.7ppWon
Under 16679.2%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+9.2ppWon
Under 166.579.6%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+8.6ppWon
Under 168.582.9%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+7.6ppWon
Under 173.589.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+5.1ppWon
Over 133.588.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----3.4ppWon
Over 138.581.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----7.6ppWon
Kentucky over 76.581.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.4ppWon
Over 143.572.4%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----12.0ppLost
Kentucky over 78.576.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----15.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Kentucky wins
0
Manhattan wins
No previous meetings.
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/26AIowa State63-82
20/03/26HSanta Clara89-84 OT
13/03/26AFlorida63-71
12/03/26AMissouri78-72
11/03/26HLSU87-82
07/03/26HFlorida77-84
04/03/26ATexas A&M85-96
28/02/26HVanderbilt91-77
25/02/26ASouth Carolina72-63
22/02/26AAuburn74-75
Manhattanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26AFairfield60-71
01/03/26HIona65-69
28/02/26ASt. Peters65-75
21/02/26HMarist70-84
15/02/26ACanisius69-65
13/02/26ANiagara76-69
07/02/26HSacred Heart80-68
06/02/26HSt. Peters75-80
01/02/26AMount St. Mary's65-72
31/01/26HRider95-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Manhattan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas110100%109.059.0+50.0
2 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
3 Ole Miss110100%99.058.0+41.0
4 Tennessee110100%90.059.0+31.0
5 Mississippi St.110100%106.088.0+18.0
6 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
7 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
8 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sacred Heart110100%111.044.0+67.0
2 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
3 Iona110100%56.055.0+1.0
4 Siena1010%75.080.0-5.0
5 Marist1010%62.069.0-7.0
6 St. Peters1010%42.066.0-24.0
7 Quinnipiac1010%59.096.0-37.0
8 Rider1010%57.095.0-38.0
9 Canisius1010%57.097.0-40.0
10 Mount St. Mary's1010%52.097.0-45.0
11 Niagara1010%46.091.0-45.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Kentucky483785
Manhattan223557
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