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Kentucky vs Northern Arizona Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 89-64
Projected total 153.9
Final 78-77
45-37 33-40
Position#138
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game75.3
Kentucky 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ KENT 98%■ NORT 2%
Pythia win probability
Northern Arizona
USA
Position#377
Record0-3
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.0
Allowed / game91.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Kentucky faces Northern Arizona on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the model names the Wildcats the clear favourite, rating them 98% to win because of their 2-1 record, 81.0 points per game and 75.3 allowed, and a league position of 177, while Northern Arizona sits at 0-3, 67.0 points per game and 91.0 allowed, league position 385. Kentucky's 2-1 record over all games, 81.0 points scored and 75.3 allowed, matches its home-only 2-1 record, 81.0 points and 75.3 allowed, and its last five games show three wins and two losses; the recent results include a loss to Kansas 69-89 at home on 10 November, a win over James Madison 89-80 on 6 November and a win over Manhattan 85-57 on 3 November. Northern Arizona's 0-3 record over all games, 67.0 points scored and 91.0 allowed, mirrors its road-only 0-3 record, 67.0 points and 91.0 allowed, and its last five games are five losses; recent results list losses to Arizona 59-90, New Mexico 65-94 and UNLV 77-89, all away. The Pythia model gives Kentucky a 98% win probability and Northern Arizona a 2% chance, projecting a 89-64 score and 153.9 total points, with a main total line of 155.5 and a 46% chance of the over, and a 1% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky winWon
98.0%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+3.2pp
Northern Arizona winLost
2.0%fair 50.49
Best odds100.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-3.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#319
W
85-57
85
57
+28
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#282
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#12
L
69-89
69
89
-20
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-45
52-51
32-49
45-35
46-43
41-39
38-29
40-43
28-37
35-34
29-31
44-42
30-31
33-51
48-22
37-35
39-39
50-41
36-46
33-43
158.2Avg total
78.5Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.075.3156.3+5.767%
Season at home (3)81.075.3156.3+5.767%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.579.7158.2-1.250%
Last 5 (5)79.078.4157.4+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)71.682.1153.7-10.614%
vs Similar (16)79.877.6157.3+2.269%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)87.469.0156.4+18.4100%
This opponent (Northern Arizona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern ArizonaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland State
#87
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H13/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
79-74
79
74
+5
H15/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
77-78
77
78
-1
A22/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
58-78
58
78
-20
A27/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
57-88
57
88
-31
A28/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
L
65-73
65
73
-8
A08/03
NCAA
UNLV
#74
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A04/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#93
L
65-94
65
94
-29
A07/11
NCAA
Arizona
#115
L
59-90
59
90
-31
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-29
36-48
38-25
41-49
41-43
36-35
29-37
29-41
25-45
32-43
25-36
40-40
30-45
35-28
47-43
30-46
30-46
35-48
22-46
37-44
148.7Avg total
67.0Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)67.091.0158.0-24.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (3)67.091.0158.0-24.00%
Last 10 (10)67.081.7148.7-14.710%
Last 5 (5)66.284.4150.6-18.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)67.180.2147.3-13.014%
vs Similar (8)69.174.0143.1-4.938%
vs Weaker (1)112.060.0172.0+52.0100%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150Actual: Over 150
Over 150
59.7%
@ 1.41-6.0pp
Under 150
40.3%
@ 2.70+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 155 · main linePush
Over 155
47.0%
@ 1.92-2.5pp
Under 155
53.0%
@ 1.99+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.99
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 160Actual: Under 160
Over 160
34.7%
@ 2.50-2.8pp
Under 160
65.3%
@ 1.50+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Kentucky total 91Actual: Kentucky under 91
Over 91
43.2%
Under 91
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kentucky total 95 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 95
Over 95
27.7%
@ 1.85-22.3pp
Under 95
72.3%
@ 1.85+22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Kentucky total 99Actual: Kentucky under 99
Over 99
15.7%
Under 99
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Arizona total 57Actual: Northern Arizona over 57
Over 57
78.1%
Under 57
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Arizona total 61 · main lineActual: Northern Arizona over 61
Over 61
64.0%
@ 1.88+14.4pp
Under 61
36.0%
@ 1.85-14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Northern Arizona total 65Actual: Northern Arizona over 65
Over 65
47.6%
Under 65
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kentucky -38Actual: Northern Arizona +38
KENT -38
no forecast
@ 2.20
NORT +38
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
2.20
NORT
Bet365
1.60
Spread Kentucky -35 · main lineActual: Northern Arizona +35
KENT -35
no forecast
@ 1.95
NORT +35
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
NORT
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Spread Kentucky -32Actual: Northern Arizona +32
KENT -32
no forecast
@ 1.58
NORT +32
no forecast
@ 2.41
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
NORT
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: -7.6-7.62nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: -7.1-7.1
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: -7.6-7.62nd half2nd half: -0.4-0.42nd half: -7.1-7.1
KentuckyNorthern Arizona
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
32-49
32
49
-17
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#319
W
48-22
48
22
+26
H04/11
NCAA
James Madison
#282
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H07/11
NCAA
Kansas
#12
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H11/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
35.9Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)35.636.872.4-1.240%50%
Last 30 at home (18)38.136.374.4+1.844%61%
Last 30 away (12)31.837.469.2-5.633%33%
Last 10 (10)35.937.273.1-1.330%50%
Last 5 (5)36.433.870.2+2.620%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.740.072.7-7.314%57%
vs Similar (16)34.638.172.7-3.631%44%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)40.930.471.3+10.486%57%
This opponent (Northern Arizona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern ArizonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland State
#87
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H13/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H15/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A22/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A27/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
25-45
25
45
-20
A28/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
25-36
25
36
-11
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A08/03
NCAA
UNLV
#74
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A04/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#93
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A07/11
NCAA
Arizona
#115
L
22-46
22
46
-24
A11/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
31.9Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)33.237.570.7-4.230%30%
Last 30 at home (13)35.535.771.2-0.246%31%
Last 30 away (17)31.538.870.3-7.418%29%
Last 10 (10)31.939.571.4-7.630%40%
Last 5 (5)30.843.274.0-12.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)32.038.770.7-6.624%29%
vs Similar (8)33.935.669.5-1.838%25%
vs Weaker (1)53.027.080.0+26.0100%100%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Kentucky win
KENT win
no forecast
@ 1.03
NORT win
no forecast
@ 13.50
1st half Spread Kentucky -17.5 · main lineActual: Northern Arizona +17.5
KENT -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
NORT +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Kentucky 1st half total 47.5 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 47.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Northern Arizona 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Northern Arizona over 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Kentucky -18.5Actual: Northern Arizona +18.5
KENT -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
NORT +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Kentucky -16.5Actual: Northern Arizona +16.5
KENT -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
NORT +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Kentucky -19.5Actual: Northern Arizona +19.5
KENT -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
NORT +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Kentucky -15.5Actual: Northern Arizona +15.5
KENT -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
NORT +15.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.47
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Kentucky -20.5Actual: Northern Arizona +20.5
KENT -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
NORT +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Kentucky -14.5Actual: Northern Arizona +14.5
KENT -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
NORT +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Kentucky (regulation)
KENT
no forecast
@ 1.03
Draw
no forecast
@ 51.00
NORT
no forecast
@ 12.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KENT win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
NORT win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KENT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Kentucky under 9675.6%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+25.4ppWon
Kentucky under 9572.3%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+22.3ppWon
Kentucky under 97.579.4%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+22.0ppWon
Kentucky under 98.582.2%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+21.9ppWon
Kentucky under 96.576.4%1.72
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72		---+21.7ppWon
Kentucky under 95.573.2%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.80		+21.5ppWon
Kentucky under 99.584.7%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+21.2ppWon
Northern Arizona over 58.572.5%1.69
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.60		---+19.3ppWon
Northern Arizona over 57.575.7%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+16.1ppWon
Northern Arizona over 56.578.8%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+15.8ppWon
Northern Arizona over 55.581.6%1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31		---+13.0ppWon
Northern Arizona over 53.586.4%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+8.6ppWon
Northern Arizona over 51.590.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+6.5ppWon
Kentucky (regulation)97.6%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+5.8ppWon
Under 163.572.6%1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32		---+3.8ppWon
Under 162.570.5%1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36		---+3.2ppWon
Kentucky win98.0%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+3.2ppWon
Under 16372.1%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+2.6ppWon
Kentucky over 75.592.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.8ppWon
Kentucky over 76.590.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.9ppWon
Kentucky over 78.586.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----4.3ppLost
Kentucky over 80.581.6%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----7.4ppLost
Kentucky over 82.575.7%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----11.4ppLost
Northern Arizona under 70.573.0%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----13.7ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Kentucky wins
0
Northern Arizona wins
No previous meetings.
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HKansas69-89
07/11/26HJames Madison89-80
04/11/26HManhattan85-57
22/03/26AIowa State63-82
20/03/26HSanta Clara89-84 OT
13/03/26AFlorida63-71
12/03/26AMissouri78-72
11/03/26HLSU87-82
07/03/26HFlorida77-84
04/03/26ATexas A&M85-96
Northern Arizonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AArizona59-90
07/11/26ANew Mexico65-94
04/11/26AUNLV77-89
08/03/26AIdaho State65-73
03/03/26HMontana State65-76
28/02/26AEast. Washington57-88
27/02/26AIdaho58-78
22/02/26ANorthern Colorado77-78
15/02/26HSacramento State79-74
13/02/26HPortland State68-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game81.081.0-
Allowed / game75.375.3-
Point differential+5.7+5.7-
Avg total156.3156.3-
Over 15567%67%-
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Northern Arizona
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
Home--
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games3-3
Win %0%-0%
Points / game67.0-67.0
Allowed / game91.0-91.0
Point differential-24.0--24.0
Avg total158.0-158.0
Over 15567%-67%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU330100%94.052.7+41.3
3 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
4 Mississippi St.330100%95.363.0+32.3
5 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
6 Vanderbilt330100%90.759.7+31.0
7 Auburn220100%83.556.0+27.5
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Alabama330100%102.076.0+26.0
10 South Carolina330100%78.754.7+24.0
11 Florida330100%82.065.3+16.7
12 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
13 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
14 Arkansas32167%84.768.3+16.3
15 Oklahoma32167%76.365.7+10.7
16 Kentucky32167%81.075.3+5.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Northern Colorado32167%94.068.7+25.3
2 Idaho32167%90.767.7+23.0
3 Sacramento State21150%83.578.5+5.0
4 Montana31233%77.363.3+14.0
5 Portland State31233%80.775.0+5.7
6 Montana State31233%76.080.0-4.0
7 East. Washington3030%73.388.7-15.3
8 Weber State3030%72.796.0-23.3
9 Northern Arizona3030%67.091.0-24.0
10 Idaho State3030%67.392.0-24.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Kentucky453378
Northern Arizona374077
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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