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Kentucky vs James Madison Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 88-68
Projected total 156.2
Final 89-80
39-39 50-41
Position#100
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game57.0
Kentucky 🏆
USA
Vs
95%
■ KENT 95%■ JAME 5%
Pythia win probability
James Madison
USA
Position#311
Record0-1
FormWLWLL
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game86.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Kentucky hosts James Madison on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Kentucky the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win largely because of their 1-0 record, 85.0 points per game and only 57.0 allowed, placing them 96th in the league, while James Madison sits at 281 with a 0-1 record, 77.0 points per game and 86.0 allowed. Kentucky's single game this season was a 85-57 home win, their only home outing, and they have won 3 of their last 5 games; their recent home victory over Manhattan 85-57 on 3 November 2026 and a 89-84 win over Santa Clara on 20 March 2026 illustrate their offensive potency. James Madison's lone game was a 77-86 loss at home to Miami (Ohio) on 2 November 2026, and they have won 2 of their last 5 games, with a 87-72 home win over Louisiana Lafayette on 4 March 2026 showing they can score. The teams have not met before. Pythia projects a 95% chance for Kentucky to win, 5% for James Madison, with a projected score of 88-68 and a total of 156.2 points; the line of 157.5 gives a 47% probability of the over, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. Kentucky's strong season numbers suggest they will control the game and likely cover the spread.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky winWon
95.3%fair 1.05
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+1.1pp
James Madison winLost
4.7%fair 21.31
Best odds34.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-1.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KentuckyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
W
72-63
72
63
+9
A25/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
91-77
91
77
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
W
89-84 OT
89
84
+5
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#332
W
85-57
85
57
+28
H04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
28-21
44-42
46-31
45-46
33-45
52-51
32-49
45-35
46-43
41-39
38-29
40-43
28-37
35-34
29-31
44-42
30-31
33-51
48-22
37-35
155.8Avg total
79.0Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)85.057.0142.0+28.0100%
Season at home (1)85.057.0142.0+28.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.076.8155.8+2.260%
Last 5 (5)75.673.2148.8+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.182.9153.0-12.714%
vs Similar (17)78.876.9155.8+1.965%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)87.267.2154.3+20.0100%
This opponent (James Madison) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
James MadisonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
W
73-71
73
71
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
81-79 OT
81
79
+2
H13/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
80-65
80
65
+15
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
82-66
82
66
+16
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
87-72
87
72
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A05/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#138
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-32
41-39
41-33
29-37
29-24
40-34
32-32
35-33
40-26
40-39
38-37
44-29
33-31
35-38
37-27
50-45
33-35
47-51
41-35
36-51
148.1Avg total
76.4Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)77.086.0163.0-9.00%
Season at home (1)77.086.0163.0-9.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.471.7148.1+4.770%
Last 5 (5)78.875.8154.6+3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)71.778.1149.9-6.443%
vs Similar (18)75.774.5150.2+1.250%
vs Weaker (5)75.268.4143.6+6.880%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
61.3%
@ 1.44-3.6pp
Under 151.5
38.7%
@ 2.70+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
49.1%
@ 1.85-2.1pp
Under 156.5
50.9%
@ 1.95+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Over 161.5
Over 161.5
36.9%
@ 2.40-2.3pp
Under 161.5
63.1%
@ 1.53+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52

📊 3. Team Totals

Kentucky total 87Actual: Kentucky over 87
Over 87
54.0%
Under 87
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kentucky total 91 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 91
Over 91
37.3%
@ 1.85-13.1pp
Under 91
62.7%
@ 1.88+13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Kentucky total 95Actual: Kentucky under 95
Over 95
22.9%
Under 95
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
James Madison total 62Actual: James Madison over 62
Over 62
74.0%
Under 62
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
James Madison total 66 · main lineActual: James Madison over 66
Over 66
58.9%
@ 1.87+9.2pp
Under 66
41.1%
@ 1.85-9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
James Madison total 70Actual: James Madison over 70
Over 70
42.4%
Under 70
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kentucky -28Actual: James Madison +28
KENT -28
no forecast
@ 2.20
JAME +28
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
2.20
JAME
Bet365
1.60
Spread Kentucky -25 · main lineActual: James Madison +25
KENT -25
31.2%
@ 1.82-20.3pp
JAME +25
68.8%
@ 1.94+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
JAME
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Kentucky -22Actual: James Madison +22
KENT -22
41.4%
@ 1.54-19.0pp
JAME +22
58.6%
@ 2.35+19.0pp
Best 5 market prices
KENT
Bet365
1.54
JAME
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +4.4+4.42nd half2nd half: -0.2-0.22nd half: +0.1+0.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: +4.4+4.42nd half2nd half: -0.2-0.22nd half: +0.1+0.1
KentuckyJames Madison
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
KentuckyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
W
28-21
28
21
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A04/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
32-49
32
49
-17
H07/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Missouri
#111
W
38-29
38
29
+9
A12/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A13/03
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H20/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A22/03
NCAA
Manhattan
#332
W
48-22
48
22
+26
H04/11
NCAA
69.7Avg total
35.8Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)34.836.471.2-1.640%40%
Last 30 at home (18)36.835.772.5+1.144%44%
Last 30 away (12)31.837.469.2-5.633%33%
Last 10 (10)35.833.969.7+1.950%40%
Last 5 (5)34.630.064.6+4.640%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)30.439.670.0-9.114%43%
vs Similar (17)34.437.772.1-3.429%35%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)41.229.070.2+12.2100%50%
This opponent (James Madison) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
James MadisonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H13/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
40-26
40
26
+14
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A05/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#138
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H03/11
NCAA
66.8Avg total
35.6Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)34.534.268.7+0.357%23%
Last 30 at home (16)36.032.268.2+3.875%19%
Last 30 away (14)32.836.469.2-3.636%29%
Last 10 (10)35.631.266.8+4.470%10%
Last 5 (5)36.433.069.4+3.480%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.934.167.0-1.371%29%
vs Similar (18)34.436.070.4-1.639%28%
vs Weaker (5)37.027.864.8+9.2100%0%
This opponent (Kentucky) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: James Madison win
KENT win
no forecast
@ 1.05
JAME win
no forecast
@ 11.50
1st half Spread Kentucky -14.5 · main lineActual: James Madison +14.5
KENT -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
JAME +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Kentucky 1st half total 45 · main lineActual: Kentucky under 45
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
James Madison 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: James Madison over 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half: KENT + total 74.5
KENT & over
no forecast
@ 1.86
KENT & under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half: Draw + total 74.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: JAME + total 74.5
JAME & over
no forecast
@ 23.00
JAME & under
no forecast
@ 23.00
1st half Spread Kentucky -15.5Actual: James Madison +15.5
KENT -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
JAME +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Kentucky -13.5Actual: James Madison +13.5
KENT -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
JAME +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Kentucky -16.5Actual: James Madison +16.5
KENT -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
JAME +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Kentucky -12.5Actual: James Madison +12.5
KENT -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
JAME +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.53
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Kentucky (regulation)
KENT
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 30.00
JAME
no forecast
@ 12.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KENT win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
JAME win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KENT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Kentucky under 93.571.4%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+14.6ppWon
Kentucky under 95.577.8%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+13.9ppWon
Kentucky under 96.580.7%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+13.5ppWon
Kentucky under 94.574.7%1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50		---+13.2ppWon
Kentucky under 97.583.3%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+11.8ppWon
Kentucky under 101.591.4%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+10.0ppWon
James Madison over 62.571.6%1.48
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.44		---+9.8ppWon
James Madison over 61.574.9%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+8.8ppWon
Kentucky under 100.589.8%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+8.3ppWon
James Madison over 60.578.0%1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28		---+7.2ppWon
James Madison over 59.580.8%1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22		---+6.9ppWon
James Madison over 56.587.9%1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11		---+5.0ppWon
James Madison over 50.596.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+4.6ppWon
James Madison over 58.583.4%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+4.6ppWon
Kentucky (regulation)94.5%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+4.5ppWon
James Madison over 57.585.8%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+4.4ppWon
James Madison over 51.595.2%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+4.1ppWon
James Madison over 52.594.2%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+3.9ppWon
James Madison over 53.592.9%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+3.9ppWon
James Madison over 54.591.5%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+3.5ppWon
James Madison over 55.589.8%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+3.2ppWon
Under 182.594.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.0ppWon
Under 16571.3%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+1.4ppLost
Kentucky win95.3%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+1.1ppWon
Under 177.590.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.0ppWon
Over 132.592.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Under 165.571.9%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+0.5ppLost
Under 167.575.9%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.2ppLost
Under 172.584.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----0.6ppWon
Kentucky over 76.587.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----1.3ppWon
Over 137.587.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.7ppWon
Kentucky -4.591.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.7ppWon
Kentucky over 78.583.1%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----4.1ppWon
Over 142.580.2%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----4.2ppWon
Over 147.570.4%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----4.4ppWon
Kentucky over 80.577.5%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----5.6ppWon
James Madison under 76.579.7%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----6.4ppLost
Kentucky over 81.574.3%1.14
Bet365
1.14		-----7.1ppWon
Kentucky over 82.571.0%1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14		----9.2ppWon
James Madison under 74.573.7%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----9.4ppLost
Kentucky -10.579.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----9.6ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Kentucky wins
0
James Madison wins
No previous meetings.
Kentuckylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26HManhattan85-57
22/03/26AIowa State63-82
20/03/26HSanta Clara89-84 OT
13/03/26AFlorida63-71
12/03/26AMissouri78-72
11/03/26HLSU87-82
07/03/26HFlorida77-84
04/03/26ATexas A&M85-96
28/02/26HVanderbilt91-77
25/02/26ASouth Carolina72-63
James Madisonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
05/03/26ASouthern Miss80-86
04/03/26HLouisiana Lafayette87-72
28/02/26HCoastal Carolina68-69
26/02/26HGeorgia Southern82-66
21/02/26AGeorgia State80-65
19/02/26ACoastal Carolina67-65
14/02/26HAppalachian State69-58
13/02/26HGeorgia State81-79 OT
07/02/26HToledo73-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.085.0-
Allowed / game57.057.0-
Point differential+28.0+28.0-
Avg total142.0142.0-
Over 156.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
James Madison
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game77.077.0-
Allowed / game86.086.0-
Point differential-9.0-9.0-
Avg total163.0163.0-
Over 156.5100%100%-
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Missouri110100%111.050.0+61.0
2 Texas220100%103.554.5+49.0
3 Arkansas110100%106.061.0+45.0
4 LSU110100%100.057.0+43.0
5 Ole Miss110100%99.058.0+41.0
6 Vanderbilt220100%83.549.0+34.5
7 Auburn110100%92.059.0+33.0
8 Tennessee110100%90.059.0+31.0
9 Texas A&M110100%97.066.0+31.0
10 Kentucky110100%85.057.0+28.0
11 Mississippi St.220100%94.066.0+28.0
12 South Carolina110100%81.055.0+26.0
13 Alabama110100%96.074.0+22.0
14 Florida220100%82.562.0+20.5
15 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
16 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Southern Miss110100%82.035.0+47.0
2 Texas State220100%101.060.5+40.5
3 Old Dominion220100%76.048.0+28.0
4 Marshall110100%92.065.0+27.0
5 Georgia Southern110100%67.055.0+12.0
6 Arkansas State110100%71.070.0+1.0
7 Appalachian State21150%78.553.0+25.5
8 Louisiana Monroe21150%88.569.0+19.5
9 South Alabama21150%80.083.0-3.0
10 Georgia State2020%70.076.5-6.5
11 James Madison1010%77.086.0-9.0
12 Troy1010%60.071.0-11.0
13 Louisiana Lafayette1010%61.075.0-14.0
14 Coastal Carolina2020%61.092.0-31.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Kentucky395089
James Madison394180
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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