PythiaBasketballBETA
Liga A· Polideportivo Cincuentenario
La Union will host Atenas on 15 November 2026 in the Liga A, with the Pythia model designating La Union as the favourite and projecting a 73% chance of a home win, a 27% chance for Atenas, and a 72% probability that La Union will cover the -1.0 spread while the over on the 160.75 total is expected at 50%; the game is projected to end 84-77 with a total of 160.8 points and a 4% chance of overtime. La Union, 2-4 overall with 78.2 points scored and 83.2 allowed per game, sits 14th in the league and has a 1-1 home record, scoring 71.5 and allowing 65.5 at home; in the last five games La Union won twice and lost three, including a 57-93 loss to Lanus away, a 93-97 loss to Boca Juniors away, and a 75-57 home win over Argentino. Atenas, 5-2 overall with 84.4 points scored and 79.0 allowed per game, is 5th in the standings and 1-1 on the road, scoring 84.0 and allowing 85.0 away; in their last five games they won once and lost four, with a 83-105 loss to Penarol at home, an 81-55 home win over San Lorenzo, and a 71-99 loss to Goes away. Historically, La Union has won seven of ten meetings against Atenas, though Atenas last defeated La Union 84-82 on 17 April 2026.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 78.2 | 83.2 | 161.3 | -5.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 71.5 | 65.5 | 137.0 | +6.0 | 50% |
| Season away (4) | 81.5 | 92.0 | 173.5 | -10.5 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.6 | 84.3 | 165.9 | -2.7 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.6 | 81.4 | 158.0 | -4.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 75.0 | 88.2 | 163.2 | -13.2 | 20% |
| vs Similar (23) | 82.3 | 82.6 | 164.9 | -0.3 | 48% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 76.0 | 84.0 | 160.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 84.4 | 79.0 | 163.4 | +5.4 | 71% |
| Season at home (5) | 84.6 | 76.6 | 161.2 | +8.0 | 80% |
| Season away (2) | 84.0 | 85.0 | 169.0 | -1.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.5 | 85.7 | 163.2 | -8.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.8 | 89.4 | 166.2 | -12.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 78.2 | 88.4 | 166.6 | -10.2 | 22% |
| vs Similar (3) | 76.3 | 73.3 | 149.7 | +3.0 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 82.4 | 79.7 | 162.1 | +2.8 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.0 | 42.2 | 84.2 | -0.2 | 53% | 70% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.1 | 40.8 | 83.9 | +2.3 | 67% | 80% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 40.9 | 43.6 | 84.5 | -2.7 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.5 | 42.6 | 83.1 | -2.1 | 50% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.2 | 40.0 | 80.2 | +0.2 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (5) | 37.8 | 46.4 | 84.2 | -8.6 | 40% | 80% |
| vs Similar (23) | 42.8 | 41.4 | 84.2 | +1.4 | 57% | 70% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 43.5 | 41.0 | 84.5 | +2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.1 | 42.7 | 82.9 | -2.6 | 37% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.6 | 42.2 | 81.8 | -2.7 | 25% | 44% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 40.8 | 43.3 | 84.1 | -2.5 | 50% | 64% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.8 | 45.6 | 84.4 | -6.8 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 47.2 | 84.8 | -9.6 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 40.3 | 45.1 | 85.3 | -4.8 | 33% | 67% |
| vs Similar (3) | 36.0 | 36.3 | 72.3 | -0.3 | 33% | 0% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (9) | 41.2 | 40.2 | 81.4 | +1.0 | 44% | 44% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Union (regulation) | 70.6% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.81 | - | - | - | +23.3pp |
| La Union -1 | 72.4% | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.83 | - | - | - | +22.7pp |
| La Union win | 73.1% | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +22.2pp |
| Atenas under 86.5 | 82.3% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +14.2pp |
| La Union over 77.5 | 73.6% | 1.50 | 1.54 | 1.50 | 1.45 | - | - | +13.2pp |
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 33.6 | 19.8 | 54.4% | 39.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.0 | 8.0 | 32.6% | 24.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 24.5 | 18.9 | 72.7% | 18.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.2 | 20.6 | 54.4% | 41.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.8 | 7.7 | 32.6% | 23.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 14.8 | 10.4 | 72.7% | 10.4 |
La Union
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | La Union v Atenas | 82-84 |
| 06/11/25 | Atenas v La Union | 70-87 |
| 25/04/25 | Atenas v La Union | 68-87 |
| 09/01/25 | La Union v Atenas | 77-81 |
| 03/02/23 | La Union v Atenas | 72-69 |
| 20/10/22 | Atenas v La Union | 73-75 |
| 03/02/22 | La Union v Atenas | 91-83 |
| 27/01/22 | Atenas v La Union | 88-73 |
| 24/09/21 | Atenas v La Union | 58-62 |
| 15/01/21 | La Union v Atenas | 89-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Lanus | 57-93 |
| 09/11/26 | A | Boca Juniors | 93-97 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Argentino | 75-57 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Racing de Chivilcoy | 68-74 OT |
| 06/10/26 | A | Platense | 90-86 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Gimnasia | 86-92 |
| 03/05/26 | A | Independiente de Oliva | 92-97 |
| 01/05/26 | A | Independiente de Oliva | 78-83 |
| 27/04/26 | H | Independiente de Oliva | 86-62 |
| 25/04/26 | H | Independiente de Oliva | 91-102 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Penarol | 83-105 |
| 13/11/26 | H | San Lorenzo | 81-55 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Goes | 71-99 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Gimnasia | 76-79 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Larranaga | 73-109 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Racing de Chivilcoy | 95-94 OT |
| 31/10/26 | H | Aguada | 57-84 |
| 26/10/26 | A | Union Atletica | 82-73 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Lanus | 80-69 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Nacional | 77-90 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLL | 33% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | LWLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 25% |
| Points / game | 78.2 | 71.5 | 81.5 |
| Allowed / game | 83.2 | 65.5 | 92.0 |
| Point differential | -5.0 | +6.0 | -10.5 |
| Avg total | 161.3 | 137.0 | 173.5 |
| Over 160.75 | 50% | 0% | 75% |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 17% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 71% |
| Home | WWWLW | 80% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Win % | 71% | 80% | 50% |
| Points / game | 84.4 | 84.6 | 84.0 |
| Allowed / game | 79.0 | 76.6 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | +5.4 | +8.0 | -1.0 |
| Avg total | 163.4 | 161.2 | 169.0 |
| Over 160.75 | 43% | 40% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 40% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 75% (4) | 67% (3) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 14% | 20% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quimsa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 85.2 | 75.8 | +9.5 |
| 2 |  Penarol | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 82.1 | 74.8 | +7.4 |
| 3 |  Gimnasia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 77.2 | 74.0 | +3.2 |
| 4 |  Instituto de Cordoba | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 77.9 | 76.5 | +1.4 |
| 5 | Atenas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 84.4 | 79.0 | +5.4 |
| 6 |  Boca Juniors | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 89.5 | 83.2 | +6.2 |
| 7 |  Independiente de Oliva | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 99.5 | 89.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Olimpico | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.4 | +1.4 |
| 9 |  Argentino | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 77.9 | 79.5 | -1.6 |
| 10 |  Obera TC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.0 | 83.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 76.9 | 78.6 | -1.8 |
| 12 |  Lanus | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36% | 78.5 | 79.3 | -0.7 |
| 13 |  Racing de Chivilcoy | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 79.4 | 82.8 | -3.3 |
| 14 | La Union | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 78.2 | 83.2 | -5.0 |
| 15 |  Regatas | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 73.3 | 75.7 | -2.4 |
| 16 |  Ferro | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 81.5 | 85.6 | -4.1 |
| 17 |  San Lorenzo | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 70.1 | 83.2 | -13.1 |
| 18 |  San Martin | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 81.6 | 87.4 | -5.9 |
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