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Leiden vs Crailsheim Merlins Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 16 Mar 2022
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 85-77
23-24 30-25 19-11 13-17
Position#10
Record8-5
FormWWLLW
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game79.2
Leiden 🏆
vs
Position#7
Record8-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game73.8
EuropeFIBA Europe CupFIBA Europe Cup - Quarter-finals
European cup2021
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Crailsheim Merlins winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Legia
#3
W
77-59
77
59
+18
no box
A02/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Den Helder
#16
W
89-68
89
68
+21
no box
H05/02
BNXT League
Parma Perm
#6
W
79-75
79
75
+4
no box
H09/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Den Bosch
#3
W
83-80
83
80
+3
no box
A11/02
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#3
L
72-77
72
77
-5
no box
H13/02
DBL Cup
QSTA Utd
#18
W
88-82
88
82
+6
no box
A17/02
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#8
W
94-70
94
70
+24
no box
A19/02
DBL
Mechelen
#3
L
93-98
93
98
-5
no box
A04/03
BNXT League
Crailsheim Merlins
#7
L
68-71
68
71
-3
no box
A09/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Belfius Mons
#6
W
80-74
80
74
+6
no box
A12/03
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
13-19
16-12
24-12
18-15
25-20
19-12
27-21
20-14
24-22
17-16
18-23
18-24
25-17
15-22
25-17
16-12
18-21
15-21
23-23
25-21
24-12
20-20
19-29
22-15
15-18
31-25
26-12
18-28
20-14
26-29
29-27
15-11
22-23
15-16
16-21
12-21
25-18
26-14
17-21
157.7Avg total
82.3Scored
75.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)78.879.2158.0-0.362%
Season at home (6)78.878.8157.7+0.067%
Season away (7)78.979.4158.3-0.657%
Last 10 (10)82.375.4157.7+6.970%
Last 5 (5)84.679.0163.6+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)75.777.8153.5-2.250%
vs Similar (6)85.584.2169.7+1.367%
vs Weaker (18)87.566.3153.8+21.289%
This opponent (Crailsheim Merlins) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crailsheim MerlinsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMerlins
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#23
W
79-69
79
69
+10
no box
A02/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Kyiv Basket
#21
W
82-62
82
62
+20
no box
H08/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#4
L
70-79
70
79
-9
no box
A11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Alba Berlin
#1
L
74-106
74
106
-32
63avg 79
A13/02
BBL
Giessen
#18
W
87-81
87
81
+6
74avg 79
H15/02
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#3
W
85-71
85
71
+14
no box
A19/02
German Cup
Alba Berlin
#1
L
76-86
76
86
-10
no box
H20/02
German Cup
Bonn
#2
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A05/03
BBL
Leiden
#10
W
71-68
71
68
+3
no box
H09/03
FIBA Europe Cup
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#12
L
74-91
74
91
-17
61avg 79
A12/03
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-15
31-21
20-18
11-15
28-8
11-15
16-14
27-25
24-25
19-17
13-20
14-17
17-25
22-22
17-34
18-25
22-29
19-19
30-18
16-15
19-21
27-15
11-21
28-14
22-15
21-24
15-25
18-22
23-23
29-28
21-22
23-28
11-15
23-22
16-15
21-16
15-22
17-25
17-23
25-21
160.8Avg total
79.4Scored
81.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)79.873.8153.6+6.162%
Season at home (7)79.474.6154.0+4.957%
Season away (6)80.372.8153.2+7.567%
Last 10 (10)79.481.4160.8-2.050%
Last 5 (5)80.483.4163.8-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.480.1161.6+1.367%
vs Similar (10)84.482.9167.3+1.560%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)82.373.9156.2+8.464%
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
LeidenCrailsheim Merlins
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Legia
#3
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A02/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Den Helder
#16
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H05/02
BNXT League
Parma Perm
#6
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H09/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Den Bosch
#3
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A11/02
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#3
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H13/02
DBL Cup
QSTA Utd
#18
W
49-33
49
33
+16
A17/02
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#8
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A19/02
DBL
Mechelen
#3
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A04/03
BNXT League
Crailsheim Merlins
#7
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Belfius Mons
#6
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A12/03
BNXT League
76.0Avg total
39.9Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.536.176.7+4.473%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.737.679.3+4.179%-
Last 30 away (16)39.534.974.4+4.669%-
Last 10 (10)39.936.176.0+3.880%-
Last 5 (5)39.636.275.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)40.838.579.3+2.367%-
vs Similar (6)39.840.280.0-0.350%-
vs Weaker (18)40.734.074.7+6.783%-
This opponent (Crailsheim Merlins) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crailsheim MerlinsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#23
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A02/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Kyiv Basket
#21
W
39-23
39
23
+16
H08/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#4
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A11/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Alba Berlin
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A13/02
BBL
Giessen
#18
L
41-48
41
48
-7
H15/02
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#3
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A19/02
German Cup
Alba Berlin
#1
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H20/02
German Cup
Bonn
#2
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A05/03
BBL
Leiden
#10
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H09/03
FIBA Europe Cup
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#12
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A12/03
BBL
82.3Avg total
41.7Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.039.882.8+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.638.880.4+2.850%-
Last 30 away (14)44.540.985.4+3.671%-
Last 10 (10)41.740.682.3+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)41.442.083.4-0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)43.239.382.6+3.978%-
vs Similar (10)43.842.986.7+0.950%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)42.037.479.4+4.655%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.518.5
53.6%
52.5%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.57.0
32.6%
34.1%21.0
🏀 Free throws16.511.5
69.7%
73.2%11.5
They take 56.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Crailsheim Merlinstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Crailsheim Merlins: 84.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.119.3
56.6%
52.5%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.910.3
38.3%
34.1%30.9
🏀 Free throws19.515.3
78.5%
73.2%15.3
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 2/10 games with a box score before 16 Mar 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leiden
WLLWWLWWWW
Crailsheim Merlins
LWLLWWLLWW
#10
League position
#7
-2.7
Net rating
-1.9
95.2
Offensive rating
115.4
98.0
Defensive rating
117.3
51.8%
Effective FG%
57.0%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
27.5%
Turnover %
14.9%
35.6%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.32
32.6%
3-point %
38.3%
68.6%
Assist %
59.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence95.2 · 115.4Defence98.0 · 117.3Shooting51.8% · 57.0%3-point %32.6% · 38.3%Ball care27.5% · 14.9%Off. rebounds35.6% · 20.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Leiden   ■ Crailsheim Merlins
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Leiden wins
1
Crailsheim Merlins wins
DateGameScore
09/03/22Crailsheim Merlins v Leiden71-68
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/22ABelfius Mons80-74
09/03/22ACrailsheim Merlins68-71
04/03/22AMechelen93-98
19/02/22ALWD Basket94-70
17/02/22AQSTA Utd88-82
13/02/22HDen Bosch72-77
11/02/22ADen Bosch83-80
09/02/22HParma Perm79-75
05/02/22HDen Helder89-68
02/02/22ALegia77-59
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/22As.Oliver Wurzburg74-91
09/03/22HLeiden71-68
05/03/22ABonn96-101
20/02/22HAlba Berlin76-86
19/02/22ABasketball Braunschweig85-71
15/02/22HGiessen87-81
13/02/22AAlba Berlin74-106
11/02/22AReggiana70-79
08/02/22HKyiv Basket82-62
02/02/22AAntwerp Giants79-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leiden
FIBA Europe Cup 2021
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL62%
HomeLWLWW67%
AwayLWWWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %62%67%57%
Points / game78.878.878.9
Allowed / game79.278.879.4
Point differential-0.3+0.0-0.6
Avg total158.0157.7158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%0%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)100% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Crailsheim Merlins
FIBA Europe Cup 2021
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeWLWWW57%
AwayWWLWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %62%57%67%
Points / game79.879.480.3
Allowed / game73.874.672.8
Point differential+6.1+4.9+7.5
Avg total153.6154.0153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%29%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bahcesehir Kol.1413193%82.072.2+9.8
2 Saratov1210283%93.280.2+13.0
3 Legia1310377%77.170.6+6.5
4 Reggiana1310377%75.171.3+3.8
5 Benfica149564%78.976.2+2.6
6 Crailsheim Merlins138562%79.873.8+6.1
7 Leiden138562%78.879.2-0.3
8 Parma Perm127558%82.577.5+5.0
9 Sporting CP148657%74.669.9+4.7
10 CSM Oradea148657%71.670.4+1.2
11 Szedeak21150%84.580.0+4.5
12 Bayreuth147750%83.181.4+1.6
13 FC Porto84450%70.570.0+0.5
14 Ironi Eilat63350%82.882.3+0.5
15 Parnu21150%77.076.5+0.5
16 Bakken Bears147750%84.584.3+0.2
17 Hapoel Haifa21150%80.080.0+0.0
18 London Lions126650%80.382.1-1.8
19 Swans Gmunden21150%68.070.0-2.0
20 Nes Ziona21150%78.080.5-2.5
21 Kyiv Basket126650%68.471.5-3.1
22 Ionikos63350%78.382.8-4.5
23 Antwerp Giants125742%80.378.9+1.4
24 Donar Groningen83538%72.474.6-2.2
25 Iraklis83538%74.078.8-4.8
26 Trefl Sopot145936%75.776.6-0.9
27 Mornar Bar62433%80.778.3+2.3
28 Belfius Mons62433%72.376.8-4.5
29 Basket Zaragoza62433%80.785.8-5.2
30 Peristeri62433%74.379.5-5.2
31 Den Bosch62433%73.380.0-6.7
32 Rilski Sportist62433%79.285.8-6.7
33 Minsk62433%80.588.5-8.0
34 Szolnoki Olaj61517%68.575.2-6.7
35 Opava61517%81.788.7-7.0
36 Gilboa Galil61517%73.891.8-18.0
37 Enisey1010%80.085.0-5.0
38 Vienna Basket1010%67.072.0-5.0
39 BC Dnipro1010%82.088.0-6.0
40 Voluntari1010%77.083.0-6.0
41 Keravnos1010%58.070.0-12.0
42 Kapfenberg Bulls6060%72.087.5-15.5
43 TFT Skopje1010%76.092.0-16.0
44 Academic Plovdiv1010%75.095.0-20.0
45 Kumanovo1010%60.083.0-23.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 45 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leiden2330191385
Crailsheim Merlins2425111777
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