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Leiden vs Mornar Bar Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 10 Nov 2021
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 78-73
17-16 21-23 17-12 23-22
Position#10
Record2-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game78.0
Leiden 🏆
vs
Position#27
Record2-2
FormLWLLW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game77.2
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 5
European cup2021
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mornar Bar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Amsterdam
#6
W
88-58
88
58
+30
no box
A30/09
DBL
Feyenoord
#20
W
83-50
83
50
+33
no box
A06/10
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#5
W
101-83
101
83
+18
no box
H09/10
DBL
Iraklis
#25
W
71-63
71
63
+8
no box
H13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Zwolle
#3
W
75-68
75
68
+7
no box
A17/10
DBL
Mornar Bar
#27
L
74-87
74
87
-13
no box
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
69-79
69
79
-10
no box
H27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Amsterdam
#6
W
101-63
101
63
+38
no box
H30/10
DBL
Iraklis
#25
W
92-83
92
83
+9
no box
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
BAL Weert
#9
W
85-59
85
59
+26
no box
A06/11
DBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-14
23-20
21-9
19-15
18-8
23-14
24-15
18-13
16-21
24-17
33-14
28-31
25-24
12-14
16-13
18-12
21-15
15-24
17-15
22-14
28-25
13-20
23-17
10-25
21-21
12-16
16-22
20-20
27-21
23-24
22-13
29-5
21-16
21-12
21-24
29-31
15-16
23-21
29-12
18-10
153.2Avg total
83.9Scored
69.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.578.0154.5-1.550%
Season at home (2)70.071.0141.0-1.050%
Season away (2)83.085.0168.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)83.969.3153.2+14.680%
Last 5 (5)84.274.2158.4+10.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)69.079.0148.0-10.00%
vs Similar ◀ (2)85.079.5164.5+5.550%
vs Weaker (25)88.376.3164.6+12.080%
This opponent (Mornar Bar) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mornar BarLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBar
Date
Competition
KK Krka Novo mesto
#14
L
80-89
80
89
-9
70avg 73
A02/10
ABA League
Borac Mozzart
#9
L
85-90
85
90
-5
72avg 73
H09/10
ABA League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
68-75
68
75
-7
no box
A12/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FMP Beograd
#6
L
81-83
81
83
-2
68avg 73
A17/10
ABA League
Leiden
#10
W
87-74
87
74
+13
no box
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
69-77
69
77
-8
58avg 73
H24/10
ABA League
Iraklis
#25
W
88-65
88
65
+23
no box
H27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Buducnost
#3
L
69-85
69
85
-16
61avg 73
A31/10
ABA League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
86-95
86
95
-9
no box
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Igokea
#5
W
82-76 OT
82
76
+6
no box
H06/11
ABA League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-25
10-20
16-21
26-23
22-23
15-22
18-15
30-30
11-23
13-14
21-15
23-23
27-20
14-21
21-19
19-23
25-28
20-13
17-23
25-10
25-20
13-23
14-15
17-19
25-24
22-13
22-15
19-13
18-18
18-20
18-26
15-21
23-34
25-18
20-14
18-29
26-20
16-19
22-20
8-13
160.4Avg total
79.5Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)82.277.2159.5+5.050%
Season at home (3)87.078.0165.0+9.067%
Season away (1)68.075.0143.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)79.580.9160.4-1.430%
Last 5 (5)78.879.6158.4-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)80.884.9165.7-4.233%
vs Similar ◀ (11)81.386.1167.4-4.827%
vs Weaker (5)72.263.8136.0+8.460%
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: +6.8+6.8Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -0.4-0.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: -0.5-0.5Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: +6.8+6.8Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -0.4-0.4
LeidenMornar Bar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Amsterdam
#6
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A30/09
DBL
Feyenoord
#20
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A06/10
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#5
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H09/10
DBL
Iraklis
#25
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Zwolle
#3
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A17/10
DBL
Mornar Bar
#27
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Amsterdam
#6
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H30/10
DBL
Iraklis
#25
W
42-28
42
28
+14
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
BAL Weert
#9
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A06/11
DBL
76.9Avg total
40.6Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.439.582.9+3.850%-
Last 30 at home (13)46.441.387.7+5.162%-
Last 30 away (17)41.138.279.2+2.941%-
Last 10 (10)40.636.376.9+4.360%-
Last 5 (5)40.838.479.2+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)33.037.070.0-4.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (2)49.539.088.5+10.550%-
vs Weaker (25)43.639.483.0+4.256%-
This opponent (Mornar Bar) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mornar BarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
KK Krka Novo mesto
#14
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A02/10
ABA League
Borac Mozzart
#9
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H09/10
ABA League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
24-37
24
37
-13
A12/10
FIBA Europe Cup
FMP Beograd
#6
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A17/10
ABA League
Leiden
#10
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Crvena zvezda
#1
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H24/10
ABA League
Iraklis
#25
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Buducnost
#3
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A31/10
ABA League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Igokea
#5
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H06/11
ABA League
81.4Avg total
39.6Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)41.444.786.1-3.331%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.745.288.9-1.543%-
Last 30 away (15)39.244.383.5-5.120%-
Last 10 (10)39.641.881.4-2.230%-
Last 5 (5)42.241.884.0+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.843.583.3-3.725%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)42.645.988.5-3.327%-
vs Weaker (4)45.246.892.0-1.550%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.518.5
53.6%
52.5%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.57.0
32.6%
34.1%21.0
🏀 Free throws16.511.5
69.7%
73.2%11.5
They take 56.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mornar Bartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mornar Bar: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.418.4
55.1%
52.5%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.310.0
39.5%
34.1%30.0
🏀 Free throws18.013.1
72.8%
73.2%13.1
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 2/10 games with a box score before 10 Nov 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leiden
WWWLLWWWWW
Mornar Bar
WLLWLWLLLL
#10
League position
#27
-2.7
Net rating
-10.6
95.2
Offensive rating
111.7
98.0
Defensive rating
122.4
51.8%
Effective FG%
56.9%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
58.2%
27.5%
Turnover %
14.5%
35.6%
Off. rebound %
20.6%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.31
32.6%
3-point %
39.5%
68.6%
Assist %
54.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence95.2 · 111.7Defence98.0 · 122.4Shooting51.8% · 56.9%3-point %32.6% · 39.5%Ball care27.5% · 14.5%Off. rebounds35.6% · 20.6%Free throws0.29 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 30%
■ Leiden   ■ Mornar Bar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Leiden wins
1
Mornar Bar wins
DateGameScore
20/10/21Mornar Bar v Leiden87-74
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/21ABAL Weert85-59
03/11/21AIraklis92-83
30/10/21HAmsterdam101-63
27/10/21HBahcesehir Kol.69-79
20/10/21AMornar Bar74-87
17/10/21AZwolle75-68
13/10/21HIraklis71-63
09/10/21HFeyenoord101-83
06/10/21AFeyenoord83-50
30/09/21AAmsterdam88-58
Mornar Barlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/21HIgokea82-76 OT
03/11/21HBahcesehir Kol.86-95
31/10/21ABuducnost69-85
27/10/21HIraklis88-65
24/10/21HCrvena zvezda69-77
20/10/21HLeiden87-74
17/10/21AFMP Beograd81-83
12/10/21ABahcesehir Kol.68-75
09/10/21HBorac Mozzart85-90
02/10/21AKK Krka Novo mesto80-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leiden
FIBA Europe Cup 2021
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLW50%
HomeWL50%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game76.570.083.0
Allowed / game78.071.085.0
Point differential-1.5-1.0-2.0
Avg total154.5141.0168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mornar Bar
FIBA Europe Cup 2021
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWL50%
HomeWWL67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game82.287.068.0
Allowed / game77.278.075.0
Point differential+5.0+9.0-7.0
Avg total159.5165.0143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Saratov440100%96.278.0+18.2
2 London Lions550100%84.669.4+15.2
3 Legia550100%76.065.8+10.2
4 Bahcesehir Kol.550100%79.870.4+9.4
5 Bayreuth76186%83.373.9+9.4
6 Benfica65183%82.877.0+5.8
7 Sporting CP43175%78.563.0+15.5
8 Parma Perm43175%81.070.5+10.5
9 Reggiana43175%85.074.5+10.5
10 Crailsheim Merlins53260%83.276.6+6.6
11 Bakken Bears53260%86.284.2+2.0
12 Ironi Eilat53260%82.881.0+1.8
13 Antwerp Giants53260%77.877.2+0.6
14 Kyiv Basket53260%72.675.6-3.0
15 FC Porto74357%69.068.3+0.7
16 Mornar Bar42250%82.277.2+5.0
17 Szedeak21150%84.580.0+4.5
18 Parnu21150%77.076.5+0.5
19 Hapoel Haifa21150%80.080.0+0.0
20 Leiden42250%76.578.0-1.5
21 Swans Gmunden21150%68.070.0-2.0
22 Nes Ziona21150%78.080.5-2.5
23 Trefl Sopot73443%78.974.9+4.0
24 CSM Oradea52340%67.868.4-0.6
25 Peristeri52340%78.279.8-1.6
26 Rilski Sportist52340%82.686.2-3.6
27 Den Bosch52340%73.077.6-4.6
28 Minsk52340%80.687.6-7.0
29 Ionikos52340%75.483.6-8.2
30 Iraklis72529%72.778.3-5.6
31 Donar Groningen72529%70.676.9-6.3
32 Belfius Mons41325%70.076.0-6.0
33 Szolnoki Olaj51420%68.274.6-6.4
34 Basket Zaragoza51420%80.487.6-7.2
35 Opava51420%81.289.2-8.0
36 Gilboa Galil51420%74.490.2-15.8
37 Enisey1010%80.085.0-5.0
38 Vienna Basket1010%67.072.0-5.0
39 BC Dnipro1010%82.088.0-6.0
40 Voluntari1010%77.083.0-6.0
41 Keravnos1010%58.070.0-12.0
42 Kapfenberg Bulls5050%74.688.0-13.4
43 TFT Skopje1010%76.092.0-16.0
44 Academic Plovdiv1010%75.095.0-20.0
45 Kumanovo1010%60.083.0-23.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 45 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leiden1721172378
Mornar Bar1623122273
← all games of the day
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