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Lok. Plovdiv vs Shumen Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 23 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 101-78
Projected total 178.7
Scheduled
Position#4
Record4-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game78.0
Lok. Plovdiv
Bulgaria
Vs
97%
■ LOK. 97%■ SHUM 3%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
5.6/10
Above normal
Shumen
Bulgaria
Position#6
Record4-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.0
Allowed / game90.2
BulgariaNBLRound 7· Hristo Bonev
Other2026-27
Meetings · Lok. Plovdiv v Shumen
23 Nov 2026
LOK. v SHUM
upcoming
18 Oct 2025
LOK.96
SHUM59
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Lok. Plovdiv host Shumen in the NBL. Pythia makes Lok. Plovdiv the favourite at 97% and projects 101-78, about 179 points in all. Overtime chance: 1%. Lok. Plovdiv are 4-1 this season (88.2 scored, 78.0 allowed a game), form WLWWL; Shumen are 4-1 this season (94.0 scored, 90.2 allowed a game), form LWWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lok. Plovdiv win
97.1%fair 1.03
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Shumen win
2.9%fair 34.25
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:41 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Lok. PlovdivBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPlovdiv
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
92-73
92
73
+19
85avg 84
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
79-69
79
69
+10
73avg 84
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#11
W
98-95 OT
98
95
+3
85avg 84
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
L
84-86
84
86
-2
67avg 84
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
87-65
87
65
+22
83avg 84
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
95-83
95
83
+12
92avg 84
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
66avg 84
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
76-72
76
72
+4
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
85-69
85
69
+16
no box
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
L
83-85
83
85
-2
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
23-19
29-18
19-21
17-20
26-18
20-15
16-16
24-21
15-19
26-28
22-19
16-14
20-21
24-25
24-26
22-24
22-11
18-20
25-10
24-11
21-20
24-26
26-26
14-25
25-20
17-20
23-23
13-19
23-11
14-23
26-19
24-18
22-14
19-15
20-22
24-20
28-22
17-22
14-21
164.3Avg total
85.8Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)88.278.0166.2+10.280%
Season at home (2)86.067.0153.0+19.0100%
Season away (3)89.785.3175.0+4.367%
Last 10 (10)85.878.5164.3+7.370%
Last 5 (5)83.679.4163.0+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)84.587.5172.0-3.038%
vs Similar (1)85.069.0154.0+16.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)90.478.6169.0+11.892%
This opponent (Shumen) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShumenBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormShumen
Date
Competition
Levski
#10
L
74-81
74
81
-7
64avg 73
A04/04
NBL
Spartak Pleven
#5
L
55-102
55
102
-47
34avg 73
A09/04
NBL
Balkan
#1
L
65-84
65
84
-19
58avg 73
H16/04
NBL
Minyor
#7
L
96-113
96
113
-17
87avg 73
A20/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
L
87-104
87
104
-17
78avg 73
H25/04
NBL
Minyor
#2
L
101-123
101
123
-22
77avg 73
A10/10
NBL
Botev 2012
#9
W
87-84
87
84
+3
79avg 73
H16/10
NBL
Levski
#12
W
90-85
90
85
+5
87avg 73
A24/10
NBL
Yambol
#13
W
97-70
97
70
+27
no box
H04/11
NBL
CSKA Sofia
#10
W
95-89
95
89
+6
no box
A07/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
27-18
11-22
20-22
16-25
12-19
18-34
9-24
19-15
20-19
14-22
12-28
19-31
28-24
27-27
22-31
26-17
18-13
10-39
33-35
18-36
28-23
28-33
27-31
27-15
17-23
21-25
22-21
24-15
22-28
26-26
18-16
25-12
26-20
28-19
18-19
23-21
26-25
26-20
20-23
178.2Avg total
84.7Scored
93.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)94.090.2184.2+3.880%
Season at home (2)92.077.0169.0+15.0100%
Season away (3)95.399.0194.3-3.767%
Last 10 (10)84.793.5178.2-8.840%
Last 5 (5)94.090.2184.2+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)82.395.4177.7-13.29%
vs Similar (3)77.082.0159.0-5.033%
vs Weaker (4)92.282.0174.2+10.2100%
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
79.0%
Under 166
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
68.8%
Under 171
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176
Over 176
56.8%
Under 176
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Lok. Plovdiv total 83.5
Over 83.5
95.8%
Under 83.5
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 87.5
Over 87.5
90.8%
Under 87.5
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 91.5
Over 91.5
82.4%
Under 91.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shumen total 79.5
Over 79.5
44.0%
Under 79.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shumen total 83.5
Over 83.5
29.0%
Under 83.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shumen total 87.5
Over 87.5
17.1%
Under 87.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Lok. Plovdiv -3
LOK. -3
95.8%
SHUM +3
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
LOK.
No market prices yet.
SHUM
No market prices yet.
Spread Lok. Plovdiv 0
LOK. 0
97.1%
SHUM 0
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
LOK.
No market prices yet.
SHUM
No market prices yet.
Spread Lok. Plovdiv +3
LOK. +3
98.2%
SHUM -3
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
LOK.
No market prices yet.
SHUM
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -5.8-5.8Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -4.9-4.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -5.8-5.8Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -4.9-4.9
Lok. PlovdivShumen
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Lok. PlovdivLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#11
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
78.6Avg total
42.4Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.540.785.2+3.870%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.838.584.2+7.288%-
Last 30 away (14)43.143.286.3-0.150%-
Last 10 (10)42.436.278.6+6.280%-
Last 5 (5)43.636.079.6+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)43.642.485.9+1.262%-
vs Similar (1)46.032.078.0+14.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)45.539.384.8+6.277%-
This opponent (Shumen) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShumenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Levski
#10
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A04/04
NBL
Spartak Pleven
#5
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A09/04
NBL
Balkan
#1
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H16/04
NBL
Minyor
#7
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A20/04
NBL
Cherno More
#3
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H25/04
NBL
Minyor
#2
L
46-59
46
59
-13
A10/10
NBL
Botev 2012
#9
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H16/10
NBL
Levski
#12
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A24/10
NBL
Yambol
#13
W
51-32
51
32
+19
H04/11
NBL
CSKA Sofia
#10
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A07/11
NBL
85.5Avg total
43.7Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.344.886.1-3.637%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.243.585.7-1.441%-
Last 30 away (13)40.146.586.6-6.531%-
Last 10 (10)43.741.885.5+1.970%-
Last 5 (5)47.243.690.8+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)40.146.686.7-6.522%-
vs Similar (3)42.038.080.0+4.067%-
vs Weaker (4)47.539.887.2+7.8100%-
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lok. Plovdivtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lok. Plovdiv: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.920.7
54.6%
55.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.78.4
31.5%
29.8%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.617.4
77.0%
71.2%17.4
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Shumentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Shumen: 79.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.521.4
52.8%
55.5%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.86.6
27.7%
29.8%19.8
🏀 Free throws24.717.0
68.8%
71.2%17.0
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lok. Plovdiv
LWWLWWLWWW
Shumen
WWWWLLLLLL
#4
League position
#6
+6.2
Net rating
-16.5
96.7
Offensive rating
88.3
90.5
Defensive rating
104.8
51.5%
Effective FG%
48.7%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
13.5%
Turnover %
17.0%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.38
31.5%
3-point %
27.7%
58.8%
Assist %
54.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence96.7 · 88.3Defence90.5 · 104.8Shooting51.5% · 48.7%3-point %31.5% · 27.7%Ball care13.5% · 17.0%Free throws0.35 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Lok. Plovdiv   ■ Shumen
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Lok. Plovdiv wins
0
Shumen wins
DateGameScore
19/03/26Shumen v Lok. Plovdiv83-94
28/12/25Shumen v Lok. Plovdiv89-107
18/10/25Lok. Plovdiv v Shumen96-59
Lok. Plovdivlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HVEF Riga83-85
07/11/26HCherno More85-69
04/11/26HNeftchi IK76-72
31/10/26ARilski Sportist79-88
28/10/26HFribourg Olympic95-83
24/10/26HPolytechnica87-65
20/10/26AMykonos84-86
17/10/26ABeroe98-95 OT
14/10/26HCSM Oradea79-69
11/10/26ASpartak Pleven92-73
Shumenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ACSKA Sofia95-89
04/11/26HYambol97-70
24/10/26ALevski90-85
16/10/26HBotev 201287-84
10/10/26AMinyor101-123
25/04/26HCherno More87-104
20/04/26AMinyor96-113
16/04/26HBalkan65-84
09/04/26ASpartak Pleven55-102
04/04/26ALevski74-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lok. Plovdiv
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game88.286.089.7
Allowed / game78.067.085.3
Point differential+10.2+19.0+4.3
Avg total166.2153.0175.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %20%0%33%
Shumen
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game94.092.095.3
Allowed / game90.277.099.0
Point differential+3.8+15.0-3.7
Avg total184.2169.0194.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Balkan550100%89.471.6+17.8
2 Minyor660100%106.790.8+15.8
3 Rilski Sportist65183%90.874.3+16.5
4 Lok. Plovdiv54180%88.278.0+10.2
5 Botev Academic54180%91.082.6+8.4
6 Shumen54180%94.090.2+3.8
7 Cherno More64267%83.871.7+12.2
8 Spartak Pleven53260%82.476.8+5.6
9 Botev 201262433%79.890.2-10.3
10 CSKA Sofia51420%78.498.6-20.2
11 Beroe61517%90.787.8+2.8
12 Levski6060%79.292.7-13.5
13 Yambol6060%74.094.2-20.2
14 Polytechnica6060%70.094.7-24.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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