Longwood hosts N. Carolina Central on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Longwood the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win largely because their season record of 1-1 shows a higher points per game average of 98.0 than N. Carolina Central's 62.0, and their home game shows a 123.0 average against 67.0 allowed. Longwood has gone 1-0 at home, while N. Carolina Central has gone 0-1 on the road, and the last five games for Longwood are 3-2, including a 123-67 home win over Pfeiffer Falcons, whereas N. Carolina Central's last five are 2-3, with a recent 59-53 home win over Delaware State. Their five-meeting history is 3-2 in favour of Longwood, most recently 74-72 in December 2025. Pythia projects a 86-65 score, with Longwood covering the -11.5 line 79% of the time, and the over on the 148.5 total 57%. The overtime probability is 1%. Longwood's strong home offensive output and the model's high confidence make this a decisive outing.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Longwood winWon
95.9%fair 1.04
Best odds1.13
Implied86.5%
Edge+9.4pp
N. Carolina Central winLost
4.1%fair 24.14
Best odds7.25
Implied13.5%
Edge-9.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Longwood) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144Actual: Over 144
Over 144
67.9%
@ 1.50+5.4pp
Under 144
32.1%
@ 2.50-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 149 · main lineActual: Over 149
Over 149
55.8%
@ 1.95+5.6pp
Under 149
44.2%
@ 1.91-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 154Actual: Over 154
Over 154
43.2%
@ 2.65+8.1pp
Under 154
56.8%
@ 1.43-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Longwood total 76Actual: Longwood over 76
Over 76
85.1%
Under 76
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longwood total 80 · main linePush
Over 80
73.3%
@ 1.85+23.1pp
Under 80
26.7%
@ 1.87-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Longwood total 84Actual: Longwood under 84
Over 84
58.0%
Under 84
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina Central total 64Actual: N. Carolina Central over 64
Over 64
55.7%
Under 64
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina Central total 68 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central over 68
Over 68
39.2%
@ 1.85-11.1pp
Under 68
60.8%
@ 1.87+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
N. Carolina Central total 72Actual: N. Carolina Central over 72
Over 72
24.6%
Under 72
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Longwood -15.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +15.5
LONG -15.5
67.0%
@ 2.35+27.6pp
N. C +15.5
33.0%
@ 1.54-27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
N. C
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
Spread Longwood -12.5 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central +12.5
LONG -12.5
75.9%
@ 1.95+26.6pp
N. C +12.5
24.1%
@ 1.90-26.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
N. C
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Spread Longwood -9.5Actual: N. Carolina Central +9.5
LONG -9.5
83.3%
@ 1.57+23.6pp
N. C +9.5
16.7%
@ 2.35-23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LONG
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
N. C
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
LongwoodN. Carolina Central
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Longwood) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: N. Carolina Central win
LONG win
no forecast
@ 1.34
N. C win
no forecast
@ 3.25
2nd half Spread Longwood -4.5 · main lineActual: N. Carolina Central +4.5
LONG -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
N. C +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
LONG
no forecast
@ 1.38
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
N. C
no forecast
@ 3.30
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Longwood -14
72.3%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Longwood -14.5
70.1%
2.23
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+29.3pp
Lost
Longwood -13.5
73.1%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Longwood -13
75.2%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Longwood -12.5
75.9%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
+26.6pp
Lost
Longwood -12
78.0%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Longwood -11
80.5%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+24.5pp
Lost
Longwood -11.5
78.6%
1.77
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.76
+24.4pp
Lost
Longwood -10
82.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Longwood -9.5
83.3%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
Longwood over 80
73.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Push
Longwood -10.5
81.0%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.73
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Longwood -9
85.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Longwood -8.5
85.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Longwood -8
87.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Longwood over 79.5
74.2%
1.79
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.70
+21.2pp
Won
Longwood -7.5
87.2%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Longwood over 80.5
70.9%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+20.6pp
Lost
Longwood -7
88.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Lost
Longwood -6.5
89.0%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Longwood over 77.5
80.3%
1.51
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Longwood over 78.5
77.4%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Longwood -6
90.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Longwood -5.5
90.5%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Longwood -4.5
91.9%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Longwood over 74.5
87.6%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Longwood over 75.5
85.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Longwood over 76.5
83.0%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Longwood -4
93.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Longwood -5
91.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Push
Longwood -3.5
93.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Longwood (regulation)
95.1%
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Longwood over 73.5
89.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Longwood -2.5
94.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 71.5
73.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central under 72.5
76.2%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Lost
N. Carolina Central under 73.5
79.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Longwood +2.5
97.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Longwood win
95.9%
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
WilliamHill
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+9.4pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 75.5
84.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Longwood +7.5
98.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
N. Carolina Central under 77.5
88.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Over 140.5
74.9%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 142
72.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 143
70.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 142.5
70.8%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 141.5
72.9%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Over 141
74.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 51.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Longwood under 99.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 53.5
88.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Longwood under 97.5
87.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 55.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Longwood under 95.5
83.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 57.5
78.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 59.5
72.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
N. Carolina Central over 58.5
75.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Longwood under 93.5
77.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Longwood under 91.5
71.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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