Marshall faces Toledo on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Marshall as the clear favourite, giving it an 87% chance to win, largely because the Cardinals have a 1-0 record, averaging 92.0 points per game while allowing only 65.0, and sit at league position 96, whereas Toledo is 0-2, averaging 65.5 points and conceding 81.0, positioned 313; Marshall's sole home game saw a 92-65 victory, and their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 92-65 win over Buffalo, while Toledo's last five also contain two wins and three losses but their recent outings were two defeats, the most recent being a 61-91 loss to Michigan State; in head-to-head history Toledo leads 5-2, with the last meeting on 8 November 2025 ending 85-73 in favour of Marshall; Pythia projects a 84-71 score, 154.3 total points, and gives Marshall an 83% probability to cover the home line of -2.5, while the over on the 156.0 total has a 45% chance, and there is a 3% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marshall winLost
86.9%fair 1.15
Best odds1.71
Implied56.4%
Edge+30.5pp
Toledo winWon
13.1%fair 7.61
Best odds2.22
Implied43.6%
Edge-30.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Marshall) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
52.9%
@ 1.50-9.6pp
Under 153
47.1%
@ 2.50+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 158 · main lineActual: Under 158
Over 158
40.5%
@ 1.95-10.2pp
Under 158
59.5%
@ 1.93+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
29.0%
@ 2.60-6.8pp
Under 163
71.0%
@ 1.45+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Marshall total 76Push
Over 76
78.5%
Under 76
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall total 80 · main lineActual: Marshall under 80
Over 80
64.6%
@ 1.85+14.6pp
Under 80
35.4%
@ 1.85-14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marshall total 84Actual: Marshall under 84
Over 84
48.2%
Under 84
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 74Actual: Toledo over 74
Over 74
36.5%
Under 74
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 78 · main lineActual: Toledo over 78
Over 78
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 78
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Toledo total 81.5Actual: Toledo under 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Marshall -5.5Actual: Toledo +5.5
MARS -5.5
74.7%
@ 2.30+34.6pp
TOLE +5.5
25.3%
@ 1.55-34.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MARS
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
TOLE
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
Spread Marshall -2.5 · main lineActual: Toledo +2.5
MARS -2.5
82.6%
@ 1.93+32.6pp
TOLE +2.5
17.4%
@ 1.93-32.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MARS
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
TOLE
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Marshall +0.5Actual: Toledo -0.5
MARS +0.5
86.9%
TOLE -0.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
MARS
No market prices yet.
TOLE
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MarshallToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Marshall -4
79.9%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
1.94
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
Marshall -4.5
77.7%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07
-
+36.4pp
Lost
Marshall -3.5
80.4%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
-
+35.2pp
Lost
Marshall -6
73.9%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Lost
Marshall -5
77.0%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+34.9pp
Lost
Marshall -7
70.7%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+34.9pp
Lost
Marshall -3
82.2%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
1.94
1xBet
1.91
-
-
+34.8pp
Lost
Marshall -5.5
74.7%
2.30
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+34.6pp
Lost
Marshall -6.5
71.6%
2.50
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
Marshall (regulation)
85.1%
1.75
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Lost
Marshall -2.5
82.6%
1.89
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+32.6pp
Lost
Marshall -2
84.9%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Marshall -1
86.7%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Lost
Marshall -1.5
85.3%
1.75
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.71
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Marshall win
86.9%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.69
BetVictor
1.67
+30.5pp
Lost
Marshall +1
88.0%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Marshall +2
89.8%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Marshall +1.5
88.2%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.51
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Toledo under 77.5
74.9%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
+27.2pp
Lost
Toledo under 76.5
71.8%
2.22
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Marshall +2.5
90.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Marshall +3
91.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Marshall +3.5
91.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Marshall +4
92.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Toledo under 77
74.1%
1.84
1xBet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Marshall +4.5
92.5%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Marshall +5
93.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Push
Marshall +5.5
93.6%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Marshall +6.5
94.5%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Marshall +7.5
95.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Marshall over 76.5
76.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Marshall +12.5
98.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Marshall over 75.5
79.2%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Marshall over 77.5
73.0%
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Marshall over 74.5
81.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Marshall +17.5
99.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
73.6%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Under 166
77.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
71.6%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Under 166.5
77.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Marshall +22.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Under 165.5
75.6%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 164
73.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 163
71.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 165
75.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
79.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 172.5
86.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 177.5
92.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Marshall under 98.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Marshall under 99.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Marshall under 96.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Marshall under 94.5
86.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
84.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Marshall under 92.5
81.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
76.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Toledo over 60.5
84.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Marshall under 90.5
75.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Marshall under 89.5
72.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Toledo +22.5
80.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Toledo over 62.5
79.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Toledo over 64.5
72.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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