Michigan State faces Toledo on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates the Spartans as the clear favourite with a 97% chance of victory, driven by their 1-0 season record, 96.0 points per game and 59.0 points allowed per game, placing them 65th in the league, while Toledo sits 227th with a 0-1 record, 70.0 points per game and 71.0 points allowed per game. Michigan State has won all one game it has played, scoring 96.0 points and conceding 59.0, and has a 1-0 home record with a 96.0 points per game average; its last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 96-59 victory over Quinnipiac at home. Toledo's single game has been a loss, 70-71 to Arkansas State, and its road record is 0-1 with 70.0 points per game and 71.0 points allowed; its last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 66-64 win over Cordoba away. The teams have met twice before, both times Michigan State winning 92-69 in the most recent encounter on 16 December 2025. Pythia projects a score of 86-65, a total of 151.0 points, and a 45% probability that the over on the 153.0 line will be hit, with a 1% chance of overtime. The Spartans are expected to cover the spread.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Michigan State winWon
96.6%fair 1.04
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+1.8pp
Toledo winLost
3.4%fair 29.50
Best odds41.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-1.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148Actual: Over 148
Over 148
57.4%
@ 1.43-7.5pp
Under 148
42.6%
@ 2.65+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 153 · main lineActual: Under 153
Over 153
44.8%
@ 1.90-5.5pp
Under 153
55.2%
@ 1.94+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Over/Under 158Actual: Under 158
Over 158
32.7%
@ 2.50-4.8pp
Under 158
67.3%
@ 1.50+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Michigan State total 86Actual: Michigan State over 86
Over 86
51.4%
Under 86
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan State total 90 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 90
Over 90
35.0%
@ 1.85-15.0pp
Under 90
65.0%
@ 1.85+15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Michigan State total 94Actual: Michigan State under 94
Over 94
21.1%
Under 94
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 59Actual: Toledo over 59
Over 59
72.0%
Under 59
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 63 · main lineActual: Toledo under 63
Over 63
56.6%
@ 1.85+6.6pp
Under 63
43.4%
@ 1.85-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Toledo total 67Actual: Toledo under 67
Over 67
40.0%
Under 67
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Michigan State -30Push
MICH -30
no forecast
@ 2.15
TOLE +30
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
2.15
TOLE
Bet365
1.62
Spread Michigan State -27 · main lineActual: Michigan State -27
MICH -27
no forecast
@ 1.85
TOLE +27
no forecast
@ 1.96
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
TOLE
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Spread Michigan State -24Actual: Michigan State -24
MICH -24
41.5%
@ 1.58-18.8pp
TOLE +24
58.5%
@ 2.40+18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.54
TOLE
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Michigan StateToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Michigan State win
MICH win
no forecast
@ 1.08
TOLE win
no forecast
@ 8.25
2nd half Spread Michigan State -12.5 · main lineActual: Toledo +12.5
MICH -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
TOLE +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Michigan State (regulation)
MICH
no forecast
@ 1.09
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
TOLE
no forecast
@ 7.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Michigan State under 93.5
76.6%
1.49
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Michigan State under 92.5
73.4%
1.54
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Michigan State under 95.5
82.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Michigan State under 94.5
79.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Michigan State under 97.5
87.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Michigan State under 96.5
84.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Michigan State under 99.5
90.8%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Michigan State under 98.5
89.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Michigan State (regulation)
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Under 159.5
70.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 160
71.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 160.5
72.4%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 161
73.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Toledo over 56.5
79.2%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Toledo over 57.5
76.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Toledo over 58.5
73.0%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Toledo over 55.5
82.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 161.5
74.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 178.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 177.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Toledo over 53.5
86.7%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
91.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 163.5
78.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Michigan State win
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
86.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
76.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Michigan State over 70.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Toledo over 54.5
84.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Michigan State over 71.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 167.5
84.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Michigan State over 72.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Toledo under 78.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Toledo under 79.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Michigan State over 73.5
90.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 128.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Toledo under 77.5
90.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Michigan State -6.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
87.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Toledo under 76.5
88.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Michigan State over 74.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Michigan State over 75.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Toledo under 75.5
86.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
86.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Toledo under 74.5
83.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Michigan State over 76.5
84.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
79.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Toledo under 73.5
81.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Michigan State over 77.5
81.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
70.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Toledo under 71.5
75.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Toledo under 72.5
78.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Toledo under 70.5
72.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Over 138.5
78.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Michigan State -11.5
81.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Michigan State over 78.5
78.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Michigan State over 79.5
75.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Michigan State over 80.5
72.3%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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