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Maxima Roma vs Treviso Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 89-85
Projected total 174.7
Scheduled
Position#4
Record5-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game88.1
Allowed / game83.7
Maxima Roma
Italy
Vs
65%
35%
■ MRO 65%■ TRV 35%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.6/10
Around normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Treviso
Italy
Position#5
Record5-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game90.7
Allowed / game88.6
ItalyLega ARound 9· Palazzo dello Sport
Domestic2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Maxima Roma host Treviso in the Lega Basket Serie A. Pythia makes Maxima Roma the favourite at 65% and projects 89-85, about 175 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Maxima Roma are 5-2 this season (88.1 scored, 83.7 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Treviso are 5-2 this season (90.7 scored, 88.6 allowed a game), form LWWWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maxima Roma win
64.6%fair 1.55
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Treviso win
35.4%fair 2.82
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Maxima RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRoma
Date
Competition
BC Roma
#13
W
96-95
96
95
+1
91avg 80
H11/10
Lega A
Tenerife
#5
L
71-96
71
96
-25
63avg 80
A14/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
W
89-75
89
75
+14
81avg 80
A18/10
Lega A
Venezia
#14
W
90-79
90
79
+11
89avg 80
H21/10
Eurocup
Udine
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
76avg 80
H25/10
Lega A
Siauliai
#19
L
93-98
93
98
-5
88avg 80
A28/10
Eurocup
Trento
#11
W
88-62
88
62
+26
81avg 80
A01/11
Lega A
London Lions
#9
W
86-84 OT
86
84
+2
no box
H04/11
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
99-87
99
87
+12
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Frankfurt
#22
W
113-89
113
89
+24
no box
A12/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-33
27-24
25-13
19-25
14-26
19-19
15-20
23-31
22-20
25-18
25-24
17-13
23-18
22-27
19-12
26-22
22-19
13-21
24-18
22-17
23-31
26-18
26-31
18-18
13-10
15-16
22-17
38-19
16-22
26-22
21-11
13-21
23-24
31-20
24-19
21-24
28-14
36-27
26-26
23-22
174.6Avg total
90.6Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.183.7171.9+4.471%
Season at home (4)87.887.8175.5+0.075%
Season away (3)88.778.3167.0+10.367%
Last 10 (10)90.684.0174.6+6.680%
Last 5 (5)95.884.0179.8+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)80.097.0177.0-17.00%
vs Similar ◀ (6)84.286.5170.7-2.367%
vs Weaker (6)95.277.7172.8+17.583%
This opponent (Treviso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TrevisoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTreviso
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
W
99-90
99
90
+9
96avg 78
A26/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
80-72
80
72
+8
74avg 78
A03/05
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
W
78-77
78
77
+1
73avg 78
H10/05
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
109-94
109
94
+15
101avg 78
H26/09
Lega A
Trento
#11
W
93-90
93
90
+3
79avg 78
A03/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
77-106
77
106
-29
62avg 78
A11/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
102-86
102
86
+16
95avg 78
H18/10
Lega A
Venezia
#9
W
97-89 OT
97
89
+8
85avg 78
A25/10
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
81-68
81
68
+13
70avg 78
H31/10
Lega A
Tortona
#12
L
76-87
76
87
-11
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-31
30-20
25-27
26-12
21-15
17-22
13-19
29-16
21-11
17-17
22-21
18-28
29-26
28-19
27-22
25-27
22-16
28-20
20-28
23-26
28-27
11-33
21-20
17-26
24-27
24-20
26-18
28-21
31-21
13-22
21-17
15-20
29-15
18-24
20-22
14-7
20-22
19-22
21-27
16-16
175.1Avg total
89.2Scored
85.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)90.788.6179.3+2.171%
Season at home (3)97.382.7180.0+14.7100%
Season away (4)85.893.0178.8-7.250%
Last 10 (10)89.285.9175.1+3.380%
Last 5 (5)86.687.2173.8-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)77.588.2165.8-10.723%
vs Similar ◀ (14)89.987.5177.4+2.464%
vs Weaker (3)83.381.7165.0+1.767%
This opponent (Maxima Roma) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1301%1352%1403%1455%1507%1559%16011%16512%17012%17511%1809%1857%1905%1953%2002%2051%2101%2150%220
1%1353%1457%15511%16512%1759%1855%1952%2051%215
Pythia expects about 175 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%).
Over/Under 168
Over 168
65.1%
Under 168
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
53.2%
Under 173
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
41.2%
Under 178
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Maxima Roma total 84.5
Over 84.5
68.1%
Under 84.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maxima Roma total 88.5
Over 88.5
53.7%
Under 88.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maxima Roma total 92.5
Over 92.5
38.8%
Under 92.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treviso total 80.5
Over 80.5
67.0%
Under 80.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treviso total 84.5
Over 84.5
52.0%
Under 84.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treviso total 88.5
Over 88.5
36.9%
Under 88.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-301%-271%-242%-212%-183%-154%-126%-98%-69%-36%+010%+310%+69%+97%+126%+155%+183%+213%+242%+271%+301%+330%+36
1%-272%-213%-156%-99%-310%+39%+96%+153%+212%+271%+33
Margin from Maxima Roma's side (positive = Maxima Roma win). Pythia's expected margin is +4.3; Maxima Roma win by 1+ in 57% of simulations.
Spread Maxima Roma -3
MRO -3
56.2%
TRV +3
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
MRO
No market prices yet.
TRV
No market prices yet.
Spread Maxima Roma 0
MRO 0
64.6%
TRV 0
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
MRO
No market prices yet.
TRV
No market prices yet.
Spread Maxima Roma +3
MRO +3
72.7%
TRV -3
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
MRO
No market prices yet.
TRV
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: -1.4-1.4Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +1.2+1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: -1.4-1.4Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +1.2+1.2
Maxima RomaTreviso
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Maxima RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Roma
#13
L
52-57
52
57
-5
H11/10
Lega A
Tenerife
#5
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A14/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A18/10
Lega A
Venezia
#14
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H21/10
Eurocup
Udine
#8
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H25/10
Lega A
Siauliai
#19
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A28/10
Eurocup
Trento
#11
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A01/11
Lega A
London Lions
#9
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H04/11
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H08/11
Lega A
Frankfurt
#22
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A12/11
Eurocup
87.8Avg total
44.9Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (14)44.841.486.1+3.450%-
Last 30 at home (7)46.443.690.0+2.929%-
Last 30 away (7)43.139.182.3+4.071%-
Last 10 (10)44.942.987.8+2.040%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.541.078.5-3.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)42.544.887.3-2.317%-
vs Weaker (6)49.538.087.5+11.583%-
This opponent (Treviso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TrevisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A26/04
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A03/05
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H10/05
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
57-45
57
45
+12
H26/09
Lega A
Trento
#11
W
50-36
50
36
+14
A03/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A11/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H18/10
Lega A
Venezia
#9
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A25/10
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H31/10
Lega A
Tortona
#12
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A08/11
Lega A
87.8Avg total
44.8Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.243.684.8-2.437%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.941.984.8+0.953%-
Last 30 away (15)39.545.384.9-5.820%-
Last 10 (10)44.843.087.8+1.870%-
Last 5 (5)43.446.690.0-3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)38.245.283.4-7.18%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)43.143.086.1+0.157%-
vs Weaker (3)45.339.785.0+5.767%-
This opponent (Maxima Roma) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Maxima Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Maxima Roma: 86.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.118.7
50.4%
54.3%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.210.8
39.7%
34.3%32.4
🏀 Free throws22.016.4
74.5%
74.6%16.4
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trevisotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Treviso: 90.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.6 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.524.3
54.6%
54.3%48.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.27.2
32.4%
34.3%21.6
🏀 Free throws28.620.6
72.0%
74.6%20.6
They take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Maxima Roma
WWWWLWWWLW
Treviso
LWWWLWWWWW
#4
League position
#5
+4.3
Net rating
+5.8
99.0
Offensive rating
98.2
94.8
Defensive rating
92.4
54.3%
Effective FG%
52.6%
49.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
14.7%
Turnover %
12.8%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.43
39.7%
3-point %
32.4%
64.1%
Assist %
55.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence99.0 · 98.2Defence94.8 · 92.4Shooting54.3% · 52.6%3-point %39.7% · 32.4%Ball care14.7% · 12.8%Free throws0.34 · 0.43Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Maxima Roma   ■ Treviso
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Maxima Roma wins
0
Treviso wins
No previous meetings.
Maxima Romalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AFrankfurt113-89
08/11/26HCantu99-87
04/11/26HLondon Lions86-84 OT
01/11/26ATrento88-62
28/10/26ASiauliai93-98
25/10/26HUdine81-75
21/10/26HVenezia90-79
18/10/26ATortona89-75
14/10/26ATenerife71-96
11/10/26HBC Roma96-95
Trevisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ATortona76-87
31/10/26HReggiana81-68
25/10/26AVenezia97-89 OT
18/10/26HUdine102-86
11/10/26AOlimpia Milano77-106
03/10/26ATrento93-90
26/09/26HBC Roma109-94
10/05/26HReggiana78-77
03/05/26ACantu80-72
26/04/26ABrescia99-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Maxima Roma
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW71%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %71%75%67%
Points / game88.187.888.7
Allowed / game83.787.878.3
Point differential+4.4+0.0+10.3
Avg total171.9175.5167.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%25%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Treviso
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL71%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%100%50%
Points / game90.797.385.8
Allowed / game88.682.793.0
Point differential+2.1+14.7-7.2
Avg total179.3180.0178.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
4 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
5 Treviso75271%90.788.6+2.1
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
8 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati71614%81.692.0-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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