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Mersin SK vs Kecioren Baglum Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 13:30
Projected 100-81
Projected total 180.9
Final 89-120
23-35 24-32 25-30 17-23
Position#4
Record8-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game77.2
Mersin SK
Turkey
Vs
95%
■ MES 95%■ KECI 5%
Pythia win probability
Kecioren Baglum 🏆
Turkey
Position#17
Record1-9
FormLLLLL
Points / game84.1
Allowed / game88.6
TurkeyTBLRound 11· Servet Tazegül Spor Salonu
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Mersin SK will host Kecioren Baglum in the TBL on 14 November 2026, and the Pythia model designates Mersin SK as the clear favourite, assigning them a 96% win probability versus 4% for Kecioren Baglum, a reflection of Mersin's 8-1 record, 89.0 points per game and 77.2 allowed per game, while Kecioren Baglum sits at 1-9 with 84.1 points per game and 88.6 allowed per game; Mersin's flawless 4-0 home record, 93.5 points per game and 74.8 allowed per game further reinforce this edge, whereas Kecioren Baglum has gone 0-5 on the road, scoring 81.0 points per game and conceding 88.8; Mersin's last five games include a 100-65 home win over Ankara Kolejliler and a 85-73 away win over Kahramanmaras, while Kecioren Baglum's last five have been five straight defeats, the most recent being a 96-99 loss to Harem Spor at home; the projected score is 99-79, with a projected total of 177.8 points, and the model predicts a 1% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mersin SK winLost
94.5%fair 1.06
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Kecioren Baglum winWon
5.5%fair 18.33
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mersin SKTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSK
Date
Competition
Trabzonspor
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
79avg 84
A10/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
MKE Ankaragucu
#13
W
100-70
100
70
+30
111avg 84
A19/09
TBL
Konya BBSK
#16
W
87-82
87
82
+5
88avg 84
H26/09
TBL
iLab Basketbol
#9
W
81-78
81
78
+3
84avg 84
A04/10
TBL
Gaziantep
#5
W
92-70
92
70
+22
87avg 84
H08/10
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
W
85-77
85
77
+8
89avg 84
A11/10
TBL
Darussafaka
#11
W
95-82
95
82
+13
93avg 84
H18/10
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
W
85-73
85
73
+12
89avg 84
A24/10
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
W
100-65
100
65
+35
102avg 84
H31/10
TBL
Balikesir
#14
L
76-98
76
98
-22
no box
A08/11
TBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-25
13-24
22-17
25-24
38-18
17-23
29-17
16-12
15-26
24-11
24-26
24-19
21-23
23-14
19-23
18-18
27-13
19-15
28-16
18-26
20-19
16-21
20-16
29-21
24-21
26-19
24-22
21-20
28-18
14-20
24-22
19-13
17-22
27-18
34-15
22-10
19-28
23-31
14-23
20-16
166.6Avg total
88.1Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)89.077.2166.2+11.889%
Season at home (4)93.574.8168.2+18.8100%
Season away (5)85.479.2164.6+6.280%
Last 10 (10)88.178.5166.6+9.680%
Last 5 (5)88.279.0167.2+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)80.090.7170.7-10.717%
vs Similar (10)91.287.6178.8+3.660%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)88.980.8169.6+8.175%
This opponent (Kecioren Baglum) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kecioren BaglumTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBaglum
Date
Competition
Gaziantep
#5
W
82-68
82
68
+14
78avg 75
H12/09
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
84-86
84
86
-2
74avg 75
A20/09
TBL
Darussafaka
#11
L
83-91
83
91
-8
76avg 75
H26/09
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
L
72-85
72
85
-13
66avg 75
A03/10
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
L
90-95
90
95
-5
89avg 75
H07/10
TBL
Balikesir
#14
L
92-94
92
94
-2
90avg 75
A11/10
TBL
Goztepe
#2
L
84-103
84
103
-19
76avg 75
A17/10
TBL
Final Spor
#7
L
85-89
85
89
-4
86avg 75
H24/10
TBL
CO Basket
#12
L
73-76
73
76
-3
69avg 75
A31/10
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
96-99
96
99
-3
no box
H07/11
TBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-15
19-13
21-21
26-19
19-19
19-21
22-20
24-26
20-30
27-18
14-17
22-26
17-27
16-17
18-20
21-21
27-29
26-23
22-17
15-26
20-29
23-15
25-26
24-24
18-19
18-34
25-27
23-23
26-14
17-32
23-14
19-29
19-21
19-19
18-9
17-27
17-30
27-24
25-19
27-26
172.7Avg total
84.1Scored
88.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)84.188.6172.7-4.510%
Season at home (5)87.288.4175.6-1.220%
Season away (5)81.088.8169.8-7.80%
Last 10 (10)84.188.6172.7-4.510%
Last 5 (5)86.092.2178.2-6.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)80.785.0165.7-4.317%
vs Similar (7)78.778.3157.0+0.443%
vs Weaker (17)79.167.0146.1+12.176%
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 156Actual: Over 156
Over 156
94.1%
Under 156
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
89.5%
Under 161
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166Actual: Over 166
Over 166
82.5%
Under 166
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mersin SK total 78Actual: Mersin SK over 78
Over 78
98.7%
Under 78
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mersin SK total 82Actual: Mersin SK over 82
Over 82
96.6%
Under 82
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mersin SK total 86Actual: Mersin SK over 86
Over 86
92.4%
Under 86
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kecioren Baglum total 74.5Actual: Kecioren Baglum over 74.5
Over 74.5
74.1%
Under 74.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kecioren Baglum total 78.5Actual: Kecioren Baglum over 78.5
Over 78.5
59.7%
Under 78.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kecioren Baglum total 82.5Actual: Kecioren Baglum over 82.5
Over 82.5
43.8%
Under 82.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mersin SK -3Actual: Kecioren Baglum +3
MES -3
92.3%
KECI +3
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
MES
No market prices yet.
KECI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mersin SK 0Actual: Kecioren Baglum 0
MES 0
94.5%
KECI 0
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
MES
No market prices yet.
KECI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mersin SK +3Actual: Kecioren Baglum -3
MES +3
96.5%
KECI -3
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
MES
No market prices yet.
KECI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.9-2.9
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: -2.9-2.9
Mersin SKKecioren Baglum
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mersin SKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trabzonspor
#6
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A10/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
MKE Ankaragucu
#13
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A19/09
TBL
Konya BBSK
#16
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H26/09
TBL
iLab Basketbol
#9
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A04/10
TBL
Gaziantep
#5
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H08/10
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A11/10
TBL
Darussafaka
#11
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H18/10
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A24/10
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H31/10
TBL
Balikesir
#14
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A08/11
TBL
84.0Avg total
43.1Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.344.988.2-1.647%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.741.989.6+5.964%-
Last 30 away (16)39.447.586.9-8.131%-
Last 10 (10)43.140.984.0+2.270%-
Last 5 (5)42.843.486.2-0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)38.247.385.5-9.217%-
vs Similar (10)47.843.090.8+4.870%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)45.443.588.9+1.962%-
This opponent (Kecioren Baglum) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kecioren BaglumLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gaziantep
#5
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H12/09
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A20/09
TBL
Darussafaka
#11
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H26/09
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A03/10
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H07/10
TBL
Balikesir
#14
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A11/10
TBL
Goztepe
#2
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A17/10
TBL
Final Spor
#7
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/10
TBL
CO Basket
#12
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A31/10
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
44-54
44
54
-10
H07/11
TBL
85.9Avg total
41.0Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)40.037.777.7+2.352%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.438.581.9+4.956%-
Last 30 away (13)35.836.772.5-0.946%-
Last 10 (10)41.044.985.9-3.920%-
Last 5 (5)40.847.488.2-6.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)38.344.582.8-6.217%-
vs Similar (7)36.736.072.7+0.729%-
vs Weaker (16)42.035.977.9+6.175%-
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mersin SKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mersin SK: 88.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.420.8
60.5%
53.0%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.910.9
40.5%
33.0%32.7
🏀 Free throws18.914.2
75.1%
71.2%14.2
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kecioren Baglumtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kecioren Baglum: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.822.0
55.3%
53.0%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.87.1
34.1%
33.0%21.3
🏀 Free throws23.517.7
75.3%
71.2%17.7
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mersin SK
LWWWWWWWWL
Kecioren Baglum
LLLLLLLLLW
#4
League position
#17
+13.7
Net rating
-5.1
107.1
Offensive rating
94.8
93.4
Defensive rating
99.9
60.6%
Effective FG%
53.9%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
15.7%
Turnover %
17.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.39
40.5%
3-point %
34.1%
77.9%
Assist %
60.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence107.1 · 94.8Defence93.4 · 99.9Shooting60.6% · 53.9%3-point %40.5% · 34.1%Ball care15.7% · 17.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)80% · 10%
■ Mersin SK   ■ Kecioren Baglum
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Mersin SK wins
0
Kecioren Baglum wins
No previous meetings.
Mersin SKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ABalikesir76-98
31/10/26HAnkara Kolejliler100-65
24/10/26AKahramanmaras85-73
18/10/26HDarussafaka95-82
11/10/26AFenerbahce 285-77
08/10/26HGaziantep92-70
04/10/26AiLab Basketbol81-78
26/09/26HKonya BBSK87-82
19/09/26AMKE Ankaragucu100-70
10/05/26ATrabzonspor80-90
Kecioren Baglumlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HHarem Spor96-99
31/10/26ACO Basket73-76
24/10/26HFinal Spor85-89
17/10/26AGoztepe84-103
11/10/26ABalikesir92-94
07/10/26HAnkara Kolejliler90-95
03/10/26AKahramanmaras72-85
26/09/26HDarussafaka83-91
20/09/26AFenerbahce 284-86
12/09/26HGaziantep82-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mersin SK
TBL 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL89%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %89%100%80%
Points / game89.093.585.4
Allowed / game77.274.879.2
Point differential+11.8+18.8+6.2
Avg total166.2168.2164.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Kecioren Baglum
TBL 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL10%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %10%20%0%
Points / game84.187.281.0
Allowed / game88.688.488.8
Point differential-4.5-1.2-7.8
Avg total172.7175.6169.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (6)0% (3)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Mersin SK98189%89.077.2+11.8
2 Harem Spor108280%82.370.1+12.2
3 Goztepe108280%84.975.9+9.0
4 Kahramanmaras108280%83.074.5+8.5
5 Gaziantep107370%80.776.3+4.4
6 Final Spor106460%80.978.7+2.2
7 Buyukcekmece95456%79.777.6+2.1
8 OGM Ormanspor105550%82.880.4+2.4
9 iLab Basketbol105550%84.185.0-0.9
10 Fenerbahce 294544%73.978.7-4.8
11 CO Basket114736%72.682.8-10.2
12 Darussafaka93633%76.083.4-7.4
13 MKE Ankaragucu93633%79.289.8-10.6
14 Balikesir103730%75.778.1-2.4
15 Ankara Kolejliler113827%73.580.3-6.8
16 Konya BBSK92722%80.284.9-4.7
17 Kecioren Baglum101910%84.188.6-4.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mersin SK2324251789
Kecioren Baglum35323023120
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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