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Michigan State vs Quinnipiac Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 80-67
Projected total 146.6
Final 96-59
52-24 44-35
Position#27
Record-
FormLLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Michigan State 🏆
USA
Vs
88%
■ MICH 88%■ QUIN 12%
Pythia win probability
Quinnipiac
USA
Position#174
Record-
FormLLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Michigan State hosts Quinnipiac on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Spartans the clear favourite, rating them 88% to win largely because of their dominant season performance and recent form. The Spartans have won 2 of their last 5 games, including a 77-69 home victory over Louisville on 21 March 2026 and a 92-67 win at North Dakota State on 19 March 2026, while they suffered a 63-67 away loss to UConn on 27 March 2026. Quinnipiac has won only 1 of their last 5, with a 67-63 away win over Canisius on 1 March 2026, a 75-77 home loss to Marist on 7 March 2026, and a 76-78 away defeat to Niagara on 27 February 2026. The Pythia model gives Michigan State an 88% chance of victory against Quinnipiac's 12%, projects a final score of 80-67 and a total of 146.6 points, with a 40% probability that the combined score will exceed the 150.5-point line, and a 3% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
88.1%fair 1.14
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Quinnipiac winLost
11.9%fair 8.39
Best odds65.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCLA
#73
W
82-59
82
59
+23
H18/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
66-60
66
60
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
76-74
76
74
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
1H
2H
43-23
39-36
23-26
43-34
36-39
40-35
45-37
32-27
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
151.3Avg total
78.8Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.872.5151.3+6.370%
Last 5 (5)79.276.2155.4+3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)74.080.2154.2-6.225%
vs Similar (9)71.866.3138.1+5.467%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)83.668.1151.6+15.588%
This opponent (Quinnipiac) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
QuinnipiacUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacred Heart
#262
L
91-98
91
98
-7
H31/01
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
72-65
72
65
+7
A01/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
75-60
75
60
+15
H06/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H07/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
74-62
74
62
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H15/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
76-78 OT
76
78
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A01/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
75-77
75
77
-2
H07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
50-47
41-51
33-41
39-24
41-31
34-29
36-24
20-31
34-27
40-35
21-21
28-35
36-39
43-46
32-31
36-37
29-30
38-33
32-42
43-35
141.3Avg total
71.4Scored
69.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.469.9141.3+1.550%
Last 5 (5)69.271.8141.0-2.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)63.085.5148.5-22.50%
vs Similar (12)73.673.0146.6+0.642%
vs Weaker (16)78.668.7147.2+9.981%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
52.3%
@ 1.50-10.4pp
Under 145.5
47.7%
@ 2.60+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 150.5 · main lineActual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
40.1%
@ 1.93-9.2pp
Under 150.5
59.9%
@ 1.90+9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
Under
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
28.9%
@ 2.60-7.3pp
Under 155.5
71.1%
@ 1.45+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.52
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan State total 86Actual: Michigan State over 86
Over 86
26.6%
Under 86
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan State total 90 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 90
Over 90
14.9%
@ 1.85-35.1pp
Under 90
85.1%
@ 1.85+35.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Michigan State total 93.5Actual: Michigan State over 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
Quinnipiac total 56Actual: Quinnipiac over 56
Over 56
85.8%
Under 56
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Quinnipiac total 60 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac under 60
Over 60
74.6%
@ 1.85+24.6pp
Under 60
25.4%
@ 1.85-24.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Quinnipiac total 64Actual: Quinnipiac under 64
Over 64
59.8%
Under 64
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan State -33Actual: Michigan State -33
MICH -33
no forecast
@ 2.30
QUIN +33
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
2.30
QUIN
Bet365
1.55
Spread Michigan State -30 · main lineActual: Michigan State -30
MICH -30
no forecast
@ 1.92
QUIN +30
no forecast
@ 1.84
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
QUIN
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Spread Michigan State -27Actual: Michigan State -27
MICH -27
no forecast
@ 1.60
QUIN +27
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
1.60
QUIN
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.8+2.81st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: +3.5+3.52nd half: +0.6+0.6
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.8+2.81st half: +1.1+1.12nd half2nd half: +3.5+3.52nd half: +0.6+0.6
Michigan StateQuinnipiac
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCLA
#73
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H18/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
23-26
23
26
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A27/02
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
69.2Avg total
36.0Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)36.233.069.2+3.257%33%
Last 30 at home (18)37.331.368.7+6.072%28%
Last 30 away (12)34.635.570.1-0.933%42%
Last 10 (10)36.033.269.2+2.850%40%
Last 5 (5)36.435.471.8+1.040%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.038.572.5-4.525%50%
vs Similar (9)33.632.165.7+1.444%22%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)38.232.270.4+6.071%35%
This opponent (Quinnipiac) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
QuinnipiacLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacred Heart
#262
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H31/01
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A01/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H06/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A14/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
D
21-21
21
21
+0
H15/02
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A01/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H07/03
NCAA
67.7Avg total
34.4Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 73.5
Last 30 (30)36.334.470.7+1.853%40%
Last 30 at home (15)36.433.169.5+3.353%40%
Last 30 away (15)36.135.771.9+0.453%40%
Last 10 (10)34.433.367.7+1.150%40%
Last 5 (5)30.032.662.6-2.620%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)29.541.571.0-12.00%50%
vs Similar (12)34.636.871.3-2.242%50%
vs Weaker (16)38.431.870.2+6.669%31%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Michigan State win
MICH win
no forecast
@ 1.01
QUIN win
no forecast
@ 16.00
1st half Spread Michigan State -14.5 · main lineActual: Michigan State -14.5
MICH -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
QUIN +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
Michigan State 1st half total 44 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 44
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Quinnipiac 1st half total 29.5 · main lineActual: Quinnipiac under 29.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.02
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Michigan State -15.5Actual: Michigan State -15.5
MICH -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
QUIN +15.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Michigan State -13.5Actual: Michigan State -13.5
MICH -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
QUIN +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Michigan State -16.5Actual: Michigan State -16.5
MICH -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
QUIN +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Michigan State -17.5Actual: Michigan State -17.5
MICH -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
QUIN +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.42
1st half Spread Michigan State -18.5Actual: Michigan State -18.5
MICH -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
QUIN +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Michigan State (regulation)
MICH
no forecast
@ 1.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
QUIN
no forecast
@ 15.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MICH win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
QUIN win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MICH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: QUIN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Quinnipiac +2278.2%3.50
Bet365
3.50		----+51.6ppLost
Quinnipiac +2380.7%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+51.2ppLost
Quinnipiac +21.576.2%3.65
Bet365
3.65		----+50.7ppLost
Quinnipiac +22.578.8%3.25
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.20		---+50.3ppLost
Quinnipiac +19.570.5%4.50
Bet365
4.50		----+50.0ppLost
Quinnipiac +2483.0%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+50.0ppLost
Quinnipiac +23.581.2%2.95
Betano
3.00
Bet365
2.90		---+49.9ppLost
Quinnipiac +2585.1%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+49.3ppLost
Quinnipiac +24.583.4%2.70
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.65		---+49.1ppLost
Michigan State under 85.571.0%2.70
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.65		---+37.1ppLost
Michigan State under 87.577.5%2.25
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.20		---+36.8ppLost
Michigan State under 86.574.3%2.40
Betano
2.40		----+36.7ppLost
Michigan State under 88.580.4%2.07
Betano
2.07		----+35.7ppLost
Michigan State under 9085.1%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+35.1ppLost
Michigan State under 90.585.5%1.79
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75		--+34.6ppLost
Michigan State under 89.583.1%1.88
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		-+34.1ppLost
Michigan State under 91.587.6%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+31.2ppLost
Quinnipiac over 59.575.4%1.81
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78		--+24.6ppLost
Quinnipiac over 6074.6%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+24.6ppLost
Quinnipiac over 60.572.2%1.88
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83		-+22.9ppLost
Quinnipiac over 58.578.5%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+22.1ppWon
Quinnipiac over 57.581.3%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47		---+19.3ppWon
Quinnipiac over 56.583.8%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+19.3ppWon
Quinnipiac over 55.586.2%1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30		---+16.5ppWon
Under 15570.5%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+8.0ppPush
Under 15672.6%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+7.7ppWon
Under 155.571.1%1.45
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.45		---+7.3ppWon
Under 156.573.2%1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40		---+7.1ppWon
Under 15774.6%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+7.1ppWon
Under 15876.6%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+6.6ppWon
Under 157.575.1%1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34		---+6.4ppWon
Under 158.577.0%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+5.6ppWon
Under 160.580.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+4.4ppWon
Under 159.578.8%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+3.5ppWon
Under 175.596.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.2ppWon
Under 170.592.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+3.1ppWon
Under 174.595.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.7ppWon
Under 169.591.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.3ppWon
Under 165.587.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+2.2ppWon
Under 164.586.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+1.5ppWon
Over 124.591.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.4ppWon
Over 125.590.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.5ppWon
Over 129.585.3%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----5.0ppWon
Over 130.583.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----5.9ppWon
Over 134.576.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----8.6ppWon
Over 135.575.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----10.5ppWon
Michigan State over 70.583.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.5ppWon
Quinnipiac under 75.581.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.9ppWon
Michigan State over 71.580.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----11.7ppWon
Michigan State over 72.577.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----13.8ppWon
Quinnipiac under 73.575.7%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----14.7ppWon
Michigan State over 73.574.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----16.2ppWon
Michigan State over 74.571.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----18.4ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Michigan State wins
0
Quinnipiac wins
No previous meetings.
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
01/03/26AIndiana77-64
27/02/26APurdue76-74
22/02/26HOhio State66-60
18/02/26HUCLA82-59
Quinnipiaclast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HMarist75-77
01/03/26ACanisius67-63
27/02/26ANiagara76-78 OT
22/02/26HFairfield79-85
15/02/26HMerrimack Warriors49-56
14/02/26ASiena74-62
07/02/26HNiagara56-55
06/02/26HCanisius75-60
01/02/26AFairfield72-65
31/01/26HSacred Heart91-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 150.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Quinnipiac
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 150.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State524496
Quinnipiac243559
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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