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Michigan State vs UCLA Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 82-59
43-23 39-36
Position#29
Record20-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game66.7
vs
Position#73
Record17-8
FormWLWWL
Points / game77.9
Allowed / game70.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Michigan State v UCLA
13 Mar 2026
MICH84
UCLA88
17 Feb 2026
MICH82
UCLA59
18 Mar 2021
MICH80
UCLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
UCLA winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#251
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H08/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
81-60
81
60
+21
H14/01
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
80-63
80
63
+17
A17/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
68-52
68
52
+16
A21/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
91-48
91
48
+43
H24/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
88-79 OT
88
79
+9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
71-83
71
83
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
73-76
73
76
-3
A05/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
85-82 OT
85
82
+3
H08/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
71-92
71
92
-21
A14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-35
48-31
39-32
42-28
39-31
41-32
28-26
40-26
46-23
45-25
28-37
45-36
26-42
45-41
21-32
52-44
35-39
36-32
34-51
37-41
148.5Avg total
78.4Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)78.866.7145.5+12.180%
Season at home (16)80.465.8146.2+14.688%
Season away (9)76.068.2144.2+7.867%
Last 10 (10)78.470.1148.5+8.370%
Last 5 (5)77.682.4160.0-4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)72.077.0149.0-5.033%
vs Similar (9)70.866.4137.2+4.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)82.665.6148.1+17.094%
This opponent (UCLA) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UCLAUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maryland
#305
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H11/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A15/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
74-86
74
86
-12
A17/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
69-67
69
67
+2
H21/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
71-64
71
64
+7
H24/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
73-57
73
57
+16
A29/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
97-98 OT
97
98
-1
H31/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
98-66
98
66
+32
H04/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
77-73
77
73
+4
H08/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
56-86
56
86
-30
A14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-21
29-34
29-23
42-37
36-42
38-44
32-32
37-35
41-31
30-33
36-22
37-35
36-30
40-46
52-40
46-26
30-34
47-39
38-40
18-46
146.5Avg total
75.3Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)77.970.5148.4+7.468%
Season at home (16)82.267.3149.5+14.988%
Season away (9)70.376.1146.4-5.833%
Last 10 (10)75.371.2146.5+4.170%
Last 5 (5)80.276.0156.2+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)65.576.0141.5-10.525%
vs Similar (10)73.577.1150.6-3.630%
vs Weaker (16)82.163.7145.8+18.4100%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -2.4-2.41st half: +5.3+5.32nd half2nd half: +9.5+9.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -2.4-2.41st half: +5.3+5.32nd half2nd half: +9.5+9.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
Michigan StateUCLA
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern
#251
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H08/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H14/01
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A17/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A21/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H24/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
21-32
21
32
-11
A05/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H08/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A14/02
NCAA
67.2Avg total
32.4Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.032.368.3+3.857%-
Last 30 at home (20)37.431.869.1+5.665%-
Last 30 away (10)33.433.366.7+0.140%-
Last 10 (10)32.434.867.2-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)28.840.269.0-11.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.737.369.0-5.733%-
vs Similar (9)32.233.465.7-1.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)38.730.869.5+7.872%-
This opponent (UCLA) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UCLALast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maryland
#305
W
38-21
38
21
+17
H11/01
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
29-23
29
23
+6
A15/01
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H21/01
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H24/01
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
36-22
36
22
+14
A29/01
NCAA
Indiana
#145
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H31/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H04/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H08/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A14/02
NCAA
68.3Avg total
36.8Scored
31.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.832.869.6+3.960%-
Last 30 at home (19)38.731.269.9+7.574%-
Last 30 away (11)33.535.669.1-2.236%-
Last 10 (10)36.831.568.3+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)38.433.271.6+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)33.836.270.0-2.50%-
vs Similar (10)32.536.669.1-4.140%-
vs Weaker (16)40.229.669.8+10.688%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan State wins
2
UCLA wins
DateGameScore
05/02/25UCLA v Michigan State63-61
19/03/21Michigan State v UCLA80-86 OT
27/11/19UCLA v Michigan State62-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26AWisconsin71-92
08/02/26HIllinois85-82 OT
05/02/26AMinnesota73-76
31/01/26HMichigan71-83
27/01/26ARutgers88-79 OT
24/01/26HMaryland91-48
21/01/26AOregon68-52
17/01/26AWashington80-63
14/01/26HIndiana81-60
08/01/26HNorthwestern76-66
UCLAlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26AMichigan56-86
08/02/26HWashington77-73
04/02/26HRutgers98-66
31/01/26HIndiana97-98 OT
29/01/26AOregon73-57
24/01/26HNorthwestern71-64
21/01/26HPurdue69-67
17/01/26AOhio State74-86
15/01/26APenn State71-60
11/01/26HMaryland67-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL80%
HomeWWWLW88%
AwayWWWLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %80%88%67%
Points / game78.880.476.0
Allowed / game66.765.868.2
Point differential+12.1+14.6+7.8
Avg total145.5146.2144.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%69%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %8%6%11%
UCLA
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL68%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %68%88%33%
Points / game77.982.270.3
Allowed / game70.567.376.1
Point differential+7.4+14.9-5.8
Avg total148.4149.5146.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%62%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %4%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan2625196%90.668.8+21.8
2 Nebraska2522388%79.466.0+13.4
3 Illinois2621581%84.268.2+16.0
4 Purdue2621581%82.569.5+13.1
5 Michigan State2520580%78.866.7+12.1
6 Iowa2518772%77.064.9+12.1
7 Wisconsin2518772%83.775.6+8.1
8 USC2518772%81.375.8+5.4
9 UCLA2517868%77.970.5+7.4
10 Indiana2617965%80.371.3+9.0
11 Ohio State2516964%81.073.6+7.4
12 Washington26131350%76.872.4+4.4
13 Minnesota25111444%71.068.9+2.0
14 Penn State26111542%75.479.0-3.6
15 Rutgers25101540%70.075.6-5.6
16 Maryland25101540%71.478.2-6.8
17 Northwestern26101638%74.073.0+1.0
18 Oregon2591636%72.274.9-2.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State433982
UCLA233659
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