Minnesota faces Southern Univ. in the NCAA on 12 November 2026, with the model clearly favouring the Gophers at 98% thanks to a flawless 3-0 record, 74.7 points scored and 57.7 allowed per game, and a league position of 78, while Southern Univ. sits at 399 with 0-4, 60.2 points scored and 87.5 allowed. Minnesota has won both of its home games, averaging 80.5 points and 56.0 allowed, and won four of its last five, including a 76-62 home win over St. Thomas and an 85-50 victory over North Dakota; Southern Univ. has lost all five of its recent road outings, most notably a 47-84 defeat to Iowa State. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 86-60 score, 146.2 total points, and a 53% chance that Minnesota will cover the -24.5 line, while the over on the 140.0 total has a 65% probability; the game has a 1% chance of overtime. Minnesota's dominant season numbers suggest a decisive win, and the last game they played was a 85-50 triumph over North Dakota.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minnesota winWon
98.1%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+3.9pp
Southern Univ. winLost
1.9%fair 53.54
Best odds34.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-3.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Minnesota) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136.5Actual: Over 136.5
Over 136.5
72.7%
@ 1.55+9.5pp
Under 136.5
27.3%
@ 2.80-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 141.5 · main lineActual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
61.5%
@ 1.91+11.5pp
Under 141.5
38.5%
@ 2.00-11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.81
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
49.2%
@ 2.67+12.7pp
Under 146.5
50.8%
@ 1.52-12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Minnesota total 80Actual: Minnesota over 80
Over 80
72.7%
Under 80
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minnesota total 84 · main lineActual: Minnesota over 84
Over 84
57.3%
@ 1.86+7.4pp
Under 84
42.7%
@ 1.85-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Minnesota total 88Actual: Minnesota over 88
Over 88
40.6%
Under 88
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 54Actual: Southern Univ. over 54
Over 54
75.0%
Under 54
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 58 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. over 58
Over 58
60.1%
@ 1.85+10.1pp
Under 58
39.9%
@ 1.85-10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Southern Univ. total 62Actual: Southern Univ. under 62
Over 62
43.5%
Under 62
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Minnesota -28Actual: Minnesota -28
MINN -28
no forecast
@ 2.20
SOUT +28
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Bet365
2.20
SOUT
Bet365
1.60
Spread Minnesota -25 · main lineActual: Minnesota -25
MINN -25
50.9%
@ 1.88-0.2pp
SOUT +25
49.1%
@ 1.97+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Minnesota -22Actual: Minnesota -22
MINN -22
61.8%
@ 1.52+0.6pp
SOUT +22
38.2%
@ 2.40-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Bet365
1.52
SOUT
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MinnesotaSouthern Univ.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Minnesota over 79.5
73.7%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Minnesota over 78.5
76.9%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Minnesota over 77.5
79.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Over 134
78.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
78.6%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Minnesota over 76.5
82.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Over 133
80.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 54.5
72.5%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Over 137.5
70.6%
1.53
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 136.5
72.7%
1.46
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 132.5
80.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Minnesota over 80.5
70.2%
1.50
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Over 135.5
74.8%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Minnesota over 73.5
89.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
76.7%
1.36
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Minnesota over 72.5
91.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 130.5
83.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Minnesota over 71.5
92.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Minnesota (regulation)
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 52.5
78.8%
1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 53.5
75.8%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 136
74.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Over 137
72.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Minnesota over 70.5
93.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Minnesota over 75.5
85.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Minnesota over 74.5
87.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 51.5
81.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 135
76.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 125.5
90.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Minnesota win
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Minnesota -4.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Minnesota -17
77.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Minnesota -16.5
78.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Minnesota -14.5
82.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Minnesota -18.5
72.5%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Minnesota -17.5
75.4%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Minnesota -9.5
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Minnesota -19
71.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Minnesota -18
74.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Minnesota under 99.5
91.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Minnesota under 97.5
88.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 72.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Minnesota under 95.5
83.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 165.5
88.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 70.5
84.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Minnesota under 92.5
75.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Minnesota under 93.5
78.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 67.5
76.1%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Minnesota under 91.5
72.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 68.5
79.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Under 160.5
81.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 66.5
72.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Under 155.5
71.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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