Minnesota hosts St. Thomas (Minn.) on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating the Gophers as the clear favourite, assigning them a 78% chance to win largely because of their dominant 1-0 record, 85.0 points per game and only 50.0 points allowed, placing them 64th in the league. St. Thomas (Minn.) also enters the game undefeated at 1-0, averaging 87.0 points and conceding 78.0, positioned 173rd. Minnesota's single home game saw a 85-50 victory over North Dakota, while their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 67-66 win over Northwestern. St. Thomas's single road outing was a 87-78 win over Presbyterian, and their last five games feature four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 80-67 triumph over South Dakota St. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 79-70 score, a total of 149.0 points, and a 28% probability that Minnesota will cover the -15.0 line; the over on the 149.0 total has a 49% chance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minnesota winWon
77.8%fair 1.29
Best odds1.07
Implied89.8%
Edge-12.0pp
St. Thomas (Minn.) winLost
22.2%fair 4.51
Best odds10.00
Implied10.2%
Edge+12.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Minnesota) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145Actual: Under 145
Over 145
59.4%
@ 1.44-5.2pp
Under 145
40.6%
@ 2.62+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 150 · main lineActual: Under 150
Over 150
46.9%
@ 1.90-3.3pp
Under 150
53.1%
@ 1.91+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.81
Over/Under 155Actual: Under 155
Over 155
34.9%
@ 2.55-1.7pp
Under 155
65.1%
@ 1.47+1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Minnesota total 78.5Actual: Minnesota under 78.5
Over 78.5
51.4%
@ 1.39-13.8pp
Under 78.5
48.6%
@ 2.60+13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Minnesota total 82.5 · main lineActual: Minnesota under 82.5
Over 82.5
35.7%
@ 1.92-13.5pp
Under 82.5
64.3%
@ 1.91+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Minnesota total 86.5Actual: Minnesota under 86.5
Over 86.5
22.2%
@ 2.55-13.3pp
Under 86.5
77.8%
@ 1.40+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 63Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 63
Over 63
76.3%
Under 63
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 67 · main lineActual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 67
Over 67
62.1%
@ 1.85+12.1pp
Under 67
37.9%
@ 1.85-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
St. Thomas (Minn.) total 71Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) under 71
Over 71
46.0%
Under 71
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Minnesota -17.5Actual: St. Thomas (Minn.) +17.5
MINN -17.5
21.6%
@ 2.35-18.4pp
ST. +17.5
78.4%
@ 1.55+18.4pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
ST.
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread Minnesota -14.5 · main lineActual: St. Thomas (Minn.) +14.5
MINN -14.5
30.1%
@ 1.92-20.1pp
ST. +14.5
69.9%
@ 1.93+20.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
ST.
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Minnesota -11.5Actual: Minnesota -11.5
MINN -11.5
40.0%
@ 1.54-20.6pp
ST. +11.5
60.0%
@ 2.35+20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
ST.
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MinnesotaSt. Thomas (Minn.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
St. Thomas (Minn.) +15
72.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +16
75.0%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +17.5
78.4%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +15.5
72.9%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.74
-
+18.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +18.5
80.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +18
80.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +17
77.8%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +16.5
75.7%
1.64
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +19.5
83.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +19
82.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +20.5
85.1%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +20
84.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Minnesota under 84.5
71.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +21.5
86.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +21
86.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +22
88.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +22.5
88.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Minnesota under 86.5
77.8%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Minnesota under 85.5
74.7%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Minnesota under 87.5
80.7%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) +24.5
91.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Minnesota under 89.5
85.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Minnesota under 91.5
89.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 63.5
74.0%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Minnesota under 93.5
92.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 64.5
70.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Minnesota under 95.5
95.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Minnesota under 97.5
96.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 62.5
77.1%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Minnesota under 99.5
98.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Minnesota under 101.5
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 60.5
82.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 52.5
95.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 54.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 50.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 58.5
87.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) over 56.5
90.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Minnesota +10.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 157.5
70.2%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 174.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 158
71.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 158.5
72.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
76.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 125.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 165.5
84.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
74.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Under 164.5
82.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Minnesota +6.5
89.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 130.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 134.5
81.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 80.5
84.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
Over 135.5
79.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 78.5
79.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
St. Thomas (Minn.) under 76.5
73.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Minnesota (regulation)
75.5%
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Minnesota win
77.8%
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Pinnacle
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-12.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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